Análisis del servicio de Urgencias aplicando teoría de líneas de espera

Those responsible for making decisions in hospitals are increasingly aware of the need to efficiently manage hospital systems. An option for analysis is done by queuing models. In this paper is analyzed the service area ER, in a public hospital applying the concepts and relationships of waiting lines. From the model results, it is concluded that in the emergency department does not have the required minimum number of doctors to allow a steady flow of patients. With the model, the minimum required number of doctors is calculated to meet current and future demand for service with the same service time and the same discipline of service. Analytical models, allowing direct understand the relationships between service demand, number of doctors and patient care priority viewed as a queuing system. The work is useful for administrators and managers of hospital systems.     

Distortions,endogenous managerial skills and productivity differences

We develop a span-of-control model where managerial skills are endogenous and the outcome of investments over the life cycle of managers. We calibrate this model to U.S. plant-size data to quantify the effects of distortions that are correlated with the size of production units, and how these effects are amplified by managerial investments. We find a quantitatively important role for managerial investments. Distortions that consist of a tax rate of 20% on the top 50% managers reduce steady-state output by about 14.6% in our benchmark model. When skills are exogenous the reduction is about 9.2%.     

The innovation process as a complex structure with multilevel rules

Increasingly, innovation is conceived in a context of conventions or rules and complexity. However, there is a need for a theoretical basis that describes the innovation process based on complexity. In this essay, we propose a multilevel micro-meso-macro framework that aims to meet this need and further the discussion on complexity. In this framework, the rule is adopted as an analytical concept and used to establish a bridge between the several theories employed. Two gaps are identified in the innovation process: the first is related to the simplicity with which complexity is generally treated, and the second refers to a lack of focus on the rules embedded in the theories used in innovation. The goal of this theoretical essay is to propose a multilevel micro-meso-macro framework, based on the rules and principles of complexity, which can be used to analyze the innovation process. As a result, we propose a new framework in which the innovation rules and the interactions between those rules are detailed and based on principles of complexity.     

Environmental Motivations: The Pathway to Complete Environmental Management

The aim of this research is to ascertain whether a firm’s environmental motivations may help to predict how complete or incomplete its environmental management will be, understanding incomplete management to be that which neglects one or more of the three keys aspects of such management, namely, monitoring, action and results. We specifically posit that while motivations based on the search for legitimation lead to more incomplete styles of environmental management, competitive motivations entail a more complete management. The analyses conducted with a sample of 1,902 plants provide empirical evidence in favour of such reasoning. The contribution this research makes, therefore, is not restricted solely to showing the effect motivations have on the environmental performance of organisations, as it also introduces a new dimension of environmental management—the degree of completeness, which needs to be considered when understanding and evaluating this effect.     

A Spatial Econometric Analysis of Cultural Dimensions,Technology Knowledge and Economic Growth

Using data from 65 countries over the period 1980–2003, this paper investigates the role that cultural dimensions play in the process of technological change, innovation and adoption and consequently on the steady state level of output per worker and its growth, using spatial econometrics techniques to account for spatial dependence between countries. Initial findings indicate that differences across cultural dimensions act as a leveling effect but not as long run growth determinants. In addition, when controlling for physical and human capital accumulation, culture plays a much smaller role in explaining differences in income per capita than initially thought, with little effect on output per worker growth along the transitional dynamics path. Spatial econometric considerations are relevant in explaining differences across rates of growth of per worker output, but not in terms of steady‐state levels of income.     

Fuzzy Negotiation Solutions of n-Person Cooperative Games by Knowledge Engineering in Bargaining

A model for negotiation is developed upon the basis of a previous model called Fuzzy Negotiation Solution by Knowledge Engineering. The new model, called Compensatory Negotiation Solution by Knowledge Engineering and FNSKE are based on the combination of knowledge of experts in negotiation, rather than on classical notions of rationality. The experts in negotiation present four propositions in a non-mathematical way and with a natural language, according to the theory of Knowledge Engineering. In the CNSKE model, knowledge is represented through logic predicates, and the calculations are made using the Compensatory Fuzzy Logic system. CFL is a system whose operators satisfy the axioms of Utility. The CFL operators, especially because of the compensation property, are more adequate than the norm and co-norm’s operators to model human decision-making, according to empirical results. The Good Deal Index in CNSKE is statistically estimated from the GDI in FNSKE. This is a quantitative index, which provides the solution concept. The fuzzy function f(C) represents the likelihood the players of a coalition C to reach an agreement into this coalition. Counterpart Convenience Indexes 1, 2 allow each player to select the best coalition for negotiation. The advantage of CNSKE over FNSKE is that the idempotency of conjunction and disjunction operators give every membership function -obtained from the predicates- the possibility to be interpreted by itself. Hence, the truth-values of the CNSKE membership functions can be semantically interpreted. In addition, CNSKE can be easily applied to solve real negotiation problems.     

A bottom-up approach for forecasting GDP in a data-rich environment

In an increasingly data-rich environment, the use of factor models for forecasting purposes has gained prominence in the literature and among practitioners. Herein, we assess the forecasting behaviour of factor models to predict several GDP components and investigate the performance of a bottom-up approach to forecast GDP growth in Portugal, which was one of the hardest hit economies during the latest economic and financial crisis. We find supporting evidence of the usefulness of factor models and noteworthy forecasting gains when conducting a bottom-approach drawing on the main aggregates of GDP.     

A study on the attributes involved in the hedonic pricing of Brazilian clothing

The objective of this study is to identify the weighted importance of intrinsic and extrinsic attributes. Intrinsic attributes are defined as the specific features of products. Extrinsic attributes refer to other characteristics that are also important for price composition, such as brand, store layout and services, and purchasing experiences. In a survey with 1,923 collected responses, it was possible to identify and quantify intrinsic and extrinsic influencing factors beyond price strategy in the Brazilian fashion market for blue jeans. The statistical analysis was based on the hedonic price method. The idea of expressing the price based on a series of intrinsic and extrinsic variables avoids the problem of using the regression technique. In this research, multiple linear regression and quantile regression were applied. The results show that extrinsic attributes have greater influence than intrinsic features on explaining the final market prices using log-linear and quantile regression statistical methods.     

Non-parametric analysis of poverty duration using repeated cross section: an application for Peru

Using repeated cross-section annual data for Peru spanning 2002–2011 and non-parametric duration analysis, our estimates support the hypothesis that both stay in and exit from poverty (non-poverty) depends on the duration and sequence of poverty (non-poverty) spells. We find that longer periods in poverty reduce the probability of leaving poverty and, conversely, longer periods spent out of poverty reduce the chance of falling back into poverty. Also, we show that, at least in the last decade (of high economic growth), the probability of staying in poverty was lower than staying in non-poverty and the probability of re-entering in poverty was higher than re-entering in non-poverty, being both differences growing with the number of accumulated spells. Past experiences of poverty and non-poverty seem to be essential to predict the future status of poverty.     

Does Financial Development Promote Innovation in Developing Economies? An Empirical Analysis

Using firm‐level data from 2006 to 2013 for a set of developing countries, we examine the effects of financial development on innovation. Financial development boosts innovation by improving resource allocation and investment in strategic sectors as well as facilitating technology to promote growth. Using binary response models and instrumental variable techniques to correct for endogeneity, we find robust but puzzling results. Contrary to most of the existing literature, financial development has a negative effect on the probability of a firm to innovate in developing countries. This effect is conditional on firm size, and only larger firms benefit from financial development. These results are robust to different measures of financial development and econometric specifications. We argue that this is a result of the design of the financial system in regard to the lack of capital and institutional system. Consequently, developing countries should first generate appropriate institutional conditions if they want financial development to spur growth through innovation.