Experimental Methods for the General Economist: Five Lessons from the Lab

I review five primary results from experimental economics that impact the economics profession as a whole. These results regard the relative (un)importance of subject sophistication in laboratory markets, the importance of gender on economic outcomes, the propensity for humans to behave in less than fully rational ways, the importance of trading institutions on economic performance, and the behavioral relevance of economic theory. I find that economics as a profession has benefited from the use of experimental methods by fostering a dialogue between theorists and empiricists, better informing policy and improving data collection techniques.     

ETF Competition and Market Quality

This paper examines competition between exchange traded funds (ETFs) that hold nearly identical portfolios of securities. We provide evidence that incumbent‐fund liquidity is negatively affected when a new ETF is added to an asset class. The degradation in liquidity is even more severe whenever both funds follow the same benchmark. We also document a decline in primary‐market activity for the incumbent ETFs after the arrival of new competitors. Furthermore, increasing the number of funds in an asset class does not put downward pressure on fund management fees. Thus, the deterioration in market quality may not be offset by decreasing costs of fund ownership.     

Conspiracies and Secret Discounts in Laboratory Markets

This paper uses laboratory methods to evaluate whether price-fixing conspiracies break down in the presence of opportunities to offer secret discounts. The primary treatment difference is whether or not buyer-specific discounts from the posted list price are permitted. In standard posted-offer markets, conspiring sellers almost uniformly find and maintain near-monopoly prices. But when the possibility of offering secret discounts is introd uced, sellers find sustaining collusive agreements much more difficult, and transactions prices tend to fall toward competitive levels. Secret discounts yield competitive outcomes less consistently, however, when sellers are provided ex post information about sales quantities     

Are financial spreads useful indicators of future inflation and output growth in EU countries?

This paper seeks to address the policy issue of the usefulness of financial spreads as indicators of future inflation and output growth in the countries of the European Union, placing a particular focus on out-of-sample forecasting performance. Such analysis is of considerable relevance to monetary authorities, given the breakdown of the money/income relation in a number of countries and following increased emphasis of domestic monetary policy on control of inflation following the broadening of the ERM bands. The results confirm that for some countries, financial spread variables do contain some information about future output growth and inflation, with the yield curve and the reverse yield gap performing best. However, the relatively poor out-of-sample forecasting performance and/or parameter instability suggests that the need for caution in using spread variables for forecasting in EU countries. Only a small number of spreads contain information, and improve forecasting in a manner which is stable over time. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Accountants’ cognitive styles and ethical reasoning: A comparison across 15 years

Recent attention to accountants’ ethics in the news, in professional practice, and by academia leads to questions about the ethical and cognitive characterization of students selecting accounting careers. We employ the Myers/Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) for assessing cognitive styles, and the Defining Issues Test (DIT) for assessing ethical reasoning to study differences between two groups of accounting graduates and new hires entering the accounting profession across a period of 15 years. We show that the dominant cognitive make-up of accountants has not changed significantly over the study period, which is consistent with prior research. Also, we hypothesize and provide evidence that this dominant style is associated with lower levels of ethical reasoning (as measured by the DIT) than other cognitive styles. The ethical reasoning scores are lower for the 2005 sample than for the 1990 sample. This result may be attributable to age, gender, grade point average, or political orientation; however, incomplete data in our sample does not allow us to make definitive conclusions regarding these control variables. We discuss the implications of these findings for curriculum development and professional practice.     

Early Birds versus Just-in-Timers: The effect of procrastination on academic performance of accounting students

This study investigates the effect of procrastination on academic performance. Prior research has often relied upon self-reported measures of procrastination, which are only weakly correlated with actual procrastination. We use the start and submission of a set of online homework problems as two objective, direct measures of student procrastination and the grade on the assignments as a measure of performance. In our study, there were a number of potential benefits to submitting online assignments ‘just-in-time’. Thus, there was a direct benefit to procrastination, which students had to weigh against potential drawbacks. With a sample size larger than those previously reported in the literature, we find that for both procrastination measures, task procrastination is associated with lower task performance. To ensure that our results are not just an association between performance and student quality, we test for the association between task procrastination and task performance, while controlling for student quality. We find that even after controlling for student quality, task procrastination is associated with lower task performance.     

Staking Cosmopolitan Claims: How Firms and NGOs Talk About Supply Chain Responsibility

Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) increasingly hold firms responsible for harm caused in their supply chains. In this paper, we explore how firms and NGOs talk about cosmopolitan claims regarding supply chain responsibility (SCR). We investigate the language used by Apple and a group of Chinese NGOs as well as Adidas and the international NGO Greenpeace about the firms’ environmental responsibilities in their supply chains. We apply electronic text analytic methods to firm and NGO reports totaling over 155,000 words. We identify different conceptualizations of cosmopolitanism in this discourse: a legalistic approach to cosmopolitanism for Apple and a group of Chinese NGOs and a moralistic approach for Adidas and Greenpeace. We argue that these differences connect to the roles that the firms are expected and perhaps willing to take in SCR: legalistic discourse connects to a governmental function of rule development and enforcement; in contrast, moralistic discourse connects to a citizenship function that focuses on doing good to the global community. We discuss implications for companies’ non-market strategies and future research.     

What moves housing markets: A variance decomposition of the rent–price ratio

We apply the dynamic Gordon growth model to the housing market in 23 US metropolitan areas, the four Census regions, and the nation from 1975 to 2007. The model allows the rent–price ratio at each date to be split into the expected present discounted values of rent growth, real interest rates, and a housing premium over real rates. We show that housing premia are variable and forecastable and account for a significant fraction of rent–price ratio volatility at the national and local levels, and that covariances among the three components damp fluctuations in rent–price ratios. Thus, explanations of house-price dynamics that focus only on interest rate movements and ignore these covariances can be misleading. These results are similar to those found for stocks and bonds.     

Bias and Error in Mine Project Capital Cost Estimation

Previous analyses of small samples of mining projects have found that feasibility studies tend to underestimate the as-built capital costs of the project. Our review of 63 international mining and smelting projects confirms that as-built capital costs are, on average, 14% higher than as estimated in the bankable feasibility study. There is little attenuation over time of this bias in capital cost estimation, appearing to reflect an absence of learning on the part of the project sponsor or the consulting engineering firm. We argue that this persistence of bias is instead intentional and rational, driven by a scarcity of project financing and the need by project sponsors to inflate the project economics in a bid to secure financing. We find some empirical support for our contention. A second phase of the analysis examines estimation error. Roughly half of all projects' as-built capital costs fall outside of the expected ± 15% of the feasibility study capital cost estimate, even after allowing for intentional estimation bias. Cost overruns of 100% or more happen in roughly 1 out of 13 projects. Smaller projects have less estimation accuracy than large projects. Finally, our analysis of the cost overrun data reveals that a shifted lognormal probability distribution should be used when modeling mining project capital costs in a Monte Carlo analysis.