Misperceiving the value of information in predicting the performance of others

Economic models typically allow for “free disposal” or “reversibility” of information, which implies non-negative value. Building on previous research on the “curse of knowledge” we explore situations where this might not be so. In three experiments, we document situations in which participants place positive value on information in attempting to predict the performance of uninformed others, even when acquiring that information diminishes their earnings. In the first experiment, a majority of participants choose to hire informed—rather than uninformed—agents, leading to lower earnings. In the second experiment, a significant number of participants pay for information—the solution to a puzzle—that hurts their ability to predict how many others will solve the puzzle. In the third experiment, we find that the effect is reduced with experience and feedback on the actual performance to be predicted. We discuss implications of our results for the role of information and informed decision making in economic situations. Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10683-006-9128-y. JEL Classification C91, D83     

Mood and Ethical Decision Making: Positive Affect and Corporate Philanthropy

Journal of Business Ethics - This study examines the influence of mood (‘affect’) on corporate philanthropic giving. Drawing on group emotions theory and affect-infused decision theory,...     

Experts,firms, consumers or even hard data? Forecasting employment in Germany

In this article, we forecast employment growth for Germany with data for the period from November 2008 to November 2015. Hutter and Weber (2015) introduced an innovative unemployment indicator and evaluated the performance of several leading indicators, including the Ifo Employment Barometer (IEB), to predict unemployment changes. Since the IEB focuses on employment growth instead of unemployment developments, we mirror the study by Hutter and Weber (2015). It turns out that in our case, and in contrast to their article, the IEB outperforms their newly developed indicator. Additionally, consumers’ unemployment expectations and hard data such as new orders exhibit a high forecasting accuracy.     

Discovering India's three levels of luxury consumption: An exploratory research to find a conceptual framework

Luxury marketing research has moved from functional product attributes to a ‘democratized’ view in emerging economies. This seems to be based on the development of interactive and digital communications. Luxury research studies have historically focused on the brand's and marketer's perspectives. Thus, little attention has been given to the consumer's view of what we consider to be the individual drivers, i.e., the ‘inner and outer self’ and how that impacts luxury consumption. This paper presents a framework of luxury and self, using concepts such as interdependent or outer, independent or inner, and a new concept of ‘digital self’. These appear as three levels of luxury consumption, i.e., conspicuous, individual, and interactive. The interdependent self is influenced by the external motives and leads to conspicuous luxury behavior. Individual self is affected by internal motives and thus influences individual luxury consumption. Digital self affects the networks of motive and relationships and thereby impacts interactive luxury consumption and behavior.     

The past,present, and future of brand research

Marketing Letters - This article discusses the past, present, and future of brand research. We begin by reviewing three historical eras of branding development in the past: the information,...     

The Future of Advertising or Whatever We're Going to Call It

In this opinion piece, the author speculates on the future of advertising. Arguing that the challenge of predicting the future lies mainly in the lack of an acceptable definition of the field, the author solves that problem by developing a set of postulates to create boundaries for the theory and practice of the discipline. The postulates of the present discipline are used as the base from which the future might evolve. Three scenarios are proposed for the future of advertising: (1) creeping incrementalism, (2) reversal of buyer/seller roles, and (3) reinvention of the field. The author suggests that those scenarios will develop and play out based on the developmental speed and acceptance of the various technologies identified.     

The variable effects of dynamic capability by firm size: the interaction of innovation and marketing capabilities in competitive industries

Although investments in marketing and innovation capabilities theoretically help firms to compete in dynamic markets and enhance performance, company size has a strong influence on whether this is the case. In a test of a proposed conceptual model, this study of 692 small, medium, and large enterprises found that large firms prospered from building dynamic capabilities under conditions of high industry competitiveness, while investments in innovation and marketing individually diminished small firms’ performance. The effect was mixed for medium-size firms. In small enterprises, however, dynamic capability proved to be crucial in order to withstand competition. Therefore, taking into account these firms’ limited resources, managerial efforts should be focused on the integration of marketing and innovation capabilities, because each capability alone does not have a significant positive impact on performance. In medium-sized enterprises, the support of marketing capability is required to raise profitability under conditions of high industry competitiveness; otherwise, innovation would not lead to actual profits. For large enterprises, industry competitiveness was found to be a less serious threat to performance, and instead is a catalyst to the development of capabilities, suggesting that managers of such firms should focus on building long-term strategic advantages.     

Looking into the black box of boosting: the case of Germany

This article looks into the ‘fine print’ of boosting for economic forecasting. By using German industrial production for the period from 1996 to 2014 and a data set consisting of 175 monthly indicators, we evaluate which indicators get selected by the boosting algorithm over time and four different forecasting horizons. It turns out that a number of hard indicators like turnovers, as well as a small number of survey results, get selected frequently by the algorithm and are therefore important to forecasting the performance of the German economy. However, there are indicators such as money supply that never get chosen by the boosting approach at all.