TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF ACCOUNTING POLICY CHOICE: REPLY

Taylor (1992) argues that accounting policy choices in any year are not assessed independently of policy choices adopted in previous years. This independence assumption is a maintained hypothesis of Anderson and Zimmer (1992). Although Taylor acknowledges that our results remain robust to his suggested adjustments for non-independence, we argue in this reply that such adjustments are unnecessary because temporal independence of accounting policy choices is consistent with the implications of costly contracting between the firm and its claimholders. We develop the arguments that (1) accounting choices are temporally independent and our research design is therefore, appropriate (2) to the extent that there is an independence problem of the type proposed by Taylor (1992) it also applies to cross-sectional studies of accounting policy choice.     

The new product development process: past evidence and future practical application, Part 1.

This article conducts a review of the research work into the process of product development and the way in which it has progressed over nearly forty years. It also shows that much of the work is unknown to many product development managers. The article goes on to show why the application of past research evidence has been restricted and describes attempts at translating the results into effective action.     

Corporate Hedging: The Relevance of Contract Specifications and Banking Relationships

This article examines the contribution of hedging to firm valueand the cost of hedging in a unified framework. Optimal hedgingand firm value are explicitly linked to firm risk, the typeof debt covenants and the relative priority of the hedging contract.It is shown that in some cases hedging is possible only if thecounterparty to the forward contract also holds a significantportion of the debt. Also, the spread in the hedging contractreduces the optimal amount of hedging to less than the minimum-variancehedge ratio. Among other results this article elucidates whysome firms hedge using forward contracts while other firms hedgein the futures markets, as well as why higher priority forwardcontracts are more efficient hedging vehicles. JEL Classificationnumbers: G13, G22 and G33.     

Absence management and the issues of job retention and return to work

Strategies aimed at facilitating the job retention and return to work of sick and injured workers are currently the subject of growing attention. In this article the authors examine the nature and potential significance of such strategies to absence management and utilise interview findings to shed light on current employer policies and practices relating to the management of long‐term absences. They conclude that at the national level a large proportion of working days lost through sickness absence stem from relatively long spells of absence and that the adoption of a proactive approach to supporting the return to work of ill and injured workers can have beneficial consequences. However, they further conclude that few organisations appear to have comprehensive arrangements in place to handle cases of long‐term absence. A number of areas where present employer arrangements could usefully be reviewed are therefore identified.     

Food transfers to Asia: A Delphi forecast of required levels

The authors obtained the views of a number of agricultural economists on the desirability and feasibility of future food transfers from rich to poor countries. The consensus view which emerged was that food aid will still be needed in the 1980s but that practical institutional arrangements for it are more likely to come from the political than the economic arena.     

On the optimal taxation of two person households

This paper generalises the optimal commodity tax formulae for households containing one person to cover the empirically relevant case of two person households. We provide an appropriate framework for the empirical estimation of the optimal tax structure and argue that this may be largely determined by female labour supply behaviour.     

Preparing for evil

How can you plan for every crisis that might occur, even for ones you can't imagine? The task seems so daunting and so limitless that many firms don't even start. In fact, as the authors' 20 years of research shows, three out of four Fortune 500 companies are prepared to handle only the types of calamities they've already suffered, and not even all of those. That's unfortunate because the research also shows that crisis-prepared companies fare better financially, have stronger reputations, and ultimately stay in business longer than their crisis prone counterparts. Crisis-prepared companies use a systematic approach to focus their efforts. In addition to planning for natural disasters, they divide man-made calamities into two sorts--accidental or "normal" ones, like the Exxon Valdez oil spill, and deliberate or "abnormal" ones, like product tampering. Then they take steps to broaden their thinking about such potential crises. They consider threats that would be common in other industries, for instance. And they seek input from outsiders such as investigative journalists and even reformed criminals. But if these companies think broadly about possible threats, they think narrowly about implementation. Each year, smart companies focus their resources and attention on a few facilities picked at random, just as airlines conduct detailed security checks on just a few passengers for each flight. That reduces the probability of an attack on the entire organization even as it allows the business to migrate steadily to a higher level of crisis readiness. Crisis-prepared companies know that disasters cannot be managed through cost-benefit analyses. It is precisely because the effects of a disaster cannot be predicted or controlled that smart companies focus their efforts on preventing crises rather than containing them after the fact.     

Economic, Demographic, and Institutional Determinants of Life Insurance Consumption across Countries

Life insurance has become an increasingly important part ofthe financial sector over the past 40 years, providing a rangeof financial services for consumers and becoming a major sourceof investment in the capital market. But what drives the largevariation in life insurance consumption across countries remainsunclear. Using a panel with data aggregated at different frequenciesfor 68 economies in 1961–2000, this article finds thateconomic indicators—such as inflation, income per capita,and banking sector development—and religious and institutionalindicators are the most robust predictors of the use of lifeinsurance. Education, life expectancy, the young dependencyratio, and the size of the social security system appear tohave no robust association with life insurance consumption.The results highlight the importance of price stability andbanking sector development in fully realizing the savings andinvestment functions of life insurance in an economy.     

Profitability and supply price in the US domestic oil industry: implications for the political economy of oil in the twenty-first century

In May 2001, the US Government's National Energy Policy DevelopmentGroup proposed to increase investment in domestic oil resourcesand to diversify further the sourcing of US oil imports by increasingproduction in new petroleum provinces. The paper argues thatboth strands of this policy are dependent upon a third, unstated,objective—to ensure that OPEC retains sufficient marketpower to prevent the sort of collapse in world oil prices thatoccurred in 1998–99. The consequences of that collapse,when the real price of US oil fell to its lowest level in 53years, are explored. Finally, it is argued that the outcomeof the crisis was a rapprochement between OPEC and the US. Itis suggested that the consensus between the US and OPEC as tothe desired range within which the world oil price should moveis likely to survive any temporary political disturbances.