Estimates of the Economic Effects of Sea Level Rise

Regional estimates of direct cost (DC) are commonly used to measure the economic damages of sea level rise. Such estimates suffer from three limitations:(i) values of threatened endowments are not well known, (ii) loss of endowments does not affect consumer prices, and (iii) international trade is disregarded. Results in this paper indicate that these limitations can significantly affect economic assessments of sea level rise. Current uncertainty regarding endowment values (as reflected in two alternative data sets), for example, leads to a 17 percent difference in coastal protection, a 36 percent difference in the amount of land protected, and a 36 percent difference in DC globally. Also, global losses in equivalent variation (EV), a welfare measure that accounts for price changes, are 13 percent higher than DC estimates. Regional EV losses may be up to 10 percent lower than regional DC, however, because international trade tends to redistribute losses from regions with relatively high damages to regions with relatively low damages.     

The Performance Impact of Informal and Formal Institutional Differences in Cross-Border Alliances

This study addresses the simultaneous and diverse effects of differences in informal and formal institutions on cross-border alliances’ financial performance. We utilize data from 405 microfinance institutions (MFIs), based in 74 developing countries, that have alliances with partners from developed countries. We find that the impact of informal institutional differences between MFIs and their cross-border partners is sigmoid-shaped, with performance first increasing, then declining, before improving again as informal institutional differences grow large. By contrast, formal institutional differences appear to be detrimental to MFIs’ performance. Consistent with our prediction, we find that MFIs’ cross-border experience moderates both formal and informal institutional effects.     

Petty corruption: A game-theoretic approach

The paper explores a game-theoretic model of petty corruption involving a sequence of entrepreneurs and a track of bureaucrats. Each entrepreneur's project is approved if and only if it is cleared by each bureaucrat. The project value is stochastic; its value is observed only by the entrepreneur, but its distribution is common knowledge. Each bureaucrat clears the project only if a bribe is paid. The bribe for qualified projects ("extortion") and unqualified projects ("capture") may differ. We identify the nature and welfare implications of different types of equilibria under appropriate technical assumptions on the structure of the game.     

Strategies,Uncertainty and Performance of Small Business Startups

Personal strategies of owners/founders of small business startups are related to performance and to environmental uncertainty. This is done using a longitudinal data set. Personal strategies are operationalized by a behavioral measure of the manners in which small business founders deal with situations. The results suggest a dynamic process between strategy and performance. Business owners that perform poorly employ a Reactive Strategy, with poor performance leading to increased use of reactive behavior. High performing business owners start out focussing on the most crucial issues (Critical Point Strategy), with high performance leading to a more top-down (Complete Planning) approach. These relations are controlled for characteristics of the environment of the firm. Strategy use is dependent upon the type and level of environmental uncertainty. Complete Planning strategy is used less frequently in a fast changing environment and more often in a complex environment. Use of Opportunistic Strategy is negatively related to the complexity of the environment, while the Reactive Strategy is used more frequently in a non-munificent environment. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A Learning-Based Theory of Joint Venture Life-Cycles

We provide a two period, learning-based model of joint venture formation and breakdown. We show that depending on parameter values different dynamic patterns emerge. If the rate of learning is low, then a joint venture forms in both the periods. If the rate of learning is large, then the outcome may either involve joint venture breakdown, or delayed joint venture formation.     

Firm Survival in the Netherlands

The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the dynamics of industrial organization differ in the Netherlands from what has emerged as a Stylized Fact in other countries. Because the Netherlands has pursued a unique set of institutions and policies comprising what has become known as the Polder Model, the factors leading to firm failure may systematically differ from those in other countries. We address this question using a longitudinal database from Statistics Netherlands (CBS) that identifies over two thousand firms in manufacturing and then tracks their performance over time.     

Seven tools for creating adaptive policies

Experience demonstrates that policies crafted to operate within a certain range of conditions are often faced with unexpected challenges outside of that range. The result is that many policies have unintended impacts and do not accomplish their goals. Adaptive policies are designed to function more effectively in complex, dynamic, and uncertain conditions. Based on over a dozen case studies on public policies relating to agriculture and water resources management in Canada and India, we conclude that there are seven tools policymakers should follow to create adaptive policies. Adaptive policies anticipate and plan for the array of conditions that lie ahead: (#1) using integrated and forward-looking analysis; (#2) monitoring key performance indicators to trigger built-in policy adjustments; (#3) undertaking formal policy review and continuous learning; and (#4) using multi-stakeholder deliberation. But not all situations can be anticipated. Unknown unknowns and deep uncertainty will always be part of policymaking. Adaptive policies are able to navigate toward successful outcomes in settings that cannot be anticipated in advance. This can be done by working in concert with certain characteristics of complex adaptive systems and thereby facilitating autonomous actions among stakeholders on the ground. To a degree, adaptive policy tools #3 and #4 can be used toward this purpose, but most directly, such autonomous tools include: (#5) enabling self-organization and social networking; (#6) decentralizing decisionmaking to the lowest and most effective jurisdictional level; and (#7) promoting variation in policy responses. This paper elaborates on these seven tools as a pragmatic guide for policymakers who find themselves working in highly complex, dynamic, and uncertain settings.     

Factors influencing Generation Y consumers’ perceptions of eWOM credibility: a study of the fast-food industry

eWOM communication is certainly one of the most influential drivers of purchase decisions. However, little knowledge is available on the factors that influence the trustworthiness and credibility of eWOM communication. To address this research gap, the study aimed to assess whether the three independent variables (homophily, authority and interestingness) have a significant positive indirect effect on eWOM credibility, as mediated by source trustworthiness. The context of the study was fast-food retailers. A cross-sectional survey was conducted and the target population included all Generation Y consumers that visited the fast-food market leaders in Gauteng province, the economic hub of South Africa. Lisrel version 8.8 was used to analyse the results obtained from a realised sample of 362 respondents and to compile the structural equation model. The findings of the study support the research hypotheses formulated and offer a theoretical contribution by enhancing knowledge of the relationships between the variables investigated as well as the factors that could influence eWOM credibility. The study also has meaning to fast-food retailers, as the model could be applied to formulate appropriate strategies and influence the online conversations and perceptions of consumers.     

Treatment patterns and healthcare costs among newly-diagnosed patients with chronic myeloid leukemia receiving dasatinib or nilotinib as first-line therapy in the United States

Objective: To compare treatment patterns and economic outcomes of dasatinib and nilotinib as 1st-line therapies for chronic myeloid leukemia (CML).

Methods: Adult CML patients initiated on first-line dasatinib or nilotinib in 2010–2014 were identified from two large US administrative claims databases. Treatment patterns, tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) adherence and healthcare resource utilization (HRU) and costs were measured from the 1st-line TKI initiation (index date) to the end of follow-up.

Results: A total of 604 and 418 patients were included in the dasatinib and nilotinib cohorts (mean ages = 50.9 and 52.5 years, 46.4% and 45.7% female), respectively. Among the dasatinib patients, 91% started with 100?mg/day, 3% with <100?mg/day, and 6% with >100?mg/day. Among the nilotinib patients, 76% started with 600?mg/day, 16% with >600?mg/day, and 8% <600?mg/day. The dasatinib cohort had a higher hazard of dose decrease (hazard ratio [HR]?=?1.66; p?=?.002) and of switching to another TKI (HR =1.62; p?=?.019) compared to the nilotinib cohort. The hazard of dose increase (HR =0.76; p?=?.423) and treatment discontinuation (HR =1.10; p?=?.372) were not significantly different between cohorts. There was also no significant difference in TKI adherence levels (mean proportion of days covered [PDC] difference over first 6 months = ?0.0003, p?=?.981; mean PDC difference over first 12 months = ?0.0022, p?=?.880) and HRU (inpatient day incidence rate ratio [IRR]?=?1.03, p?=?.930; emergency room IRR =1.26, p?=?.197; and days with outpatient services IRR = 1.01, p?=?.842). The dasatinib cohort incurred higher healthcare costs by $749 per patient per month (p?=?.044) compared to the nilotinib cohort.

Limitation: Information on CML phase and Sokal score was not available.

Conclusions: Dasatinib was associated with an increased hazard of dose decrease and switching to another TKI and higher healthcare costs, vs nilotinib.     

Food and beverage television advertising exposure and youth consumption,body mass index and adiposity outcomes

This study examines the relationships between exposure to food and beverage product television advertisements and consumption and obesity outcomes among youth. Individual‐level data on fast food and soft drink consumption and body mass index (BMI) for young adolescents from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, kindergarten cohort, (1998–1999) and adiposity measures for children from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2003–2004) were combined with designated market area (DMA) Nielsen media advertising ratings data. To account for unobserved individual‐level and DMA‐level heterogeneity, various fixed‐ and random‐effects models were estimated. The results showed that exposure to soft drink and sugar‐sweetened beverage (SSB) advertisements is economically and statistically significantly associated with higher frequency of soft drink consumption among youth even after controlling for unobserved heterogeneity, with elasticity estimates ranging from 0.4 to 0.5. The association between fast food advertising exposure and fast food consumption disappeared once we controlled for unobservables. Exposure to cereal advertising was significantly associated with young adolescents' BMI percentile ranking, but exposures to fast food and soft drink advertisements were not. The results on adiposity outcomes revealed that children's exposure to cereal advertising was associated with both percent body fatness and percent trunk fatness; fast food advertising was significantly associated with percent trunk fatness and marginally significantly associated with percent body fatness; and exposure to SSB advertising was marginally significantly associated with percent body and trunk fatness. The study results suggest that continued monitoring of advertising is important and policy debates regarding the regulation of youth‐directed marketing are warranted.