A Delphi technology forecasting approach using a semi-Markov concept

This paper suggests a technology forecasting approach based on a semi-Markov model, which appropriately describes the probabilistic nature of a sequential technology development process. This approach focuses primarily on the utilization of the information that has been skipped in conventional Delphi survey data. That is, through a simple statistic, the interrelationships among sequential technology developments can be extracted in a formal structure of a semi-Markov model from the original Delphi panel's estimates. A simulation technique is developed to forecast the development process by utilizing the information on such interrelationships. This technique provides a flexible and useful tool for R&D planners or project managers, especially in postanalysis of Delphi forecasting. To make good use of the approach, a computer-based interactive Delphi data analysis system (IDEAS) is implemented in IBM PC.     

Urban Sprawl and Farmland Prices

A theoretical model of farmland valuation is developed to explicitly account for three effects of urban sprawl: conversion of farmland to urban uses, effect on agricultural returns, and speculative effect as represented by farmland conversion risk. This model is estimated using county-level data in the continental United States. Evidence is found for all three effects of urban sprawl on farmland values. Counties more accessible to major urban centers have higher net agricultural returns. Subsidiary evidence supports that the latter effect may be attributed to survival of (or conversion to) high-valued agriculture around urban centers.     

LAND DEVELOPMENT UNDER REGULATION: COMPARISON BETWEEN THE EAST AND WEST SIDES OF THE CASCADE RANGE IN OREGON, WASHINGTON, AND CALIFORNIA

We compare how socioeconomic factors, physical landscape, profit uncertainty, and local land use policies have affected land development on the east and west sides of the Cascade Range in Oregon, Washington, and California. It is found that the west side has more actively planned and regulated land use than the east side. Consequently, the more intense land use regulations on the west side have reduced more land development than on the east side. Risks associated with alternative land uses as well as profits were important in land development decisions of both sides.     

Book-Tax Differences and Inland Revenue Audit Adjustments in New Zealand

Abstract:  Using confidential data from US manufacturing firms' tax returns and Inland Revenue Service (IRS) audit adjustments, Mills (1998) tests, and finds support for, her hypothesis that IRS audit adjustments increase as the book-tax differences increase. We test Mills' hypothesis using confidential data obtained from the New Zealand Inland Revenue (hereafter Inland Revenue). Confidential data provide the key variable of interest, Inland Revenue's proposed audit adjustment, which is not available from public sources. These data provide the exact audit adjustment amounts, eliminating measurement errors inherent in proxy variables, and enable a temporal alignment of the book-tax differences with the Inland Revenue audit adjustments, thereby enhancing the internal validity of the relation between book-tax differences and Inland Revenue audit adjustments. Because the results of our study using New Zealand data, another time period, a more diverse set of firms, and a different institutional environment are consistent with those of Mills, we argue for the generalizability of Mills' hypothesis that proposed audit adjustments are positively related to the excess of book income over taxable income.     

Maximum Eigenvalue Test for Seasonal Cointegrating Ranks*

The maximum eigenvalue (ME) test for seasonal cointegrating ranks is presented using the approach of Cubadda [Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics (2001), Vol. 63, pp. 497–511], which is computationally more efficient than that of Johansen and Schaumburg [Journal of Econometrics (1999), Vol. 88, pp. 301–339]. The asymptotic distributions of the ME test statistics are obtained for several cases that depend on the nature of deterministic terms. Monte Carlo experiments are conducted to evaluate the relative performances of the proposed ME test and the trace test, and we illustrate these tests using a monthly time series.     

Business Ethics in Canada: Distinctiveness and Directions

This article examines the pressures and players that have shaped business ethics in Canadian corporations, and reports on the status of Canadian corporate social performance in 1995. Business in Canada has not been subject, up to 1996, to a powerful national institutional framework such as the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. Consequently, business ethics in Canada have developed primarily in response to broader socio-political and socio-economic factors than in the US, and will probably continue to do so. Interestingly, the issues, policies and practices developed in Canada may provide insights for US corporations as they respond to broadened pressures. Business ethics in Canada, on the other hand, will benefit increasingly from the US experience as pressures grow for national regulation and statutes governing corruption.     

Salesperson's innovation resistance and job satisfaction in intra-organizational diffusion of sales force automation technologies: The case of South Korea

One of the rapidly growing areas in industrial marketing is the application of sales force automation (SFA) technologies to help improve the efficiency of the sales force task. What is often overlooked is that there are some potential negative effects related to SFA technologies that arise when these innovations are forcefully adopted on the individual salesperson. This study empirically examines the psychological and social antecedents of salespeople's resistance toward SFA technologies in South Korea. Unlike previous studies that only looked at adoption, this studies adds to the literature on SFA technologies by looking at resistance toward innovation in the post-adoption or intra-organizational diffusion stage. This study looks at the direct and indirect relationships between innovation resistance and some key constructs such as job satisfaction, job performance, self-efficacy, group-efficacy, innovativeness, and peer usage. This study represents also one of the very few empirical studies conducted on sales force behavior in South Korea and as such may offer some insights on sales force management in collectivist cultures.