The Euro-area Financial System: Structure, Integration, and Policy Initiatives

Four years after the introduction of the euro, this paper providesan overview of the current structure and integration of theeuro-area financial systems and related policy initiatives.We first compare the euro-area financial structure with thoseof the United States and Japan. Using new and comprehensivefinancial account data, we also describe how the euro-area financialstructure has evolved since 1995. We document the progress towardsintegration of the major euro-area financial segments, namelymoney markets, bond markets, equity markets, and banking. Finally,we discuss recent policy initiatives aimed at further improvingEuropean financial integration.     

What can be learned from China’s success?

Since 1978, China has experienced the most rapid economic growth of any country in world history, and the most rapid growth in living standards of any major economy. Following the latest international financial crisis, China outperformed any other major economy – from the second quarter of 2007 to the second quarter of 2014, China’s economy grew by 78% and the USA by 8%. In a single generation, China has gone from a ‘low income economy’ to the verge of achieving ‘high income’ status by World Bank criteria. Achieving this would double the population living in ‘high income’ economies globally. This extremely rapid development is sometimes explained in terms of unique ‘Chinese characteristics’, but research over the last 30 years suggests it is rooted in universal economic processes. While the combination of global forces producing economic growth is unique in China and produces unique ‘Chinese characteristics’, they can operate throughout the world economy. If other developing economies could achieve the scale of China’s economic success, global problems of poverty and its consequences would be solved. China’s policy response to the international financial crisis was far more effective than that of other major economies. This paper examines the chief strategic lessons to be drawn from China’s success.     

Straddling the Divides: Remaking Associational Life in the Informal African City

Actors in fluid African urban environments endeavor to construct effective means to generate collaborative social action, enforce collective responsibility, and deploy effective and legitimate instruments of power. This effort configures an uneasy tension between the adoption of normative discourses of urban management and governance, and the proliferation of more provisional and informal modalities of association. The article treats informalization as a dynamic process related to new challenges faced by urban citizens in their attempts to access opportunities and, at the same time, maintain social coherence. It explores a broad range of tactics and institutions being used to access livelihood opportunities that more often are now external to the quarter, while maintaining some functional sense of local solidarity. Les acteurs intervenant dans l'incertitude des contextes urbains africains s'efforcent d'élaborer des moyens efficaces pour générer des collaborations d'action sociale, faire valoir une responsabilité collective, et déployer des instruments de pouvoir performants et légitimes. Cette entreprise crée un malaise entre les discours normatifs adoptés par l'autorité et l'encadrement urbains, et la prolifération de modalités d'association provisoires et informelles. L'article traite de ‘l'informalisation’ en tant que processus dynamique dans le cadre des nouveaux défis que les citoyens urbains rencontrent dans leurs tentatives d'accéder à des opportunités tout en préservant la cohérence sociale. Il explore un large éventail de tactiques et institutions utilisées pour obtenir des possibilités de subsistance – désormais plus souvent extérieures au quartier – et protéger parallèlement un certain sens fonctionnel de solidarité locale.     

Agricultural institutions, industrialization and growth: The case of New Zealand and Uruguay in 1870–1940

In this paper we apply a model of early industrialization to the case of New Zealand and Uruguay in 1870–1940. We show how differences in agricultural institutions may have produced different development paths in two countries which were similar under many respects. While in New Zealand the active role of the Crown in regulating the land market facilitated access to land, in Uruguay land was seized by a small group of large landowners. Our model shows that land concentration may have negatively influenced industrialization and growth by impeding the formation of a large group of middle-income landowners and, as a consequence, the development of a domestic demand for basic manufactures. We support this view with a comparative analysis of agricultural institutions and industrial development in New Zealand and Uruguay.     

The term structure of cross-sectional dispersion of expectations in a Learning-to-Forecast Experiment

In this paper, we present the results of a Learning-to-Forecast Experiment (LtFE) where we eliciting short- as well as long-run expectations regarding the future price dynamics in markets with positive and negative expectations feedback. Comparing our results on short-run expectations with the LtFE literature, we prove that eliciting long-run expectations has no impact on the price dynamics nor on short-run expectations formation. In particular, we confirm that the Rational Expectation Equilibrium (REE) is a good benchmark only for the markets with negative feedback. Interestingly, our data show that while the term structure of the cross-sectional dispersion of expectations is convex in positive feedback markets, it is concave in negative feedback markets. Differences in the slope of the term structure stem from diverse degrees of uncertainty regarding the evolution of prices in the two feedback systems: (1) in the negative feedback system, the convergence of the price to the REE reflects a tendency for coordination of long-run expectations around the fundamental value; (2) conversely, oscillatory price dynamics observed in the positive feedback system is responsible for the diverging pattern of long-run expectations. Finally, we propose a new measure of heterogeneity of expectations based on the scaling of the dispersion of expectations over the forecasting horizon.

     

Psychosocial Influences on Children's Food Consumption

This exploratory study generated a grounded theory of factors influencing children's diets, particularly those that contribute to suboptimal eating and ultimately child obesity. The study involved 124 children (aged 6–12 years) and 39 of their parents from three separate junior schools (including a lower, middle, and higher socioeconomic school). Research methods included (i) interviews with children and parents and (ii) observations, drawings, and lunchbox audits with children. The findings suggest that children and parents prioritize psychosocial needs over physiological needs during food selection and consumption. This tendency toward psychosocial eating appears to be strongly reinforced by food advertising.