On sequential comparisons of means of first-order autoregressive models

The problem of estimating a linear combination,μ, of means ofp-independent, first-order autoregressive models is considered. Sequential procedures are derived (i) to estimateμ pointwise using the linear combination of sample means, subject to a loss function (squared error plus cost per observation), and (ii) to arrive at a fixed-width confidence interval forμ. It is observed that in the case of point estimation we do not require a sampling scheme, where as in the case of interval estimation we do require a sampling scheme and a scheme similar to the one given in Mukhopadhyay and Liberman (1989) is proposed. All the first order efficiency properties of the sequential procedures involved here are derived. This paper is an extension of results of Sriram (1987) involving one time series to multiple time series. Research supported by AFOSR Grant number 89-0225.     

The Effect of Private-Debt-Underwriting Reputation on Bank Public-Debt Underwriting

We provide evidence that commercial banks extend their reputationin underwriting syndicated loans and private placements (privatedebt) to their bond-underwriting activities. In the absenceof bond market reputation, private-debt-market reputation enablescommercial banks to win underwriting mandates from their loanclients. Furthermore, it allows them to credibly commit to investorsagainst opportunistically using lending information and therebydeliver superior certification benefits in the form of higherissue prices relative to investment-bank underwriters. Thispricing benefit is not offset by higher underwriting fees andthus results in lower total issuance costs for borrowers.(JELG21, G28, L14, L15)     

The response of competitors to announcements of bankruptcy: An empirical examination of contagion and competitive effects

We find, like [Lang, L.H.P., Stulz, R.M., 1992. Contagion and competitive intra-industry effects of bankruptcy announcements: An empirical analysis, Journal of Financial Economics, 32(1), 45–60], that large firm bankruptcies generate a dominant contagion effect. A value-weighted portfolio of competitors' stocks experiences a significant loss of 0.56% in the three days centered around the Chapter 11 announcement. This represents an average loss of $3.32 for all the competitors combined for every dollar lost by the bankrupt firm. In addition, we find that small firm bankruptcies also generate a dominant contagion effect among smaller sized competitors; an equally-weighted portfolio of all competitors has a significant 0.12% drop. In a new approach to separate the contagion and competitive effects, we compare the stock price reactions of competitors who themselves subsequently file for bankruptcy in the next three years (candidates for contagion effect) with those who do not do so (candidates for competitive effect). As expected, candidates for contagion effect experience a significant, negative three-day stock price reaction of −4.68%. However, contrary to expectations, candidates for competitive effect also have a significant, negative return (−0.49%), suggesting that the competitive effect is weak at best since it is dominated by the contagion effect even in this sample. Other procedures to identify candidates for competitive effect generally yield similar findings. Finally, we analyze competitors' stock price reactions based on selected characteristics (e.g., industry concentration, and leverage), with similar results as before. One explanation for the failure to detect a competitive effect is that the impact may already have been incorporated in stock prices prior to the filing for Chapter 11. Consistent with this explanation, we find significant positive stock price reactions by competitor stocks for the hundred days prior to the bankruptcy announcement.     

Auditor realignment and 8−K disclosures—Usefulness for investor decision making

This study extends prior studies on auditor changes by testing (1) whether investors react to 8-K disclosures, and (2) the probability of investors anticipating a potential switch. The study includes 136 firms that both switched and did not switch auditors. It is hypothesized that investors would find it difficult to ascertain the true motives behind auditor changes. Event methodology and logit analysis are used. The results indicate a negative drift in abnormal returns prior to the switch, followed by significant positive abnormal returns on the day of the switch, and a positive drift after the switch.     

An evolutionary model of speculative attacks

We build an evolutionary model of currency crises incorporating learning through imitation and experimentation by heterogeneous agents. Foreign currency speculators in the model interact and learn over time through experimentation. Drawing on results from game theory, we show that the resulting dynamic converges to a unique long run equilibrium, in which the currency is “attacked” if the economic fundamentals are sufficiently adverse. Evolutionary selection is thus shown as a way to resolve the issue of indeterminacy of equilibria associated with models of currency crises.JEL Classification: C63, F31, D83, C72I am grateful to Jasmina Arifovic, Peter Garber, Pravin Krishna, Blake LeBaron, Nidhiya Menon, Srinivas Thiruvadanthai and Tiemen Woutersen for useful remarks and suggestions. All errors remain my own.     

A comparison of the relative costs of financial distress models: artificial neural networks,logit and multivariate discriminant analysis

This study uses two artificial neural networks (ANNs), categorical learning/instar ANNs and probabilistic (PNN) ANNs, suitable for classification and prediction type issues, and compares them to traditional multivariate discriminant analysis (MDA) and logit to examine financial distress one to three years prior to failure. The results indicate that traditional MDA and logit perform best with the lowest overall error rates. However, when the relative error costs are considered, the ANNs perform better than traditional logit or MDA. Also, as the time period moves farther away from the eventual failure date, ANNs perform more accurately and with lower relative error costs than logit or MDA. This supports the conclusion that for auditors and other evaluators interested in early warning techniques, categorical learning network and probabilistic ANNs would be useful. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Empirical investigation of channel reactions to brand introductions

We investigate how incumbent manufacturers and retailers alter their pricing behavior in response to new product introduction. In performing our analysis, we need to be cognizant of the fact that the observed price changes can be due to entry-induced changes in a) demand conditions or b) costs or, on the other hand, to the competitive behavior of c) manufacturers and/or d) the retailer. In order to separate these four changes, we posit that manufacturer and retailer pricing is an outcome of maximizing a combination of shares and profits. This enhanced objective function allows us to measure competitive conduct benchmarked as less or more competitive than under the Bertrand-Nash framework. Our empirical analysis is based on the toothpaste category for the time period January 1993–February 1995. During this period, there were three brand introductions in two rounds of entry. Using the estimates from the demand and the supply model, we compute the changes in the retail and wholesale prices that are attributable to changes in demand conditions, manufacturer and retailer competitive conduct, and cost changes. These results support our conjecture that inferring the change in conduct solely based on a change in observed prices is likely to be erroneous. For the first new brand entry, we find that the brand introduction did not significantly increase competition between manufacturers. As a result, the balance of channel power between the manufacturers and the retailers remained unaltered. Both retailer and manufacturer profit margins increased after the first entry. However, subsequent to the second entry, retailer share of channel profits increased at the expense of the manufacturers; manufacturers even saw a decline in their absolute profit margins. We believe that this research will provide insight for manufacturers and retailers regarding how the various channel participants are likely to react to new product introduction. Furthermore, policymakers interested in understanding competitive reactions to new product introduction should find this research useful.     

The impact of a U.S.–U.K. free trade agreement on workers: a CGE model with worker displacement

Business Economics - On May 5, 2020, the U.S. Trade Representative announced plans to negotiate a free trade agreement with the United Kingdom (USUKFTA). We use GTAP to model the economic...