Evolution of the effects of mineral commodity prices on fiscal fluctuations: empirical evidence from TVP-VAR-SV models for Peru

Review of World Economics - This paper studies the evolution of the effects of fluctuations in mineral commodity prices on fiscal variables, especially those associated with fiscal revenues, in...     

Globalisation,taxation and inequality

Today's tax systems, in which value-added taxes and payroll taxes play a prominent role, are largely creations of the 1950s. We need to invent modern tax systems adapted to the reality of the 21^st century: the growing importance of capital and the rise of inequality. This article reviews some of the challenges involved with increasing the progressivity of tax systems in a globalised world and discusses how these challenges could be overcome. I make the case for new and more ambitious forms of international cooperation and for modern forms of wealth taxation.     

Quantifying Brexit: from ex post to ex ante using structural gravity

Review of World Economics - Exploiting changes in the geography of economic integration in Europe, this paper quantifies the effects of Brexit from ex post to ex ante using structural gravity. By...     

Group threat and voter turnout: Evidence from a refugee placement program

We study the impact of refugee inflows on voter turnout in Sweden in a period when shifting immigration patterns made the previously homogeneous country increasingly heterogeneous. Analyzing individual-level panel data and exploiting a national refugee placement program to obtain plausibly exogenous variation in immigration, we find that refugee inflows significantly raise the probability of voter turnout. Balancing tests on initial turnout as well as placebo tests regressing changes in turnout on future refugee inflows support the causal interpretation of our findings. The results are consistent with group-threat theory, which predicts that increased out-group presence spurs political mobilization among in-group members.     

Julian Simon,the problem of socio-ecological resilience and the “ultimate resource”: a reinterpretation

The Review of Austrian Economics - The article argues that the debate between “the limits to growth” movement and Julian Simon could be reconstructed and reinterpreted in the light of...     

Wikipedia pageviews as investors’ attention indicator for Nasdaq

The attempt to measure investors’ mood to find an early indicator of financial markets has evolved and developed with the advancement of technology over the years. The first attempts were based on surveys, a long and expensive process. Nowadays, big data has made it possible to measure the investor’s mood accurately and almost entirely online. This paper analyzes the explanatory and predictive capacity of Wikipedia pageviews for the Nasdaq index. For this purpose, two econometric models have been developed. In both models, the explanatory variable is the number of Wikipedia visits, and the endogenous variable is Nasdaq index return. As an alternative to this approach, an algorithmic trading system has been developed. It uses Wikipedia visits as investment signals for long and short positions to check the predictability power of this indicator. It is determined that the volume of queries about Nasdaq companies is a statistically significant variable for expressing the evolution of this index. However, it has no predictive capacity. Keeping in mind the capacity of Wikipedia to exemplify Nasdaq trends, further studies should be conducted to determine how to make this indicator profitable.     

Medical emergencies and farm productivity in Côte d'Ivoire

The lack of health insurance for smallholder farmers in most sub-Saharan African countries hurts the families and can also negatively affect agriculture production, exports, and tax revenues. This paper analyzes the linkage between medical emergencies and agriculture exports and the corresponding tax revenues for smallholder farmers in Côte d'Ivoire. It uses two complementary datasets: the 2016 Consultative Group to Assist the Poor (CGAP) smallholder survey and the 2015 Côte d'Ivoire living standard survey. The paper finds that a medical emergency is negatively and significantly associated with a decrease in the likelihood that a smallholder farmer cultivates cocoa of 3.9 percentage points, driving them into poverty and reducing productivity at the lower quantiles. The paper then estimates that medical emergencies can be correlated with the decline in cocoa exports of $853 million and in tax revenues of $125 million, representing 0.2% of the Ivorian gross domestic product (GDP) in 2017.