Assessing financial contagion in the interbank market: Maximum entropy versus observed interbank lending patterns

Interbank markets allow banks to cope with specific liquidity shocks. At the same time, they may represent a channel for contagion as a bank default may spread to other banks through interbank linkages. This paper analyses how contagion propagates within the Italian interbank market using a unique data set including actual bilateral exposures. Based on the availability of information on actual bilateral exposures for all Italian banks, the results obtained by assuming the maximum entropy are compared with those reflecting the observed structure of interbank claims. The comparison indicates that, under certain circumstances, depending on the structure of the interbank linkages, the recovery rates of interbank exposures and banks’ capitalisation, the maximum entropy approach overrates the scope for contagion.     

Inter-industry Distribution of Productivity Gains

In an input–output framework the gains of total factor productivity or the benefits of process innovation can be measured as a reduction in time of the total cost per unit of output, for any industry, when costs and outputs are measured at constant prices. These benefits are distributed to the economic agents (consumers, suppliers, workers, capital owners) through changes in prices, reflecting the structure of the different markets for products and for primary inputs. Theoretical considerations about this process of distribution of the benefits of innovation are complemented with computations related to the evolution of the Spanish economy between 1975 and 1980.     

Determinants of Corporate Governance in the Italian Financial Market

We evaluate the determinants of corporate governance of companies listed at the Italian Stock Exchange. We consider ownership structure, balance sheet data, company performance and some qualitative features as determinants. We evaluate the convergence of Italian companies' governance towards a system with effective governance mechanisms. Our analysis shows definitely that companies with a large shareholder and/or minority blockholders controlling a large stake and companies belonging to a pyramidal group or controlled by a shareholders' coalition are characterized by a poor governance/shareholders' protection standard. Institutional investors play a positive role .     

Investment decisions and the soft budget constraint

This paper investigates the investment behaviour of a large panel of Hungarian firms in the period 1989–99, in order to assess the impact of institutional and regulatory changes on the efficiency of credit allocation. We find that the role of financial factors for investment decisions has changed significantly after the introduction of major financial reforms, and that firms were affected differently depending on their ownership type. Reforms have hardened the budget constraint of private domestic firms, particularly small ones, and reduced informational problems for foreign‐owned firms. State‐owned firms remained subject to a soft budget constraint. In particular, small state firms became more sensitive to financial conditions, whereas large state firms were unaffected and kept operating under a soft budget constraint.     

Price mechanism and endogenous productivity in an open economy stock‐flow consistent model

This paper combines a Stock‐Flow Consistent open economy two‐country model with the Verdoorn‐Kaldor law, which posits a positive relationship between the rate of growth of output and productivity growth. The model shows the role of endogenous productivity as a shock magnifier and underlines the limits of the mechanisms of adjustment that rely exclusively on the “buffer” provided by flexible exchange rates. It also provides arguments in support of fiscal policy both in the context of flexible exchange rates and fixed exchange rates. Finally, it challenges the sustainability of austerity measures aimed to achieve external balance.     

Entrepreneurship persistence with and without personnel: The role of human capital and previous unemployment

By considering entrepreneurs who hire employees (employers) and entrepreneurs without personnel (own-account workers) as related but distinct entrepreneurship groups, this work analyses factors in entrepreneurship survival from a new perspective: we contrast the determinants of employers’ survival with those affecting own-account workers’ survival. Discrete choice models under competing risks frameworks are applied to data drawn from the European Community Household Panel for the EU-15 (EUROSTAT). Our results suggest that survival chances are markedly higher for employers than for own-account workers—especially when non-employment exits are considered. We also observe that high qualifications have positive and statistically significant effects on survival rates of employers, regardless of exit routes, while high qualifications have no significant effect on survival rates of own-account workers. Finally, we find that entering entrepreneurship from unemployment—the target group for entrepreneurship incentives—strongly increases the probability of re-entering unemployment for both entrepreneurship groups. Thus, entrepreneurship and higher education policies should be considered together to develop high quality entrepreneurial businesses.     

The ‘recession-push’ hypothesis reconsidered

The relationship between unemployment and self-employment has been studied extensively. Due to its complex, multifaceted nature, various scholars have found a large array of different results, so that the exact nature of the relation is still not clear. An important element of the relation is captured by the recession-push hypothesis which states that in times of high unemployment individuals are pushed into self-employment for lack of alternative sources of income such as paid employment. We make two contributions to this literature. First, we argue that official unemployment rates may not capture the ??true?? rate of unemployment as it does not include ??hidden?? unemployed who are out of the labour force. Therefore, we propose a new method where the ??recession-push?? effect relates not only to the (official) unemployed but also to the inactive population. Second, we argue that the magnitude of the recession-push effect is non-linear in the business cycle, i.e. the effect is disproportionally stronger when economic circumstances are worse. We provide empirical support for our hypotheses by estimating an econometric model on Spanish data.     

Identity, reputation and social interaction with an application to sequential voting

We analyze binary choices in a random utility model assuming that agent’s preferences are affected by conformism (with respect to the behavior of the society) and coherence (with respect to identity). We show that multiple stationary equilibria may arise and that the outcome looks very different from a society where all the agents take their decisions in isolation. We quantify the fraction of agents that behave coherently. We apply the analysis to sequential voting when voters “like to win”. Compared to the present literature, we enrich the setting assuming that each voter is endowed with an ideology and we consider the interplay between coherence and the desire to vote with the (perceived) majority.