山东省农业发展灰色系统预测

本文依据灰色系统理论建立了山东省农业的GM（1，1）模型并进行了预测，分析了山东省农业的发展态势，提出了保证农业持续和稳定发展的措施。     

Service Quality,Competition, and Regulatory Policies in the Postal Sector

This paper presents a simple model which illustrates the possible policy- and welfare-implications of endogenous product selection in the postal sector. The cost of a unit of mail depends on its "quality" (e.g., speed of delivery) and on the type and location of the addressee (firms, urban households, and rural households). Senders have inelastic demands and differ in their willingness to pay for quality. Addressees are passive but their utility may affect social welfare. Two operators play a two-stage game, first choosing qualities and then prices. We first show that the equilibrium with two private (profit maximizing) operators results in an inefficient provision of quality. Then, we consider the mixed (Nash) equilibrium with one private and one (welfare maximizing) public operator. If the budget constraint of the public firm is not binding, this equilibrium is shown to be first-best efficient even if social welfare accounts for the utility of addressees. If the budget constraint is binding, the mixed equilibrium is not efficient but yields a higher level of welfare than the private equilibrium. Finally, we study the impact of minimum quality standards within our setting.     

Migration to the United States and Mexican rural development: a case study

An analysis of the impact of migration to the United States on the sending community and on the labor market in the receiving country is presented based on a case study of Las Animas, Mexico. "As the community becomes increasingly involved in migration, tendencies can be identified regarding changing migration patterns, class differentiation among villagers, impact of migration on village economy, and the changing role of Mexican workers in California labor markets. Results indicate the importance of social networks in determining the outcome of migration; while migration is individually rational, it is a factor of stagnation for village economy, and it helps reproduce segmented California labor markets."     

"突破菏泽"经济发展模式的几点思考

菏泽市，古称曹州。历史上，菏泽因水而穷。建国前，黄河三年两决口，菏泽人民饱受自然灾害之苦，生产条件恶劣，工业几乎空白。建国后到改革开放前，菏泽处于吃粮靠统销、生产靠贷款、生活靠救济的“三靠”状态。长期恶劣的生存环境使不少菏泽百姓逐渐形成了不敢积累、不愿意积累、无意识积累的生活习惯。从1992年到2002年的10年间，菏泽市GDP年均增长6．8％，比全省平均水平低6个百分点，菏泽市累计实际利用外资仅占全省累计实际利用外资的1％，累计出口总值仅占全省累计出口总值的0．5％。2003年菏泽市人均GDP3337元，仅为全省平均水平的25％。1992年菏泽GDP同德州、聊城、滨州经济实力大体相当，现在差距却越来越大，从这些数字中折射出一个严峻的现实：菏泽何去何从？     

Does Foreign Direct Investment Crowd Out Domestic Entrepreneurship?

In analyzing firm entry and exit across Belgian manufacturing industries, this paper presents evidence that import competition and foreign direct investment discourage entry and stimulate exit of domestic entrepreneurs. These results are in line with theoretical occupational choice models that predict foreign direct investment would crowd out domestic entrepreneurs through their selections in product and labor markets. However, the empirical results also suggest that this crowding out effect may be moderated or even reversed in the long-run due to the long term positive effects of FDI on domestic entrepreneurship as a result of learning, demonstration, networking and linkage effects between foreign and domestic firms.     

试析保险欺诈

保险欺诈是保险公司面临的一项难题。保险欺诈的形式有订立保险合同时的欺诈和保险索赔时的欺诈。保险欺诈的产生有其本质根源、社会根源、心理根源和保险业的内部根源。寻找有效的防范保险欺诈的方法需要从加大保险宣传、充分利用法律武器及提高保险公司的承保和理赔管理水平各方面入手。     

论个人资信评估体系的构建主体

结合其他国家建立信用体系的经验及我国进行信征集试点城市的现状来分析以政府牵头为主，金融机构先行为主及第三方自发为主的三个构建主体方案的利弊，最终得出一个适合中国国情的、合理的、高效的个人资信体系构建主体。     

企业多元化的新模式：基于核心能力的虚拟经营

本文研究了企业多元化经营的科学含义，创建了一个二元作用定性模型来论证企业发展到一定阶段多元化经营的必然性，研究了现代企业虚拟经营的背景，含义以及企业深化，培育核心能力与开展虚拟经营之间的本质联系，考察了多元化成功与失败的众多企业案例，当代多元化经营成功的企业大多是基于核心能力的战略相关多元化，而虚拟经营也是核心能力培育，深化的产物，借助于基于核心能力的虚拟经营以实现相关多元化发展，是企业多元化的一条新途径，相对于传统多元化而言，它更具竞争优势。     

The Global Determinants of Direct Office Real Estate Returns

We investigate the determinants of direct office real estate returns by analyzing rents, capital appraisals, and total returns. A recently compiled global database of major cities in Asia, Europe, and the United States provides a unique opportunity to give a macro-view on the effects of economic growth and supply and demand factors on nominal real estate returns. The global database provides quarterly observations from 1986 to 1999. To address the smoothness problem of appraisal-based price data and regulated rents, we employ the Generalized Method of Moments to estimate a dynamic panel-data model. The model allows us to combine the cross-sectional and time-series dimension in our quarterly data. We find that gross domestic product, inflation, unemployment, vacancy rate, and the available stock all have an effect on real estate returns.     

反商业贿赂与政府采购机制的完善

政府采购已成为财政支出的重要组成部分.巨大的利润空间给政府采购带来了商业贿赂的风险.运用成本-收益理论、政府规制俘获理论和公平理论,分析其产生的根源及可能带来的后果,可采取相应措施消除政府采购中商业贿赂因子的现实途径.