Managing decision-making with certainty of threat

Several factors, such as emotion and uncertainty of the outcome, influence decision-making. We assessed decision-making during a risky event (natural hazard, focusing here on two types of volcanic threats) by manipulating the certainty of lethal threat in an information campaign. We hypothesized that the reduction of uncertainty of lethal threat in an information campaign would improve behavior through more suitable choices by reducing the use of emotional choices. In the scenario that occurred in a familiar place, participants who received information with uncertainty of lethal threat presented more emotional and comfortable choices, such as staying at home, rather than detached ones, such as leaving the area. These were either appropriate (for volcanic ash cloud) or inappropriate (for pyroclastic flow). The certainty hypothesis was partially validated, as certainty influenced the quality of choice in the scenarios that took place at home. Furthermore, participants in the volcanic disaster context presented less suitable decisions compared to those in the neutral context, which was discussed in terms of the presence of emotions, such as fear of volcanic eruption. Our results highlight the importance of controlling the comforting emotional aspect of the home environment in any information communication.     

Viable Ramsey economies

The Ramsey model of economic growth is revisited from the perspective of viability theory. The Ramsey model, augmented with minimal consumption and sustainability criteria, becomes a viability problem. The framework allows for a clear picture of optimal viable, optimal non‐viable, and viable non‐optimal paths. The drastic sacrifices in terms of present consumption required by the implementation of Brundtland sustainability are visualized, the rich countries bearing the major part of the burden. The econometric analysis of viability sets enhances the role of technological progress in ensuring Brundtland sustainability. Preference parameters such as the pure time preference rate are statistically non‐significant.     

Persistence vs. mobility in industrial and technological specialisations: evidence from 11 Euro area countries

This paper examines the evolution of the patterns of specialisation of 11 Euro area countries in the period 1990–2008, by analysing their comparative and technological advantages. We estimate conditional densities and Markov transition probabilities to examine both the external shape of the distribution of technological and comparative advantages and the intra-distribution dynamics. Our results point out that there is, on average, high persistence of the industrial specialisation patterns of the 11 Euro area countries under scrutiny, confirming a lock-in effect, especially in the case of Italy. Our results for technological specialisation reveal high mobility of technological advantages over the same period, especially for Spain.     

Do overseas investments create or replace trade? New insights from a macro-sectoral study on Japan

This paper investigates the relationship between outward foreign direct investment (FDI) and exports and imports from Japan, employing an augmented standard gravity model. Several econometric techniques, including the Gamma Pseudo Maximum Likelihood estimator, are used to rectify possible problems of heteroskedasticity and zero trade flows inherent in the estimation of gravity models of trade. The major finding is that outward FDI is trade enhancing for the Japanese manufacturing industry. However, we find that whether outward FDI creates or replaces trade depends on the industry under scrutiny. Our results indicate that the complementary relationship between FDI and trade is dominant in Japanese manufacturing, especially in the food and beverages, electric machinery, primary metals, and precision machinery sectors. We find also that Japanese overseas investments substitute for imports of chemical products, and for both exports and imports of general machinery.     

“Too Good to be True!”. The Effectiveness of CSR History in Countering Negative Publicity

Corporate crises call for effective communication to shelter or restore a company’s reputation. The use of corporate social responsibility (CSR) claims may provide an effective tool to counter the negative impact of a crisis, but knowledge about its effectiveness is scarce and lacking in studies that consider CSR communication during crises. To help fill this gap, this study investigates whether the length of company’s involvement in CSR matters when it uses CSR claims in its crisis communication as a means to counter negative publicity. The use of CSR claims in crisis communication is more effective for companies with a long CSR history than for those with a short CSR history, and consumer skepticism about claims lies at the heart of this phenomenon.     

碳汇交易机制在西部生态补偿中的借鉴与启示

随着经济快速持续发展,生态环境的瓶颈日益凸显,政府通过财政转移支付及项目专项资金实施补偿,但市场化补偿长期缺位,补偿远远低于生态效益产品的成本.碳汇交易的市场化机制,给西部生态补偿长效机制的确立,提供了新范式.文章从碳汇交易发展前景,结合西部的碳汇存量及生态补偿现状,分析了西部发展碳汇的必要性和可行性,并提出了具体的建议.     

Learning from Greek Philosophers: The Foundations and Structural Conditions of Ethical Training in Business Schools

There is an extensive body of work that has previously examined the teaching of ethics in business schools whereby it is hoped that the values and behaviours of students might be provoked to show positive and enduring change. Rather than dealing with the content issues of particular business ethics courses per se, this article explores the philosophical foundations and the structural conditions for developing ethical training programs in business schools. It is informed by historical analysis, specifically, an examination of Platonic and Aristotelian philosophies that inspires virtue ethics, and together provides four conditions for consideration: respect for law, dialectics, imitation and deliberation. We outline the necessary structural conditions for implementing these requirements as well as suggesting the necessary pedagogical protocol applicable to all courses. It is argued that reference to our two ancient Greek philosophers provide many valuable and insightful lessons for the implementation of ethical training today including choice of theoretical content and the approach towards learning. Further, the enactment of a pedagogical protocol requires a policy of recruiting and managing business school teachers-instructors that takes into account, and consciously encourages, intellectual, relational and spiritual pedagogical qualities.     

Normal backwardation is normal

Traditionally, constant expected return asset pricing models are used to assess the presence of a futures risk premium and the validity of the normal backwardation theory. In the light of recent evidence regarding the presence of time variation in expected futures returns, such an approach may lead to incorrect inferences on the applicability of the Keynesian hypothesis. This article therefore allows for variation through time in expected futures returns and offers some strong evidence in favor of the normal backwardation and contango theories. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 20:803–821, 2000