Using Delphi for a Long-Range Technology Forecasting, and Assessing Directions of Future R&D Activities The Korean Exercise

This article summarizes and discusses major findings of the Korean Delphi. The Korean Delphi was first carried out on a large scale. The results of the Korean Delphi include the forecast time of realization and an evaluation of importance for about 1200 technological topics. The forecast time of realization was estimated and compared in both Korea and the world's leading countries. We also provide a comparison of the Delphi results among Korea, Japan, and Germany, with some topics in common in the areas of information, electronics, and communications technology. This study interprets the results of the Delphi and explores the future directions of R&D activities with relevance to the Korean Society.     

Understanding the Backus–Smith puzzle: It's the (nominal) exchange rate,stupid

Backus, Kehoe and Kydland (BKK 1992) demonstrated that if international capital markets are complete, consumption growth correlations across countries should be higher than their corresponding output growth correlations. In stark contrast to the theory, however, in actual data the consumption growth correlation is lower than the output growth correlation. By assuming trade imperfections due to non-traded goods, Backus, D.K., Smith, G.W. [1993 Consumption and real exchange rates in dynamic economies with non-traded goods. Journal of International Economics 35(3–4), 297–316] showed that there is an additional impediment at work that can lower the consumption growth correlation. While their argument was successful in partially explaining the puzzlingly low cross country correlation of consumption growth rates, it contributed to generating another puzzle because the data forcefully show that consumption growth is negatively correlated with the real exchange rate, which is also a violation of the theory. Using data for OECD countries, we decompose real exchange rate growth into its nominal exchange rate growth and inflation differential components, and find that nominal exchange rate movements are the main source for the Backus-Smith puzzle. We demonstrate the robustness of this finding by examining sub-samples of the data, by allowing for imperfect risk sharing due to ‘rule of thumb’ consumers, and by examining intranational data across the U.S. states where the nominal exchange rate is fixed.     

Recent developments of the autoregressive distributed lag modelling framework

We review the literature on the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, from its origins in the analysis of autocorrelated trend stationary processes to its subsequent applications in the analysis of cointegrated non-stationary time series. We then survey several recent extensions of the ARDL model, including asymmetric and non-linear generalisations of the ARDL model, the quantile ARDL model, the pooled mean group dynamic panel data model and the spatio-temporal ARDL model.     

Aggregate Information and Organizational Structures*

We study information flows in an organization with a top management (principal) and multiple subunits (agents) with private information that determines the organization's overall efficiency. Under centralized communication, eliciting the agents' information may induce the principal to manipulate aggregate information, which obstructs an effective use of information. Under hierarchical communication, the principal concedes more information rent due to loss of control, but is able to use the agents' information more effectively. The trade-off between the organizational structures depends on the likelihood that the agents are efficient. Centralized communication is optimal when such likelihood is low. Hierarchical communication, by contrast, is optimal when it is high.     

The influence of chatbot humour on consumer evaluations of services

Technological advances have enabled firms to automate customer service by employing artificial intelligence (AI) chatbots. Despite their many potential benefits, interactions with chatbots may still feel machine-like and cold. The current study proposes the use of humour by chatbots as a gateway to humanizing them and thereby enhancing the customer experience. Across three experimental studies, the results reveal that (i) the use of humour enhances service satisfaction when it is used by a chatbot but not when it is used by a human agent, (ii) this chatbot humour effect is serially mediated by enhanced perceptions of anthropomorphism and interestingness of the interactions with the chatbot, and (iii) whilst both positively and negatively valenced chatbot humour may enhance the interestingness of the interactions, socially appropriate (i.e., affiliative) humour as opposed to inappropriate (i.e., aggressive) humour leads to enhanced service satisfaction. This study extends the understanding of the humanization processes of chatbots and provides guidelines for how firms should use chatbot humour to positively influence consumers' service satisfaction.     

Connecting nature with luxury service

Many service and retail facilities, such as hotels, restaurants, hospitals, and airports, are incorporating nature elements into their building design. Individuals' affinity for nature is called biophilia. The literature on biophilic design heavily focuses on the restorative effects of biophilic design on the facility users, leaving many other effects under-investigated. In particular, biophilic design implementation requires significant financial investment, thus, whether biophilic design can bring financial returns from consumers would be of interest to practitioners. This study investigates whether biophilic design attributes are linked to consumers’ willingness to pay a price premium (WTPP). Two pretests show that when biophilic attributes are moderately implemented, they can elevate aesthetic and attractiveness perceptions, but this effect tapers off if the implementation is excessive. Through three between-subjects main experiments, this study confirms that WTPP is enhanced via increased aesthetic value and luxury perceptions when biophilic attributes are present (vs. absent—Studies 1 and 2), but this serial mediation is moderated by biophilic scarcity (low vs. high—Study 3). An adequate level of nature elements, when implemented in biophilic-scarce areas, can improve customers' perceptions of aesthetic value and luxury. This, in turn, improves customers' WTPP for the service.     

Does venture capital investment enhance corporate innovation? Evidence from Korea

We examine whether venture capital (VC) investment enhances corporate innovation in Korea. Using a matched sample of 802 firms from 1998 to 2012, we find that after the first round of VC investment, VC-backed firms are more innovative than non-VC-backed firms. Our results suggest that the positive influence of VC investment largely comes from the ability of VC firms to reduce information asymmetry between investors and ventures: VC funds managed by independent venture capitalists significantly enhance corporate innovation, whereas those managed by governmental venture capitalists do not. Furthermore, this positive influence becomes more pronounced where there is greater information asymmetry. Finally, we show that funds with profit-based compensation structures are more likely to encourage corporate innovation than those with fee-based compensation structures.     

Environmental reputation and bank liquidity: Evidence from climate transition

This study empirically investigates how a bank's nonfinancial signals of environmental reputation affect its deposits and credit provision in US counties with severe climate transition risks. We find that banks with higher reputational risks associated with environmental issues tend to experience declining deposits in counties exposed to severe climate change risks. Banks with a poor environmental reputation also reduce mortgage origination in such counties and diminish liquidity creation if they have high deposit shares in counties sensitive to climate transition. This study suggests that a bank's reputation regarding environmental, social and governance practices is an important underlying cause of bank liquidity in areas sensitive to climate change.     

Incentive Contract Design and Employee-Initiated Innovation: Evidence from the Field*

This study examines how the design of incentive contracts for tasks defined as workers' official responsibilities (i.e., standard tasks) influences workers' propensity to engage in employee-initiated innovation (EII). EII corresponds to innovation activities that are not formally assigned to workers but are nonetheless encouraged and considered to be important for the company's success. Like other extra-role behaviors, EII is difficult to incentivize directly. Therefore, it is important to understand whether and how explicit incentive contracts designed for the workers' standard tasks may indirectly influence their EII activity. We use field data from a manufacturing company that uses a dedicated information system to track workers' EII idea submissions. We find theory-consistent evidence that, compared to workers receiving fixed pay, employees rewarded for their standard tasks with variable compensation contracts exhibit a lower propensity to engage in EII. This result is concentrated among ideas benefiting other constituents and activities beyond the proponents' standard task (i.e., broad-scope ideas). In contrast, we find no difference attributable to standard task incentive design in the proposal of innovation ideas narrowly focused on the proponent's standard task (i.e., narrow-scope ideas). Our findings suggest that variable pay narrows employees' conceptual focus around the standard task and hinders employee engagement in broad-scope innovation activities compared to fixed compensation contracts. We contribute to the literature on incentives for innovation by showing that standard task compensation contracts have spillover effects on EII behavior. We also contribute to the nascent literature on EII by showing that innovation types, defined based on their relation with the proponent's standard task, matter. Our results are relevant for practitioners in that managers relying on variable pay contracts to incentivize standard task performance should expect lower employee engagement in broad-scope EII.