Future skills and current realities: How the psychological (Jungian) type of European business leaders relates to the needs of the future

How ready for the future are our business leaders? This paper addresses this question by drawing on two pieces of research. An international skills audit was carried out to ascertain if the skills needed by future business leaders would be different from the skills needed today; the results from 340 respondents are presented. These are compared with data on the Jungian type of over 8000 senior managers and executives taken from nine different European countries. Type was measured by the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator^® (MBTI^®) instrument. The findings are used to identify challenges for the future. For example, although the audit suggested that skills such as the ability to empower others are likely to become increasingly important, people with the most common type preference amongst European senior managers (ESTJ) may, especially when under stress, have a particular tendency to want to make all the decisions themselves, without any input from others. The ways in which organisational psychologists and HR practitioners can employ psychological type to help leaders meet these challenges are briefly discussed.     

What Drives Housing Markets: Fundamentals or Bubbles?

This study applies the dynamic Gordon growth model which is in the circumstance of rational bubbles to decompose log price-rent ratio into three parts, i.e., rational bubbles, discounted expected future rent growth rates and discounted expected future returns. The latter two terms represent housing fundamentals. The magnitudes of the components of price-rent ratio’s variance are estimated to distinguish the relative impact of the three parts on housing prices. Using time series data from the housing markets in the four largest cities in China (1991:Q1–2011:Q1 for Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen; 1993:Q2–2011:Q1 for Beijing), this paper presents a number of empirical findings: (a) the variance of rational bubbles is much larger than the variance of price-rent ratio, and rational bubbles contribute more fluctuations directly to price-rent ratio than the expected returns or the expected rent growth rates do; (b) the covariance between rational bubbles and expected returns or expected rent growth rates is also large; (c) the positive covariance of rational bubbles and expected returns implies that high expected returns coexist with bubbles, which differs from previous findings that lower expected returns drive asset prices; (d) the negative covariance of rational bubbles and expected rent growth rates indicates that the larger the bubbles are, the lower the expected rent growth rates are; (e) the positive covariance of expected returns and expected rent growth rates reveals under-reaction of the housing markets to rents.     

Investor sentiment and risk appetite of real estate security market

This article proposes a new model to measure the risk appetite in absence of option prices. Without options transaction, traditional measurements cannot be made. This article establishes a Risk Appetite (RA) indicator by way of change measure and simulation, with two density functions, i.e. risk-neutral density and historical density. The RA indicators use the data from the Property Composite Index (PCI) and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSECI). The empirical result shows that investors involved in the real estate security market have lower RA compared to those in the general security market. Particularly, RA indicators for both indices started to fall markedly in early 2008 and even more so after September 2008. The changes in RA suggest that the overall investors’ attitudes nowadays towards China's stock market are never as pessimistic as before.     

Modelling agricultural land use allocation in regional Australia

An analysis of the drivers of agricultural land use is important for policy makers as the issues of climate change and food security become increasingly prominent in the political landscape. This paper analyses the role of prices, total land holdings and climate on land use in Australia. The analysis relates to a unique comprehensive coverage of commodity types at a regional level. An explicit treatment of missing data and the novel use of cluster analysis is employed within a partial adjustment framework for modelling land allocation. The majority of commodity types across regions exhibit significant degrees of slow partial adjustment for land allocation, the frequency of slow adjustment is greatest with crops and livestock and weakest for vegetables. In general, relative own and cross prices, total land holdings and rainfall only have a minor impact on short‐term land allocations, however numerous individual commodity/regional combinations have identified significant short‐run impacts.     

Learning to play Bayesian games

This paper discusses the implications of learning theory for the analysis of games with a move by Nature. One goal is to illuminate the issues that arise when modeling situations where players are learning about the distribution of Nature's move as well as learning about the opponents' strategies. A second goal is to argue that quite restrictive assumptions are necessary to justify the concept of Nash equilibrium without a common prior as a steady state of a learning process.     

Telecommunications and economic development in Singapore

The existing research of aggregate statistical analysis on the relationship between telecommunications and economic development is largely organized around the hypothesis that telephone growth fosters economic development. Although considerable evidence supports that hypothesis, there is also a growing realization that the growth of telecommunications, in turn, requires a sound economy. The existing research, however, ignores the reciprocal relationship between these two variables. Employing Singapore data, this article formulates a simultaneous equation model to assess the reciprocal relationship between telecommunications and economic development. These data support the reciprocal relationship hypothesis. Policy implications of the findings are also discussed.     

Financial reporting in hyperinflationary economies and the value relevance of accounting amounts: hard evidence from Zimbabwe

We examine the value relevance of inflation-adjusted (IA) and historical cost (HC) amounts in a hyperinflationary economy. Using a unique dataset drawn from annual reports of firms listed on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange from 2000 to 2005, we find that both sets of amounts are value relevant but HC amounts are superior to IA amounts. We also show that inflation gains and losses provide incremental information content beyond that provided by the HC amounts and that the power of this incremental content model is equivalent to that of the HC model but superior to that of the IA model. Further analyses indicate that, in periods of relatively low inflation, HC amounts are more value relevant, while in periods of relatively high inflation, the two sets of amounts are equally value relevant. Finally, we show that HC amounts have a greater ability to predict future cash flows than IA amounts, which suggests that the superiority of their value relevance stems from this.     

The Drivers of Climate Change Innovations: Evidence from the Australian Wine Industry

This study examined the drivers of climate change innovations and the effects of these innovations on firm outcomes in a sample of 203 firms in the South Australian wine cluster. The results of structural equation modeling analysis suggest that absorptive capacity has a direct effect on climate change innovations, and stimulates knowledge exchanges (KEs) between firms in the cluster. KEs between firms in the cluster in turn directly affect the climate change innovations. The findings suggest a perhaps counterintuitive interrelationship between firm- and cluster-level impacts, in which KEs between firms in the cluster play a partial mediating role in the innovation process. The study further finds that climate change innovations are related to firm performance (FP) and reductions in greenhouse gases (GHGs): mitigative innovations lead to greater GHG reductions while adaptive innovations impact on FP. Contributions of the findings are discussed, as are future research directions.     

Visioning 2035: The future of the higher education sector in the UK

The concept of ‘university’ has been around for centuries and yet the majority of British Universities have yet to reach their 50th birthday. The higher education sector has been through extensive change over a relatively short period of time and this is likely to continue in the future. This paper presents the results of a futures study focussed on the Higher Education sector in the UK in 10 and 25 years time. Following an extensive, broad ranging literature review covering business, education, futures, and socio-political texts and studies, a series of scenarios were developed for the future of the sector as a whole. This study differs from other studies in its field as it is does not focus on individual institutions, but rather at the environmental factors that are going to impact on the sector, setting out a range of scenarios within which institutions will need to shape their individual futures. Five scenarios are presented in this paper with their underlying driving factors, and their implications for the academic workforce being employed in the sector.     

Postgraduate research students: You are the future of the Academy

This paper explores the changing role of the university developed and changed over time, and how this is likely to change further in the next 25 years. By drawing on scenarios for the future of the HE sector in the UK in 2035, the article argues that postgraduate research students will be the key factor that sustains the future of the Academy as universities focus more and more attention on the teaching of ever increasing numbers of undergraduate students. The paper highlights the danger of a divide occurring between the idea of the university and the notion of the Academy in the future, and the essential role that research students will play in ensuring this divide remains bridged. The article argues that it is imperative for universities to expand their postgraduate research degree provision if the Academy is to continue in the future as the foundation to knowledge creation.