Foresight analysis of agricultural sector at regional level

The objective of this paper is to carry out a foresight analysis of the agricultural sector in Castilla y León (Spain) for 2020. The methodology used to build the various scenarios is prospective analysis. We first performed a structural analysis in order to identify the key driving forces that characterize the evolution of the sector in this region (agricultural production, demand for agricultural products and institutional framework). We then carried out a morphological analysis that generated a range of “partial scenarios” from which we finally built four “global scenarios”. These last scenarios characterize the possible trends in the variables of change previously identified. Lastly, the common key parameters of each global scenario were quantified by means of the Delphi method. The characterization of scenarios has a double practical interest. First of all, they can explain the cause-effect relationships of the processes of change that affect agriculture in this region of Spain. Secondly, they are a powerful tool to stimulate an in-depth reflection of how the design and implementation of current agricultural policies will affect the already fragile agricultural sector of Castilla y León. This study thus aims to support decision-making processes at regional level.     

Reducing the level of switching costs in mobile communications: The case of Mobile Number Portability

Switching costs are one of the most important economic forces that affect market competition in mobile communications. Both theoretical and empirical studies have shown that switching costs reduce market competition leading to higher prices, lower product and service quality, and lower customer welfare. Given their negative consequences, national regulatory authorities have designed policies aimed at reducing switching costs and fostering competition. One of the most important of these, in the mobile communications industry, is mobile number portability (MNP). The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of MNP on switching costs in mobile phone services. First, a hierarchical Bayes model is proposed to measure switching costs at the customer level and to investigate the impact of MNP on them. Second, this study examines the drivers of MNP adoption by customers using a binary logit specification. The results reveal that this regulatory policy has significantly reduced the cost of switching and that MNP adoption partially depends on customer-related variables.     

James Sullivan. Jeans: A Cultural History of an American Icon

How is it that jeans evolved from durable work clothes intoa global symbol of America? James Sullivan's new work surveysthe history of denim wear, showing how "... a pair of blue jeansembodies two centuries     

Water allocation by social choice rules: The case of sequential rules

This paper considers the problem of allocating shares of irrigation water to different agricultural agents with single-peaked preferences with respect to their own shares. We define two different sequential allocation rules that respect the asymmetry between the agents and maintain the properties of Pareto efficiency and strategy-proofness, and we design a specific algorithm to apply these rules. The results of the empirical application of these rules for the case of an irrigated area located in the Ebro Basin (Spain) show that the designed sequential rules are able to substantially improve the efficiency of the currently applied proportional rule in context of severe scarcity of water and/or high administrative water prices.     

Breaking Bad in Bourbon Country: Does Alcohol Prohibition Encourage Methamphetamine Production?

This article examines the influence of local alcohol prohibition on the prevalence of methamphetamine labs. Using multiple sources of data for counties in Kentucky, we compare various measures of meth manufacturing in wet, moist, and dry counties. Our preferred estimates address the endogeneity of local alcohol policies by exploiting differences in counties' religious compositions between the 1930s, when most local-option votes took place, and recent years. Even controlling for current religious affiliations, religious composition following the end of national Prohibition strongly predicts current alcohol restrictions. We carefully examine the validity of our identifying assumptions, and consider identification under alternative assumptions. Our results suggest that the number of meth lab seizures in Kentucky would decrease by 35% if all counties became wet.     

Surprise and dispersion: informational impact of USDA announcements

We examine the role of information asymmetry on changes in bid‐ask spreads during major United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) announcements. Our analyses, using corn, wheat, and soybean futures, indicate that information asymmetry is significantly higher on USDA announcement days compared to nonannouncement days. We further observe that the increased information asymmetry prior to news announcements is mainly driven by the divergence in private information possessed by market participants. However, once the USDA news is released, not only the dispersion in investors’ private information but also the surprises in news announcements contribute to increased information asymmetry and widening of bid‐ask spreads.