The Falsification of Four Popular Hypotheses About the Asian Crisis

Various claims have been made about the causes of the Asian crisis and its spread. Here, we use data on the behaviour of capital flows during the crisis to test the strong forms of four such hypotheses, that portfolio investors and hedge funds played a dominant role in initiating and/or spreading the crisis; that moral hazard kept efficient markets from predicting the crisis; and, finally, the common lender hypothesis of Kaminsky and Reinhart. In the process we also test implications of the Calvo-Mendoza model of rational investor ignorance. All are falsified as monocausal explanations. For example, portfolio investments that could not have been subject to substantial moral hazard continued to flow into Asia until very shortly before the crisis. Likewise, banks were a much larger source of capital outflows during the crisis than were portfolio investors. While falsified in their strongest forms, several of these hypotheses in less strong forms should play a role in a more nuanced analysis. It is necessary to move past simple single-factor approaches in order to produce a more complete, synthetic explanation of this episode.     

How similar is the world in the internet era? A comparison of e‐business in China,Russia, and Sweden

Much has been written about how e‐business can serve as a strong homogenizing influence and essentially make the world into one market. Yet, little research has empirically investigated this question. This study seeks to describe e‐business activity in China, Sweden, and Russia to identify similarities and differences in the portfolios of e‐business applications in these countries. Our results indicate that different e‐business applications are emerging as more prevalent in different countries. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The Essential Features of Technology and Technology Education: A Conceptual Framework for the Development of OBE (Outcomes Based Education) Related Programmes in Technology Education

It appears that programme development in technology education is emerging from an atheoretical perspective. This could be attributed to the absence/neglect of conceptual frameworks (philosophical underpinning) in the development of programmes in technology education. This article explores the role of the content dimension of the 'essential features' of technology and technology education in OBE (Outcomes Based Education) related programme development. An instructional programme was developed using criteria derived from the essential features of technology and technology education. In order to gauge learners' experience, in relation to these essential features, a qualitative case study involving 20 learners was undertaken at a College of Education. Engagement with theprogramme proved to be an empowering experience for the learners who had hitherto not had the opportunity to experience a formal programme in technology education. Although it could not be proved conclusively that cognitive development had occurred, positive inter-dependence,shared responsibility, social skills and enhanced learning were evident. The study has shown that criteria derived from the 'essential features' of technology and technology education could serve as a reliable yardstick to measure the extent of learning in relation to these essential features     

A comparison of several approximations to the power function of the likelihood ratio test in covariance structure analysis*

In this paper we compare alternative asymptotic approximations to the power of the likelihood ratio test used in covariance structure analysis for testing the fit of a model. Alternative expressions for the noncentrality parameter (ncp) lead to different approximations to the power function. It appears that for alternative covariance matrices close to the null hypothesis, the alternative ncp's lead to similar values, while for alternative covariance matrices far from H_o the different expressions for the ncp can conflict substantively. Monte Carlo evidence shows that the ncp proposed in Satorra and Saris (1985) gives the most accurate power approximations.     

Network neutrality and the nature of competition between network operators

The neutral architecture of the Internet is being challenged by various parties, such as network operators providing the connections to end-users, who are interested in gaining control of the information exchanged over the Internet. What are the effects on competition and welfare of such practices? Currently, there exists very little economic theory on network neutrality. This paper provides a preliminary analysis of the type of economic modeling that can address network neutrality, as well as of the type of results that can be expected.     

Is your vision consistent?: A method for checking, based on scenario concepts

Common sense tells us that the future is an essential element in any strategy. In addition, there is a good deal of literature on scenario planning, which is an important tool in considering the future in terms of strategy. However, in many organizations there is serious resistance to the development of scenarios, and they are not broadly implemented by companies. But even organizations that do not rely heavily on the development of scenarios do, in fact, construct visions to guide their strategies. But it might be asked, what happens when this vision is not consistent with the future? To address this problem, the present article proposes a method for checking the content and consistency of an organization's vision of the future, no matter how it was conceived. The proposed method is grounded on theoretical concepts from the field of future studies, which are described in this article. This study was motivated by the search for developing new ways of improving and using scenario techniques as a method for making strategic decisions. The method was then tested on a company in the field of information technology in order to check its operational feasibility. The test showed that the proposed method is, in fact, operationally feasible and was capable of analyzing the vision of the company being studied, indicating both its shortcomings and points of inconsistency.