An empirical comparison of bankruptcy models

Four types of bankruptcy prediction models based on financial statement ratios, cash flows, stock returns, and return standard deviations are compared. Based on a sample of bankruptcies from 1980 to 1991, results indicate that no existing model of bankruptcy adequately captures the data. During the last fiscal year preceding bankruptcy, none of the individual models may be excluded without a loss in explanatory power. If considered in isolation, the cash flow model discriminates most consistently two to three years before bankruptcy. By comparison, the ratio model is the best single model during the year immediately preceding bankruptcy. Quasi-jack-knifing procedures suggest that none of the models can reliably predict bankruptcy more than two years in advance.     

The disclosure of key performance indicators in the public sector

This article investigates the disclosure of key performance indicators in the annual reports of Irish public sector organizations. It begins by discussing the two main driving forces behind public sector bodies disclosing performance information in their annual reports for the first time as well as looking at other contributing factors. The present situation with regard to the disclosure of key performance indicators in the whole of Ireland is then analysed. A number of annual reports from central government departments or agencies, local government bodies, other public sector entities and, in the case of the Republic of Ireland, semi-state organizations are examined to see whether such information is being disclosed and, more importantly, whether performance indicators are being linked to predetermined objectives and targets.