New Economic Indicators for Australia, 1949-84

This article attempts to identify and describe the main characteristics of Australia'a business cycles during the period 1949 to 7984 with the aid of leading, coincident, and lagging indicators, using the methodology of the International Economic lndicator project at the Center for lnternational Business Cycle Research, Columbia University, New York. The methodology to identify Australia's classical cycle and growth cycle chronologies is discussed. Reviews are made of the lead-lag patterns of, first, both chronologies in relation to the specific cycles of the individual coincident indicators, and second, the growth chronology in relation to the leading and lagging indicators. Australia's growth cycle chronology is compared with the chronology of other countries, notably of United States, United Kingdom, and Japan. The general uses of an indicator analysis are reviewed. An appendix compares the reference cycle chronologies previously available for Australia and the indicators used to obtain them.     

Towards a tax constitution for Leviathan

This paper attempts to derive normative tax rules based on the constitutional calculus of the typical voter–taxpayer when he predicts that post-constitutional political processes will be dominated by a budget-maximizing Leviathan-like bureaucracy. In this setting, selection of tax institutions becomes part of the apparatus by which Leviathan is constrained. Such an approach generates tax rules strikingly at variance with more conventional norms. In particular, the goal of a ‘comprehensive’ tax base, which informs standard analysis, gives way to a preference for specific limitations on the width of the tax base: moves towards a greater comprehensiveness will lead inexorably to larger public spending, and beyond some point are clearly undesirable. The analysis also implies a rather unconventional defense of progression in the tax structure. An attempt is made to relate the discussion to contemporary tax reform issues.