Political system and economic efficiency: The east European context

Sections 1 and 2 reexamine the proposition about democratization of socialism as a factor of economic efficiency—in the light of the challenge contained in the article by Stanislaw Gomutka, “Economic Factors in the Democratization of Socialism and the Socialization of Capitalism” (J. Comp. Econ., Dec. 1977, 1, 4:389–406). The author takes issue with Gomulka's conclusions, which view democracy as of little relevance for economic efficiency under socialism. Dissident views on the link between democracy and efficiency are discussed. Section 3 goes beyond this controversy in an attempt to analyze the prospects and efficiency aspects of a limited change within the existing Soviet-type political system (“Kadarism”).     

Consumption,wealth and business cycles in Germany

This paper studies the long-run relationship between consumption, asset wealth and income—the consumption–wealth ratio—based on German data from 1980 to 2003. We find that departures from this long-run relationship mainly predict adjustments in income. The German consumption–wealth ratio also contains considerable forecasting power for a range of business cycle indicators, including the unemployment rate. This finding is in contrast to earlier studies for some of the Anglo-Saxon economies that have shown that the consumption–wealth ratio reverts to its long-run mean mainly through subsequent adjustments in asset prices. While the German consumption wealth ratio contains little information about future changes in German asset prices, we report that the U.S. consumption–wealth ratio has considerable forecasting power for the German stock market. One explanation of these findings is that in Germany—due to structural differences in the financial and pension systems—the share of publicly traded equity in aggregate household wealth is much smaller than in the Anglo-Saxon countries. We discuss the implications of our results for the measurement of a potential wealth effect on consumption. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not reflect the position of the Deutsche Bundesbank. We gratefully acknowledge comments and suggestions from an anonymous referee as well as from Heinz Herrmann, Helmut Lütkepohl, the editor, Baldev Raj, Burkhard Raunig, Monika Schnitzer, Harald Uhlig and Christian Upper. We also benefitted from comments by seminar participants at the ECB, the Deutsche Bundesbank, the CESifo Macro, Money and International Finance Area Conference 2005, the EEA 2005 annual congress and at the 2005 IAEA Meetings. Last but not least, we would like to thank Mark Weth for very useful information concerning the construction of the financial wealth data. Hoffmann’s work on this paper is also part of the project The International Allocation of Risk funded by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft in the framework of SFB 475. Responsibility for any remaining errors and shortcomings is entirely our own.     

Counteracting Unemployment in Crises: Non‐Linear Effects of Short‐Time Work Policy*

Short‐time work (STW) is a labor‐market policy that subsidizes working‐time reductions among firms in financial difficulty to prevent lay‐offs. Many OECD countries have used this policy in the Great Recession. In this paper, we show that the effects of STW are strongly time‐dependent and non‐linear over the business cycle. Discretionary STW policy might save up to 0.87 jobs per short‐time worker in deep economic crises. In expansions, the effects are smaller and might turn negative. We disentangle discretionary STW from automatic stabilization in German data using smooth‐transition vector autoregressions.     

Tourism and environmental change in Barbados: gathering citizen perspectives with volunteered geographic information (VGI)

New map-based online tools have the potential to facilitate citizen participation in discussing the impacts of tourism. This research investigates the use of Geospatial Web 2.0 (Geoweb) tools to gather volunteered geographic information (VGI) on tourism-related environmental change from citizens of Barbados. We hosted participatory mapping workshops where groups of Barbadians directly contributed content to a series of online maps. These maps were made with the free Google My Map tool, allowing users to interact with detailed satellite imagery of Barbados. Qualitative observations were added and geo-referenced to these maps identifying several types of environmental change concerns, both those generated by tourism, and those with implications for tourism development. We analysed how participants used Google My Maps, identifying concerns of accuracy, data completeness and digital/computer literacy amongst users that could affect further use of this tool. Overall, the Geoweb approach provided participants with a unique perspective on environmental change that facilitated deeper discussion of issues and produced a publicly available, spatially referenced record of citizen concerns. Further research needs are demonstrated, including user interface design, accuracy and uncertainty, and how to manage varying levels of digital literacy.     

Collecting Event Histories with TrueTales:Techniques to Improve Autobiographical Recall Problems in Standardized Interviews

This article deals with the challenges autobiographical recall processes present to validity of events and their dates in the collection of life histories in standardized interviews. Effective interviewing techniques should support the idiosyncratic cognitive structure and the reconstructive memory processes of autobiographical memory by allowing to flexibly explore the interconnections between memories. We describe the techniques and strategies of interviewing and data recording used in the German Life History Study, namely modularization, forward recall and single case data edition. We introduce TrueTales, a CATI- Program designed to support memory and communication in the interview, and results of its experimental evaluation. TrueTales personalizes instructions, questions and probes and permits controlled flexibility in dealing with individual biographies and recall strategies. Working with a calendar-based time-line, it yields more complete, consistent and valid event histories. Finally, we discuss implications for standardized interviewing practices and the concept of standardization.     

EXPLORING PROCESSES FOR CUSTOMER VALUE INSIGHTS,SUPPLY CHAIN LEARNING AND INNOVATION: AN INTERNATIONAL STUDY

This paper reports results from a study designed to assess the extent to which firms across industries and several countries lay the groundwork for and use customer value insight, supply chain learning, and innovation processes. The cross‐sectional study serves as an exploration of the theoretical relationships among these activities and their impact on perceptions of organizational performance. Through an international survey study drawing on samples from the U.S., Sweden and Denmark, the authors find support for the notions that supply chain learning and innovation processes are driven by processes aimed at studying changes in customer value and contribute to perceptions of superior organizational performance. These findings have significant implications for logistics and supply chain management.     

Children's Understanding of TV Advertising: Effects of Age, Gender, and Parental Influence

Parents, consumer organizations, and policy makers are generally concerned about effects of TV advertising directed towards children. These effects might be mediated by children's understanding of TV advertising, that is their ability to distinguish between TV programmes and commercials and their comprehension of advertising intent. In this paper, we investigate children's understanding of TV advertising, using verbal and non-verbal measurements. The sample consists of 153 Dutch children, ranging from 5 to 8 years old, and their parents. The results based on non-verbal measures suggest that most children are able to distinguish commercials from programmes and that they have some insight into advertising intent. The results based on verbal measures are not as conclusive; the percentage of children who show understanding of TV advertising is then substantially lower. Effects of age, gender, and parental influence are assessed using MURALS, a regression analysis technique for categorical and continuous variables, and CHAID, a technique for identifying homogeneous segments on the basis of the relationship between categorical dependent and explanatory variables. The age of a child turns out to have a positive effect. The effects of gender and parent- child interaction are rather small, both for verbal and for non-verbal measures of understanding of TV advertising. A high level of parental control of TV viewing may result in lower understanding of TV advertising. Implications for consumer policy and directions for future research are discussed.