Does Forecast Combination Improve Norges Bank Inflation Forecasts?*

We develop a system that provides model‐based forecasts for inflation in Norway. We recursively evaluate quasi out‐of‐sample forecasts from a large suite of models from 1999 to 2009. The performance of the models are then used to derive quasi real time weights that are used to combine the forecasts. Our results indicate that a combination forecast improves upon the point forecasts from individual models. Furthermore, a combination forecast outperforms Norges Bank's own point forecast for inflation. The beneficial results are obtained using a trimmed weighted average. Some degree of trimming is required for the combination forecasts to outperform the judgmental forecasts from the policymaker.     

The aftermath of reunification

This article traces the evolution of the East German wage structure throughout the transition period 1992–2001. Wage dispersion has generally been rising. This increase occurred predominantly in the lower part of the wage distribution for women and in the upper part for men. Moreover, the sectoral transition affected female workers to a much larger extent than their male counterparts. A sequential decomposition analysis using quantile regressions reveals that changes in industry‐specific remuneration schemes contributed strongly to the rise in wage inequality in the lower part of the distribution for women, whereas changes in the industry composition alone would have led to a polarization of wages. In contrast, for men, changes in individual characteristics are the single most important factor contributing to the increasing wage dispersion. These gender differences are attributed to employment segregation across industries present right after German reunification.     

Women's leisure: divergence,reconceptualization and change — the case of the Netherlands

This paper consists of two sections. In the first, theoretical, section I explore the questions of divergence and reconceptualization of women's leisure with notions derived from Giddens's structuration theory. In the second section these theoretical notions are used to structure empirical findings from the Netherlands. This results in three different types of women's leisure. The traditional family type has a long history, while the modern family type and the individualistic type are rather new. Each type can be characterised by a specific division of leisure into own time, leisured caring time and leisured labour time and by a specific time-space behaviour. Both the modern family type and the individualistic type are strongly related to women's growing participation in the labour market, which for the former type goes hand-in-hand with an unequal gender division of work. The expectation is that, rather than the individualistic type, the modern family type will become most widespread in the Netherlands and that therefore unequal gender relations in the labour, caring and leisure domain will endure.     

„Insuring the Agents“ – Managerdisziplinierung und Rolle der D&;O-Versicherung als Instrument der Corporate Governance

Directors' and officers' (D&;O) insurance can play an important role in disciplining managers in the interest of the shareholders' goals. I investigate the current status of the discussion on D&;O insurance in Germany and the role of D&;O insurance as well as D&;O insurers as a corporate governance instrument. Using the agency theory, the paper argues that shareholders of large German corporations delegate the monitoring to the board (Aufsichtsrat), to the independent auditor, but also to D&;O insurers. Given the German Managed Governance system with a traditionally high degree of debt financing and bank control, the monitoring role of the D&;O insurers can therefore be interpreted as being similar to creditor monitoring.     

Relationship Between Organizational Form and Organizational Memory: An Investigation in a Professional Service Organization

The goal of this research is to study the relation between organizational form (OF) and organizational memory (OM). It examines what kind of roles OM plays in different OFs--that is, how OM is used in organizational action--and whether changes in a firm's organizational form relate to changes in the role of OM. These relationships are examined in the context of how information technology (IT) is used to support organizational remembering. The study outlines different manifestations of OM in 1 company as it underwent major organizational transformations during a 3-year period. The manifestations are grouped into "bins," expanding the storage structure concept by Walsh and Ungson to include OM contents and processes of use. The bins are supplemented with an additional bin, the organizational information space, to address the collaborative aspect of OM. Another new construct, the organizational memory profile, is introduced to summarize the combination of OM manifestations in a particular organization at a particular time. The OM profiles are outlined for the case company and they show marked differences between OFs. This upholds the claim that different OFs present different kinds of arenas for OM. IT support for various bins is analyzed and a variety of IT support is recognized. This upholds the view that several OM support systems are needed and that IT can play a significant role in making past events more accessible.     

Schöpft die PKV den Rahm ab? Eine spieltheoretische Analyse der Effekte der PKV auf die Medikamentenqualität

Quality of medical treatment is a major goal of Germany’s statutory health insurance system. According to our game theoretic approach, existing price-discrimination between statutory and private health insurance leads to higher quality of innovative drugs. Hence, a move into the direction of a national health service system (so-called citizen insurance) should result in a reduction of innovative drugs’ quality. Moreover and in the case of citizens insurance’s implementation, innovative drugs’ price level should increase for patients with statutory health insurance. Furthermore, a similar effect is caused by the Act on the Reform of the Market for Medicinal Products (AMNOG) which leads to reduced prospects for pricediscriminations between the statutory and private health insurance system. In summary, the existence of private health insurance in Germany does not cause unfavourable cream-skimming. Rather the split-up of the German health care sector (statutory vs. private health insurance) results in eligible higher drug quality at lower prices for patients with statutory health insurance.     

Entwicklung der Risiko- und Prognoseberichterstattung am deutschen Kapitalmarkt

To decrease information gaps between accounted equity and firm value the management forecast- and risk reporting is of great importance according to the agency and communication theory. The present study gives an overview about the normative development of the management reporting. Earlier reforms of the German legislator and the principles of management reporting can only partially limit the discretions by drawing up the forecast and risk report. The central focus of the following meta-analysis lies on measuring the quantity, quality and influence factors of forecast and risk reports at the German capital market during the business years 2000?C2009. The management intention of a precise forecast- and risk reporting, which can be explained by the Blackwell theorem and the Unraveling principle, is mainly not realized. The main influence factors on forecast and risk reporting are firm size, the index notation and the industry. In fact of reporting gaps we discuss the normative development of management reporting in Germany with regard to the management commentary of the IFRS, the management??s discussion & analysis (MD&A) of the US-GAAP and the potential implementation of certain rules of DRS 5 and DRS 15 into German commercial law.