On the distribution of government bond returns: evidence from the EMU

This paper assesses the statistical distribution of daily EMU bond returns for the period 1999–2012. The normality assumption is tested and clearly rejected for all European countries and maturities. Although skewness plays a minor role in this departure from normality, it is mainly due to the excess kurtosis of bond returns. Therefore, we test the Student’s t, skewed Student’s t, and stable distribution that exhibit this feature. The financial crisis leads to a structural break in the time series. We account for this and retest the alternative distributions. A value-at-risk application underlines the importance of our findings for investors. In sum, excess kurtosis in bond returns is essential for risk management, and the stable distribution captures this feature best.     

Economic Implications of Further Harmonisation of Electronic Communications Regulation in the EU

There are some aspects of the European RFEC and its implementation today that could benefit from increased harmonisation; there are others in which substantial accommodation to local, national or regional circumstances and preferences is desirable or required.     

Regulations for the Eighth International Congress of Actuaries

Abstract

The present paper proposes and investigates a procedure for numerical evaluation of the transition probabilities for a time-inhomogeneous Markov process when the intensities are known (estimated). The procedure is based on Taylor-expansion of the transition probabilities linked with the Chapman-Kolmogorov equations.     

The effect of capital requirement regulation on the transmission of monetary policy: evidence from Austria

This paper analyzes the role of banks’ regulatory capitalization in the transmission of monetary policy. We use a confidential dataset for Austrian banks spanning from the first quarter of 1997 to the fourth quarter of 2003. We find evidence that Austrian banks react in an asymmetric way to monetary policy depending on their regulatory excess capitalization, i.e. low capitalized banks react more restrictively to a monetary tightening than their highly capitalized peers.

Risk and risk management of spillover effects: Evidence from the literature

In this article, we provide a comprehensive review of the existing theoretical and empirical literature regarding spillover effects (effects of a crisis event in an announcing firm on other firms). In particular, we focus on the mechanism behind spillover effects and investigate factors that drive spillover effects. The results of our literature analysis show that spillover effects are most often significantly negative, that is, lead to losses in nonannouncing firms and depend on certain events and firm characteristics. On this basis, we derive implications for the risk management of spillover effects. Taking previous work on certain individual risk‐management measures into account, we are the first to provide a holistic spillover risk‐management process.     

Interest rates,distribution and capital accumulation – A post-Kaleckian perspective on the US and Germany

We analyse the effects of interest rate variations on the rates of capacity utilisation, capital accumulation and profit in a simple post-Kaleckian distribution and growth model. This model gives rise to different potential accumulation regimes depending on the values of the parameters in the investment, saving and distribution function. Estimating these core behavioural equations for the US and Germany in the period 1960–2007, we find significant and robust effects of interest payments with the expected sign in each of the equations. Our estimation results imply, both for the US and for Germany, that the effects of changes in the real long-term rate of interest on the equilibrium rates of capacity utilisation, capital accumulation and profits, are characterised by the ‘normal regime’: rising long-term real rates of interest cause falling rates of capacity utilisation, capital accumulation and profits, as well as redistribution at the expense of labour income and hence an increasing profit share in both countries.