ASIAN REAL EXCHANGE RATES AND OIL PRICES: A COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS UNDER STRUCTURAL BREAKS

We examine the long‐run relationship between Asian real exchange rates and oil prices in the presence of structural breaks. The relevance of considering breaks is demonstrated by utilizing the Johansen et al. procedure that allows for up to two predetermined breaks. Using conventional tests that do not consider breaks reveals no evidence of cointegration. However, the Johansen et al. procedure clearly demonstrates the importance of considering breaks and provides strong support for a stable long‐run relationship in all but Japan and the Philippines. Moreover, the results suggest evidence of bi‐directional causality in Malaysia and Thailand, uni‐directional causality from exchange rates to oil prices in Korea, the Philippines, and Singapore, uni‐directional causality from oil prices to the exchange rate in Indonesia, and no evidence of causality in Japan.     

Financial development and governance: A panel data analysis incorporating cross-sectional dependence

This study investigates bidirectional causality between governance and financial development using panel data of 101 countries from 1984 to 2013. The financial development–governance nexus is explored using econometric methods robust to cross-sectional dependence, and the relationship between different levels of development and openness is analyzed. Long-run equation estimates show clear evidence that financial development positively affects governance, and this positive impact is found to be robust to three different measures of governance. Further analysis shows that improving governance quality has a positive effect on financial development, while Granger causality tests demonstrate bidirectional causality between financial development and the governance measures. Finally, the impact of financial development on governance is dependent on a country’s level of development and openness. These findings underscore the crucial role of financial development in bringing about good governance reforms and economic growth that, in turn, can further develop the financial sector. As such, a symbiotic and synergistic relationship can persist between good governance, growth, and financial development. The findings provide significant motivation for policymakers to encourage openness and financial sector development to lift the standard of living, especially in emerging economies.     

Predicting future financial performance of banks from management’s tone in the textual disclosures

Quality & Quantity - Predicting bank performance is important for investors and regulatory authorities. Previous research on non-financial firms has shown that augmenting the numeric...     

Research note and communication. The impact of environmental uncertainty on long-range planning practices of the U.S. savings and loan industry

This paper examines the effects of extreme degrees of environmental uncertainty on strategic planning in the U.S. Savings and Loan industry. Results suggest that top management's interpretation of the environment is a strong moderator of the link between environmental uncertainty and the extent of long-range planning.     

Work–family conflict/family–work conflict,job stress,burnout and intention to leave in the hotel industry in Quebec (Canada): moderating role of need for family friendly practices as “resource passageways”

Abstract

This study examines how the need for family friendly practices contribute in increasing the effects of work–family conflict (WFC) and family–work conflict (FWC) on job stress, burnout, and intention to leave in the hotel industry in Quebce (258 staff). The essential results indicate that the perception of a need for childcare moderates the relationship between FWC, job stress, and burnout. Also, employees wanting to have a compressed workweek and part time measures are exposed to more stress related to WFC/FWC. Finally, the four measures can constitute resources passageways in order to reduce the work-family interference, job stress, burnout and therefore the intention to leave. Theoretically, he results extend this line of theorizing by highlighting the importance of subjective needs for family friendly policies, as ‘resource caravan passageways’, in the work–family interface and job outcome processes. The perception of a desire or need for these measures offers a new understanding of these practices. Practically, identifying who is more sensitive to family friendly measures would enable organizations or employers to allocate supportive resources more adequately by targeting those employees who are most in need of such practices.     

A Study of Correlation Aspects in Probabilistic NPV Analysis

In probabilistic net present value (NPV) analysis, expressed in terms of benefits and costs, the expected value and variance of the net present value are determined from the expected values and variances of the benefits and costs and correlations between benefits and costs. This article outlines an empirical study and an examination of the correlation between benefits and costs. Intercomponent and intertemporal correlations are estimated. In addition, the article determines the upper and lower bounds of the variance of the net present value, when the exact intertemporal and intercomponent correlations are not known.     

The effect of trade and political institutions on economic institutions

This study examines the relationship between trade and the quality of economic institutions under different political institutions. It uses panel data of 138 countries from 1984 to 2010 and employs instrumental variables and identification through heteroscedasticity to mitigate the problem of endogeneity. The findings suggest that the effect of trade on economic institutions reduces significantly in the presence of extractive political institutions. The findings indicate that ‘trade’ is not a sufficient tool for improving economic institutions; rather, trade policies need to be embedded in distinct political institutions to trigger the substantive improvement of economic institutions.     

OPEC and political considerations when deciding on oil extraction

Two oil price shocks changed the pattern of cheap oil. The first was the Arab embargo on oil exports in 1973. Oil prices rose five fold. In 1978, the second was the fall of Shah Iran. Prices soared to $80–$100 a barrel in today’s prices. In 1960, OPEC was established and since then it has been a considerable political and economic force in the oil market. Two thirds of the world’s oil reserves belong to OPEC members. OPEC is accused of being responsible for most of the price increases due to their production cuts and market power. This paper provides a general framework to examine the role of OPEC in affecting oil prices through the extracted quantities. A mathematical model is developed to explore the objective function of OPEC, which includes economic and political considerations. The idea is that OPEC members consider both the political support of their citizens and profits when determining oil extraction rates. This support is represented by a “harm function” which was added to the objective function of OPEC. The solution of the model lends some support for inclusion of this harm function, through which OPEC benefits from the cuts in production aimed at harming the western countries. For this harm function to be meaningful empirically, OPEC members should have a high harm indicator, α_t. With high harm indicator values, OPEC harms itself financially. The results suggest that OPEC appears to be accepting considerable monetary setbacks to appease its citizens’ taste for harming the West. At different discount rates, the monetary losses range from about 10–20%. Solving the mathematical model required estimation of the residual demand that OPEC faces plus the cost function that applies to OPEC production. This paper reports the results of these estimations.