Modelling driver propensity for traffic accidents: a comparison of multiple regression analysis and fuzzy approach

Abstract

This research proposes an assessment and decision support model to use when a driver should be examined about their propensity for traffic accidents, based on an estimation of the driver’s psychological traits. The proposed model was tested on a sample of 305 drivers. Each participant completed four psychological tests: the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS-11), the Aggressive Driving Behaviour Questionnaire (ADBQ), the Manchester Driver Attitude Questionnaire (DAQ) and the Questionnaire for Self-assessment of Driving Ability. In addition, participants completed an extensive demographic and driving survey. Various fuzzy inference systems were tested and each was defined using the well-known Wang-Mendel method for rule-base definition based on empirical data. For this purpose, a programming code was designed and utilized. Based on the obtained results, it was determined which combination of the considered psychological tests provides the best prediction of a driver’s propensity for traffic accidents. The best of the considered fuzzy inference systems might be used as a decision support tool in various situations, such as in recruitment procedures for professional drivers. The validity of the proposed fuzzy approach was confirmed as its implementation provided better results than from statistics, in this case multiple regression analysis.     

How Chinese Agricultural Immigrants Affect Farmers in the Russian Far East

China’s international position as a net creditor nation provides it with foreign exchange that it has invested in Asian and African countries. One example is China's investment in the Russian Far East (RFE). Thousands of Chinese agricultural workers have migrated to the RFE in recent decades. They are often welcomed by Russian farmers who face a labor shortage and by local residents who can buy cheap vegetables from them, but there are others who resent their presence in the region as competitors. Our study is the first empirical study of this relationship. Our results demonstrate economic benefits to the Russian households. There are, however, some negative repercussions of Chinese farmers in the RFE, and the governments of both China and Russia need to manage the situation wisely.     

Survival auctions

Dynamic clock auctions with drop-out information typically yield outcomes closer to equilibrium predictions than do comparable sealed-bid auctions. However, clock auctions require congregating bidders for a fixed time interval, which has limited field applicability and introduces inefficiencies of its own given the time cost of congregating bidders. In this experiment we explore the effects of removing these inefficiencies through survival auctions—a multi-round sealed-bid auction which is theoretically isomorphic to the dynamic clock auction with drop-out information. Kagel’s research was partially supported by National Science Foundation Grants No. 0136925 and 0136928. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. We thank the associate editor, an anonymous referee, seminar participants at Purdue University, especially Tim Cason, participants at International Industrial Organization April 2004 Conference, the ESA June 2003 meetings, and our discussant, Tim Salmon, for valuable comments. Kirill Chernomaz provided valuable research assistance. The usual caveat applies.     

GOVERNANCE OF PRODUCTION CO‐OPERATIVES IN RUSSIAN AGRICULTURE

Many Soviet kolkhozy and sovkhozy were transformed into agricultural production co‐operatives, because the farm workers would have had large transaction costs in any other type of organization. These co‐operatives still hold a strong market position. This study explores the hypothesis that this market strength could be due to low governance costs, obtained through strong manager power. As managers want the co‐operative to survive, they make limited investments in the co‐operative and pay low wages. The members, however, do not consider this to be problematic. They appreciate the community within the village, their private plots of land and the co‐operative's services. Hence the existence of the co‐operatives is not threatened.     

Optimal Monopolist Export Pricing with Dynamic Demand and Learning Curve Effects

This paper addresses incomplete exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) and pricing-to-market (PTM) by proposing an optimal control model of dynamic monopolistic pricing on a foreign market, which accounts for dynamic demand effects (such as diffusion or saturation) and learning curve effects. It is shown how the optimal dynamic export pricing results in partial or full ERPT in the long-term equilibrium. Moreover, transitional price dynamics are illustrated, which may explain dumping, i.e., temporary prices below unit costs, and (asymmetric) short-run overshooting dynamics of the optimal export price level as a reaction to exchange rate changes.     

Do trade policy differences induce sorting? Theory and evidence from Bangladeshi apparel exporters

This paper provides a new heterogeneous firm model for trade where firms differ in their productivity and experience different market demand shocks. The model incorporates the variations in trade policy, trade preferences, and the rules of origin needed to obtain them that are faced by Bangladeshi garment exporters to the US and EU. We estimate firm's productivity using an extension of the Olley Pakes procedure that accounts for the biases arising from both demand shocks and productivity being unobserved. Predictions of the model are then tested non-parametrically and are shown to be supported empirically.     

The impact of university brand identification and eWOM behaviour on students’ psychological well-being: a multi-group analysis among active and passive social media users

ABSTRACT

Encouraging students to share positive online reviews should not be regarded only as a marketing tool. This study aims to examine (i) the relationship between positive online reviews behaviour for university and students’ well-being; and (ii) the impact of eWOM behaviour on students’ psychological well-being among active (those who share and read information) and passive (those who only read information) social media users. An online survey was conducted to examine the interplay of university brand identification, positive eWOM behaviour, and university life satisfaction on students’ psychological well-being. Results found that students who share positive reviews about university on social media tend to have better psychological health. This study also revealed that active social media users benefit more in terms of well-being through sharing positive online reviews about their universities. Implications for theory and practice of social media marketing in the higher education context are discussed.