An Exploratory Study on Nonlinear Causality Among the MILA Markets

According to conventional portfolio theory, an increase in the interconnectedness of international financial markets may reduce the potential for constructing diversified portfolios. This article explores the implications of the creation of the Latin American Integrated Market (MILA)¹ over the dependence structure of its members using correlation and cointegration analysis as well as linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests. The creation of MILA aimed to enhance the integration process that Latin American financial markets “naturally” present while still providing diversification opportunities to investors. The results of our empirical analysis suggest that such objective is being achieved. Evidence of a rise in cross-country linear correlations and their linear causal relationship supports the idea of an increasing financial integration process in the region, while the absence of cointegration and the weakening of the nonlinear causal relationship favors the creation of diversified regional portfolios. These findings provide valuable insights for investment portfolio designers, regulators, and supervisors.     

Money,Prices and the Silver Industry during the Price Revolution

The discovery of American silver has been commonly viewed in the literature as the moving force behind the sustained rise of prices experienced by Western Europe from the early 16th to the mid-17th century. However, the mechanical connection between the money supply and the general price level implied by the Quantity Theory oversimplifies the analysis of a period characterized by different trends, some of which cannot be easily explained by the monetarist story: (i) Central Europe silver mining boomed between 1451 and 1540 following a phase of scarcity of money that was especially severe between the end of the 14th century and the beginning of the 15th century; (ii) European prices started to rise before American silver was significantly imported to the Continent; (iii) the rapid expansion of American mining coincided with the decline of the European silver industry (1540–1618); and finally (iv) Mexican and Peruvian bullion production evidenced a downward course during the period 1628–1697, but no alteration in the rising trend of European prices occurred in response. It is argued instead that the classical theory of value and distribution, emphasizing costs of production as determinants of the ‘natural’ value of commodities including precious metals, can accommodate the facts in a more consistent manner than the monetarist view.     

Country Differences in Material Deprivation in Europe

This paper assesses to what extent differences in the characteristics of individuals (micro‐level perspective) and country‐specific factors (macro‐level perspective) can explain country differences with respect to material deprivation levels. Thus, our work aims to simultaneously consider the macro dimension and the predominantly individually‐oriented study field of material deprivation using multilevel techniques. We make use of the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions. Our results show that country‐specific factors seem to be much more relevant than individual effects in explaining country differences in material deprivation. We estimate that the introduction of country‐specific factors reduces the proportion of total variance due to between‐country differences in deprivation by 72.7 percent, while individual‐level variables reduce this proportion by only 9.4 percent. We also show, through interaction variables, that the effect of sociodemographic characteristics can be shaped by institutional and structural factors, especially by the level of GDP.     

Information and Investor Behavior Surrounding Earnings Announcements

The goal of this paper is to analyze the impact of annual earnings announcements on the market through the order flow data in addition to the usual transaction data. In this respect, examining order flow data can potentially reveal valuable information that is not available from transaction data. In fact, the data allow us to test hypotheses about asymmetric information and investor behavior and to test if the behavior varies with investor sophistication. In addition, the paper tries to identify the determinants of the impact on a firm's value using assumptions about investor behavior.     

The impact of electronic commerce on small and midsized spanish companies

Electronic commerce (EC) is not new for some European Union countries, but in others, such as Spain, it is only at the developmental stage. Now that Spain has joined the third phase of the economic and monetary union, Spanish companies' internationalization and the progressive change in the Spanish consumers' buying habits are determining the search for new business strategies. Starting with an analysis of the Spanish business environment, followed by an internal scanning of small and midsized Spanish companies, this paper will analyze the viability of EC as a new business strategy.     

Existence of Sparsely Supported Correlated Equilibria

We show that every N-player K ₁ × ... × K _N game possesses a correlated equilibrium with at least zero entries. In particular, the largest N-player K × ... × K games with unique fully supported correlated equilibrium are two-player games. We thank an anonymous referee for most useful comments. The first author acknowledges financial support from Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology, grant SEJ2004-03619, and in form of a Ramón y Cajal fellowship. The second author acknowledges support by the PASCAL Network of Excellence under EC grant no.506778, as well as from Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology and FEDER, grant BMF2003-03324. Both authors also acknowledge financial support from BBVA grant “Aprender a jugar.”     

Managers and Wage Policies

Do individual top managers matter for wages and wage policies? Are there general differences in “style” among managers with respect to worker compensation? To shed light on these questions, we exploit a large panel dataset from Portugal that allows us to match workers, firms, and managers, and follow the movements of the latter across different firms over time. While accounting for the effect of worker and firm heterogeneity, we estimate the role of top manager fixed effects in determining wages and wage policies. The estimates suggest that (i) top managers have a significant influence on wages and wage policies; (ii) there exists different managerial “styles”; and (iii) managers’ (observable) attributes matter for worker compensation.     

Global and local determinacy in a one-step forward looking New Keynesian model

In this paper we consider a New Keynesian model for optimal monetary policy in a staggered fashion. We provide the relations of a non linear model of general economic equilibrium, implementing a suitable Taylor-type interest rate rule. We characterize the conditions that guarantee local determinacy and explore conditions under which local bifurcations of the target equilibrium may occur. Afterwards, we argue how local determinacy might be associated with global indeterminacy, providing some numerical examples.