Structural break threshold VARs for predicting US recessions using the spread

This paper proposes a model to predict recessions that accounts for non‐linearity and a structural break when the spread between long‐ and short‐term interest rates is the leading indicator. Estimation and model selection procedures allow us to estimate and identify time‐varying non‐linearity in a VAR. The structural break threshold VAR (SBTVAR) predicts better the timing of recessions than models with constant threshold or with only a break. Using real‐time data, the SBTVAR with spread as leading indicator is able to anticipate correctly the timing of the 2001 recession. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Los efectos de la inestabilidad laboral en el trabajador y la dependencia del empleo

La globalización y el avance de la competencia internacional van acompañados de unos regímenes de contratación más flexibles y un aumento de la inestabilidad del empleo. Los autores estudian los efectos de la inseguridad laboral que sienten los trabajadores en sus propias actitudes e intenciones en el trabajo. Tras pasar revista a las investigaciones realizadas acerca de la teoría del estrés y las consecuencias de la inestabilidad laboral, ponen a prueba dos hipótesis en 942 trabajadores españoles. La primera es que la inestabilidad disminuye la satisfacción con el trabajo y la entrega a la empresa, a la vez que alienta la intención de abandonar ésta. La segunda es que la sensación de inseguridad, la necesidad económica y la «empleabilidad>> están interrelacionadas e influyen en la actitud del trabajador.     

From Medics to Managers: The Ascent of the Entrepreneur

Where one stands to engage with the world is not as some New Age Psychologists continue to argue, completely free and self-determined. Rather, it is formed largely beyond one’s control and is fraught with both dangers and opportunities. This pre-determined point of view is referred to as the Assumptive World (Parkes, 1975). This is defined as a “strongly held set of assumptions about the world and the self that is confidently maintained and used as a means of recognizing, planning and acting…Assumptions such as these are learned and confirmed by the experience of many years” (Parkes, 1975, p. 132). There are, further, levels and intensities of assumptions, as refined by Janoff-Bulman, R. (1992). These assumptions form the centre point of our world and our consciousness. They are so much a part of us that we tend not to challenge them. Though unchallenged, these assumptions nevertheless drive our behaviors, set our expectations, and operationalize our moral views.     

Endogenous capital utilization in a neoclassical growth model

This paper introduces a variable rate of capital utilization and depreciation into a modified Ramsey-type neoclassical growth model via the well-known concept of pure user cost. The optimal utilization rate is found to be determined by the opportunity cost of holding capital or the net real interest rate. As a consequence, this rate may vary in the short run, so total services of capital become a control rather than a state variable. Furthermore, the introduction of a variable utilization rate yields a slower rate of convergence toward the steady state, inducing more persistence in the transitional dynamics. To illustrate how the endogenous choice of utilization acts on the system, some simulations are carried out, including the transition period when there is a temporary fall in the exogenous real interest rate.     

The Effect of Earnings Management on the Asymmetric Timeliness of Earnings

Abstract:   Is earnings management affecting (driving) the measures of earnings conservatism? Ball et al. (2000) point out that the asymmetry in the recognition of good and bad news in earnings (faster recognition of bad news: earnings conservatism) is more pronounced in common‐law than in code‐law based accounting regimes. However, comparative studies on earnings conservatism in Europe have failed to identify significant differences between common‐law and code‐law based countries. We argue that in code‐law based countries managers have incentives to reduce earnings consistently. This enhances the association between earnings and returns in bad news periods. We find that after controlling for discretionary accruals, the differential earnings response to bad news in Germany and France decreases significantly.     

The Economic Determinants of Conditional Conservatism

Abstract:  We study the economic determinants of conditional conservatism. Consistent with prior literature, we find that contracting induces only conditional conservatism and litigation induces both conditional and unconditional conservatism. We extend prior evidence by Qiang (2007) by showing that taxation and regulation induce not only unconditional conservatism, but conditional conservatism as well. We show that in certain scenarios taxation and regulation create incentives to shift income from periods with high taxation pressure and high public scrutiny to periods with lower taxation pressure and lower public scrutiny. These income shifting strategies are implemented by recognising current economic losses that, given managerial incentives to report aggressively, would not have been recognized otherwise, or by delaying the recognition of current economic gains that would have been recognized had circumstances been different.     

A characterization of peanut consumption in four countries: results from focus groups and their implications for peanut allergy prevalence

Rates of peanut allergy in the Western world have increased over the last 30 years, although it is unclear why. While eating behaviours are likely to be connected to allergy prevalence, the precise relevant factors are uncertain. This study aimed to investigate dietary differences and changes in dietary habits in peanut consumption (in apparent and hidden forms) in four different countries (Bulgaria, Poland, Spain, UK), specifically chosen because of their different ‘peanut experiences’. Focus groups revealed a common perception that dietary habits have become less healthy, with more consumption of processed foods and an increase in snacking. In addition, ethnic cuisine was perceived to have had an important impact on European eating habits, while participants identified an increase in consumption of more ‘exotic’ forms of peanuts and their products. These findings point to an increase in exposure to peanuts, particularly in hidden forms, that superficially parallels increased prevalence rates. However, it was also clear that participants lacked knowledge about the composition of food and non‐food products. The dietary trends identified here thus warrant further quantitative investigation, particularly in the context of differential national patterns of allergy prevalence – data on which is currently being gathered within the EC‐funded EuroPrevall project.     

Ethics in Strategic Thinking: Business Processes and the Global Market Collapse

The authors discussed the reasons for the recent economic collapse as caused by the lack of large businesses and global corporations losing touch with the people they serve. Losing touch has caused a distancing of understanding of the customers as people by these businesses and corporations. An antidote to this is that decisions that have to be made in global businesses as well as domestic organizations reflect some level of empathy. The objective is to highlight the fact that these businesses are corporate citizens and in themselves must be aware of the culture in which they conduct themselves. The authors discuss how empathic decision-making can become part of the corporate fabric without losing any sense of appropriate business judgment. A process is defined to enable the empathic process. Finally, a straw man is set up to fund/enable the process while creating a positive and profitable business environment.     

Constrained mixture distributions

The problem of estimating the weights associated with mixture distributions subject to several constraints, such as the percentile and/or moment constraints, is analyzed using the general theory of polyhedral convex cones and systems of inequalities. We address three problems associated with constrained mixture distributions: (a) Compatibility: a set of inequalities is obtained to check whether or not any given set of constraints lead to a feasible solution for the weights, (b) Feasible solutions: a general expression for building feasible solutions for the weights associated with the given constraints is obtained, and (c) Equivalence: the set of all feasible weights is obtained. In addition, the problem is shown to lead to a new mixture distribution, without extra constraints. This new mixture distribution can then be easily used for the statistical analysis (e.g. estimation and hypotheses testing) instead of the original mixture distribution with extra constraints. The proposed methods are illustrated by numerical examples.