Switching to a poor business activity: optimal capital structure, agency costs and covenant rules

We address the issue of modeling and quantifying the asset substitution problem in a setting where equityholders decisions alter both the volatility and the return of the firm cash flows. Our results contrast with those obtained in models where the agency problem is reduced to a pure risk-shifting problem. We find larger agency costs and lower optimal leverages. We identify the bankruptcy trigger written in debt indenture, which maximizes ex-ante firm value, given that equityholders will ex-post be able to risk-shift. Our model highlights the tradeoff between ex-post inefficient behavior of equityholders and inefficient covenant restrictions.      

Spectral risk measures and portfolio selection

This paper deals with risk measurement and portfolio optimization under risk constraints. Firstly we give an overview of risk assessment from the viewpoint of risk theory, focusing on moment-based, distortion and spectral risk measures. We subsequently apply these ideas to an asset management framework using a database of hedge funds returns chosen for their non-Gaussian features. We deal with the problem of portfolio optimization under risk constraints and lead a comparative analysis of efficient portfolios. We show some robustness of optimal portfolios with respect to the choice of risk measure. Unsurprisingly, risk measures that emphasize large losses lead to slightly more diversified portfolios. However, risk measures that account primarily for worst case scenarios overweight funds with smaller tails which mitigates the relevance of diversification.     

Market Empowerment of the Patient: The French Experience

Through analysis of the French experience, this article explores the way economic policy has sought to encourage active, well-informed patients by giving them market power. The new status of the patient as consumer is based on two foundations: the endeavour to build a healthcare market and the activation of demand-based policies. The keystone of this new system is a conception of the market as a process constructed by economic policy. Recent measures such as the standardization of care and the introduction of incentives to respect a treatment pathway then constitute effective levers to establish a free-market rationale.     

Bonus-Malus Systems

Abstract

Bonus-malus is a merit-rating technique used in most of Europe and Asia, and some Latin American and African countries. Policyholders from a given risk cell are subdivided into bonus-malus classes. Their claims histories then modify the class upon each renewal. Markov chain theory provides the tools for the design, evaluation, and comparison of these systems. In this article, definitions and examples of bonus-malus systems are provided (Section 2). The main actuarial tools for the study and design of bonus-malus systems are reviewed (Section 3). In the discussions that follow, Krupa Subramanian outlines a model for analyzing market shares in a competitive environment, a crucial research topic given current deregulation trends, and Pierre Lemaire compares actuarial with regulatory approaches to bonus-malus.     

Tourism and water use: Supply, demand, and security. An international review

This article reviews direct freshwater consumption in tourism from both quantitative and qualitative viewpoints to assess the current water demand of the tourism sector and to identify current and future management challenges. The article concludes that even though tourism increases global water consumption, direct tourism-related water use is considerably less than 1% of global consumption, and will not become significant even if the sector continues to grow at anticipated rates of around 4% per year (international tourist arrivals). The situation differs at the regional level because tourism concentrates traveller flows in time and space, and often-in dry destinations where water resources are limited. Furthermore, the understanding of tourism’s indirect water requirements, including the production of food, building materials and energy, remains inadequately understood, but is likely to be more substantial than direct water use. The article concludes that with expected changes in global precipitation patterns due to climate change, it is advisable in particular for already water scarce destinations to engage in proactive water management. Recommendations for managing tourism’s water footprint are made.     

Envelope and sensitivity analysis ‘in the large’

New results on global sensitivity analysis are derived. Relying on the saddle-point characterization of the Lagrangean, simple yet powerful results are shown to hold under general conditions. A generalized envelope result is obtained. It does not require differentiability assumptions or unique solution, and it holds for discrete changes.     

On fair allocations

This paper examines the effects of fairness on economic behavior and allocations, where fairness is defined as the absence of envy among consumers. We use the benefit function to investigate the welfare cost of fairness. We show how fairness generates a form of altruism, captured by a “fair expenditure” function that depends on the distribution of welfare. We define the most efficient fair allocations and explore the implications of fairness for economic behavior, pricing and redistribution policies.     

An econometric analysis of the effects of market liberalization on price dynamics and price volatility

The paper investigates price dynamics under market liberalization, with a focus on the effects of lowering price floors. We analyze price dynamics by specifying and estimating a dynamic Tobit model under time-varying volatility, where the market price is censored by a government-set support price. The model is applied to the U.S. butter market over the last three decades. The econometric results show how the price support program affects both expected prices and the volatility of prices. It is found that the censoring effects of a price support program can be significant and large even if the price support is set relatively low.