Modeling domestic holiday tourism demand in Australia: Problems and solutions

An econometric model is very useful for understanding the underlying relationship between tourism demand and economic variables such as income and travel prices. However, a long time series horizon of data is essential to run an econometric model that is consistent with economic theory. Although time series data on the number of domestic trips and visitor nights in Australia are available since 1978–79, breaks in the time series in different years have made it difficult to estimate a domestic holiday demand model. It is because the data series in different periods are not directly comparable. In this study, a simple data adjustment technique has been used to obtain comparable data series. Among several econometric demand models, a single equation multivariate time series demand model in a double log linear functional form was found to be the most appropriate and practical model to estimate and analyze the demand parameters of domestic holiday travel in Australia. However, the model with variables in level terms was observed having the “spurious regression problem” which has been corrected using the cointegration and error correction mechanisms. The estimated income and price elasticity of domestic holiday travel demand are consistent with economic theory and therefore can be used for forecasting and other purposes.     

Globalisation,indigenous innovation and national strategy: comparing China and India's wireless standardisation

This comparative case study investigates the contrasting approaches to telecommunications standard-setting adopted by two developing countries, China and India, using the 3G standard as a case study. Despite facing comparable opportunities in the form of fast-growing markets, and comparable challenges in terms of meeting consumer demand and fostering industrial development, the two countries adopted sharply different standards strategies, with China investing heavily in its home-grown Time Division Synchronous Code Division Multiple Access standard, and India allowing operators to choose any international standard. In this paper, we trace the antecedents of this divergence to the different policy approaches that the two countries adopted to their respective electronics industries in the early to mid-1990s.     

CHANGES IN CANADIAN FAMILY INCOME AND FAMILY CONSUMPTION INEQUALITY BETWEEN 1978 AND 1992

This paper uses Canadian cross-sectional income and expenditure data to examine changes in the distribution of family income and family consumption during the period 1978 to 1992. Family consumption data are analyzed because in the presence of intertemporal consumption smoothing, the cross-sectional distribution of consumption may characterize the distribution of lifetime wealth. I find that both Canadian family income inequality and Canadian family consumption inequality moved countercyclically. In addition, both Canadian family income inequality and Canadian family consumption inequality trended upward over the period; however, the change in family consumption inequality was much smaller than the change in family income inequality, suggesting that inequality in the distribution of lifetime wealth may have changed much less than is suggested by changes in the distribution of income.     

Structural stability of P/E ratios of common stocks

Earlier studies have reported that the average price/earning ratios (P/E ratios) of groups of firms tend to maintain over time their ranks within their industry classes. This study looks at the rank stability of P/E ratios of individual stocks, without regard to their industry labels. Based on a sample of 429 stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange, and covering the period 1960–1976, this study concludes that individual stocks exhibit significant stability in their P/E ratio ranks, more strongly so over shorter periods of time. This tendency has implications in investment management.     

On the Use of Intra-Industry Information to Improve Earnings Forecasts

We investigate whether earnings forecasts are improved by earlier earnings disclosures by firms in the same industry. We find improvements for time series forecasts, but not for analysts' forecasts. Considering prior earnings announcements reduces correlations between forecast errors and security price reactions to earnings announcements, even when incorporating these announcements improves forecast accuracy. Our explanation for this anomaly, which is supported by additional analysis, is that intra-industry information facilitates predicting transitory, rather than permanent, earnings components. The question of whether information transfers improve earnings forecasts provides the context for the analysis, but the primary contribution is the documentation of intra-industry information transfers in a setting other than capital markets.     

Do trade policy differences induce sorting? Theory and evidence from Bangladeshi apparel exporters

This paper provides a new heterogeneous firm model for trade where firms differ in their productivity and experience different market demand shocks. The model incorporates the variations in trade policy, trade preferences, and the rules of origin needed to obtain them that are faced by Bangladeshi garment exporters to the US and EU. We estimate firm's productivity using an extension of the Olley Pakes procedure that accounts for the biases arising from both demand shocks and productivity being unobserved. Predictions of the model are then tested non-parametrically and are shown to be supported empirically.     

A meta-analysis of the impact of price presentation on perceived savings

Pricing is one of the most crucial determinants of sales. Besides the actual price, how the price offering is presented to consumers also affects consumer evaluation of the product offering. Many studies focus on “price framing,” i.e., how the offer is communicated to the consumer —is the offered price given along with a reference price, is the reference price plausible, is a price deal communicated in dollar or percentage terms. Other studies focus on “situational effects,” e.g., is the evaluation for a national brand or a private brand, is it within a discount store or a specialty store. In this article, a meta-analysis of 20 published articles in marketing examines the effects of price frames and situations on perceived savings. The results reveal many features that significantly influence perceived savings. For instance, while both the percent of deal and the amount of deal positively influence perceived deal savings, deal percent has more impact. Further, the presence of a regular price as an external reference price enhances the offer value of large plausible deal and implausible deals, but not of small plausible deals. Thus, high value deals should announce the regular price, but not low value deals. Overall, the results have several useful insights for designing promotions.     

LOBBYING COMPETITION OVER TRADE POLICY*

Competition between opposing lobbies is an important factor in the endogenous determination of trade policy. This article investigates the consequences of lobbying competition between upstream and downstream producers. The theoretical structure underlying the empirical analysis is the well‐known Grossman–Helpman model of trade policy determination, modified to account for the cross‐sectoral use of inputs (itself a quantitatively significant phenomenon, with around 50% of manufacturing output being used by other sectors rather than in final consumption). Our empirical results validate the theoretical predictions. Importantly, accounting for lobbying competition also alters substantially estimates of the “welfare‐mindedness” of governments in setting trade policy.     

Debt maturity structure and the 1997 Asian financial crisis

The paper investigates the effects of firm-specific and country-specific characteristics, and the 1997 Asian financial crisis on the debt maturity structure of firms in the Asia Pacific region. The results indicate that firms in this region have a target optimal debt maturity structure, and the maturity structure decision of a firm is driven by both its own characteristics and the economic environment. They also reveal that the crisis had significant effect on firm's debt maturity structure and their determinants.