The profitability of interest arbitrage when the base currency is pegged to a basket

When the interest rate on a currency that is pegged to a basket differs from the interest rate on the basket (as a weighted average), it is possible to make profit from interest arbitrage by going short on the basket and long on the pegged currency, or vice versa. This proposition is illustrated by using data on the Kuwaiti dinar and its basket currencies over the period 1998–2002 when the currency was pegged to a basket. Monte Carlo simulations show that the probability of making arbitrage profit from any single operation is about 95%.     

The Substitution Effect of Mobile Games on Console Games: An Empirical Analysis of the Japanese Video Game Industry

In this paper, we discuss the substitution effects between mobile games and console games. We estimate such effects by a fixed-effect regression with instrumental variables using panel data of about 100,000 observations. The results showed that the substitution effects of playing smart devices on 3DS, Wii, and PSP were recognizable, but did not have significant effects on PS3, and the substitution effects on PSP were very small. Therefore, mobile games had a substitution effect on casual console games, or on console games in which the play situation resembled mobile games. In addition, the substitution effects were at most about 0.1. The substitution effects were small. Our results indicate that mobile games represent the pioneers in the new market of gaming at least during our observation period. But new games and traditional games will coexist for a while.     

表面和谐:概念、测量及研究进展

表面和谐(superficial harmony)是指个体在面对冲突时维持人际和谐的一种动机.与三种和谐因子(增加和谐、避免分裂、视和谐为阻碍)中的避免分裂相对应.表面和谐在本土文化背景下表现尤为突出,在这一动机的驱使下,个体为了避免自身利益损失而回避冲突,与中庸思维、表层扮演以及人际宽恕等概念存在区别.现有研究已经证实:表面和谐这一动机会通过个体效能感、心理预期等心理机制对员工的建言与沉默行为产生影响,或作为宽恕背后的重要动机对个体组织公民行为等结果产生影响.未来研究可以进一步关注:表面和谐对其他结果变量的积极与消极影响,表面和谐与自我损耗的关系以及在团队或组织层面的作用等.     

Survey-based forecast distributions for Euro Area growth and inflation: ensembles versus histograms

Ensemble methods can be used to construct a forecast distribution from a collection of point forecasts. They are used extensively in meteorology, but have received little direct attention in economics. In a real-time analysis of the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, we compare ensemble methods to histogram-based forecast distributions of GDP growth and inflation in the Euro Area. We find that ensembles perform very similarly to histograms, while being simpler to handle in practice. Given the wide availability of surveys that collect point forecasts but not histograms, these results suggest that ensembles deserve further investigation in economics.     

Gender differences in positive perceptions,anxiety, and depression among mothers and fathers of children with intellectual disabilities: a logistic regression analysis

This study explores gender differences in positive perceptions, anxiety, and depression among mothers and fathers of children with intellectual disabilities (IDs). We examined the relationship between these variables and certain characteristics of both the child (age and severity of disability) and the parents (age, educational level, and employment status). A sample of 60 mother/father couples who had children with IDs completed the Positive Contributions Scale to measure their positive perceptions, and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale to assess their level of anxiety and depression. Bivariate analyses were used to determine differences between fathers and mothers as regards their positive perceptions and levels of anxiety and depression. A logistic regression model was then applied to identify which of the variables might be significant predictors of the gender differences observed among parents. Both mothers and fathers had positive perceptions of their children with IDs that co-existed with symptoms of anxiety and depression, with scores being higher among mothers. The predictive analysis of gender showed that individual variables (such as the employment status of both parents) may explain these differences.     

The Rise of Ethnicity under China's Market Reforms

This article investigates the dynamic relationship between economic development and the identification of ethnic minorities and argues that identification of China's ethnic minorities manifests itself at various levels. At the national level, the introduction of market mechanisms and economic growth initiatives have been concentrated predominantly in the coastal areas and metropolises, and are thus increasingly distant from ethnic minorities, a disproportionate majority of which reside in the western parts of the country. This growing regional disparity has placed ethnic regions and populations in a distinctly unfavourable position in terms of economic engagement and development. Regional development in the ethnic‐minority homelands has been characterized by the representation and reinvention of ethnic cultural traditions and the production of cultural economies. Unequal economic growth has resulted in a massive migration of ethnic minorities to the cities. Simultaneously, urban development has reinforced ethnic identity, particularly through urban labour‐market development. Urban and regional development has, in turn, led to the production, activation and magnification of ethnic identity at individual and group levels.