Credit risk and sustainable debt: a model and estimations of why the Euro is stable in the long-run

Sustainable debt has become the key issue in rating of private as well as sovereign debtors. The problem of how to estimate sustainable debt has also been at the center of the debate over the Asian 1997–1998 financial crisis. If the external value of the currency depends on the external debt of a country, it is necessary to estimate the creditworthiness of the country. This paper studies credit risk and sustainable debt in the context of a dynamic model. For a dynamic growth model with an additional equation for the evolution of debt, we demonstrate of how to compute sustainable debt and creditworthiness. The model is estimated by employing time series data for the core countries of the Euro-area. The computations show that the Euro-area has large external assets. Using time series methods, the sustainability of external debt (assets) is estimated for those core countries of the Euro-area. Those estimations show that the Euro will be a stable currency in the long-run.     

HBS-JFE conference volume: complementary research methods

The purpose of the Harvard Business School-Journal of Financial Economics conference was to reexamine the role of clinical work in our profession. Clinical research–empirical work that examines a relatively small number of events intensively–accounts for a very small fraction of published work in the field. The pieces in this conference volume are case studies of different “clinical” research techniques that are used to develop, test, apply and communicate theory.     

Produktgarantien und Aktienkrise — Implikationen für die Kapitalanlagepolitik von Lebensversicherungsunternehmen

The present contribution analyzes the implications of two central factors influencing the asset allocation decision of (German) life insurance companies, the development of the equity market on one hand and the interest rate guarantees included in traditional life insurance products on the other. The adverse development of share prices in 2000–2002 implies the necessity to consider not only ?normal“ volatility but also worst case-developments for the purpose of risk control. Formally this is done by using the risk measures value-at-risk and conditional value-at-risk. The specific ?myopic“ nature of interest rate guarantees in German life insurance products, which are granted on a yearly basis implies — beyond the general control of the shortfall risk with respect to the guaranteed interest rates — the necessity to per-form the asset allocation on a yearly basis to be in conformity with the time horizon of the liabilities.On the basis of a quantitative approach corresponding model calculations are performed. Thereby not only a pure market valuation is considered but also institutional peculiarities (hidden reserves, accounting norms) of German life insurance companies. The possibility of a riskless one-year investment, either based on market values or on balance sheet values, is revealed to be crucial for giving interest rate guarantees on a yearly basis.     

Branding and relationships: Customer and supplier perspectives

This paper explores and investigates the role of branding within financial services. Specifically, the study aims to assess the importance of branding and its associated elements including brand image and brand experience in the relationships that exist between consumers and their financial brands. It aims to achieve this through research, which identifies gaps between the managerial and consumer perspectives on branding in relationships in retail financial services. It is well established that the characteristics of services are different from those of manufactured goods and that service personnel play a central role in the services experience. Moreover, the concept of relationship marketing within services proclaims the importance of one-to-one relationships between businesses and customers as well as relationships between consumers and their brands. Drawing from the fields of brand management, relationship marketing and services marketing, this research aims to investigate the perceptional differences between consumers and suppliers in relation to the importance of branding in financial service relationships. The research findings indicate that brand experience appears to be far more salient than brand image in shaping and building meaningful and lasting brand perceptions and promoting customer retention.     

Discussion of “Forward Versus Trailing Earnings in Equity Valuation”

The focus of this discussion is on the empirical implications of Yee (2004, this issue). Yee's key contribution is the introduction of belief dependency into the model developed in Ohlson (1995), Feltham and Ohlson (1995, 1996), and Ohlson and Zhang (1998). Yee's primary conclusion is that accruals that do not incorporate beliefs about unobservable information lead to contemporaneous accounting data that are not sufficient for valuation but often belief-free accruals can lead to forward earnings that may be valuation sufficient. Yee (2004) provides an alternative theoretical model of the relation between firm value, trailing earnings, and forward earnings. This model may be used (1) to re-interpret the results of numerous empirical studies of the relation between market metrics, trailing earnings, and forward earnings, and (2) as the basis for framing further hypotheses and empirical studies.     

家乐福:为全球零售商上课

家乐福集团在中国开设的大型超市就像零售业中的一个"海峡"--从东方和从西方卷来的大浪交织在一起:东方--在超市一边的货架上,可以看到大量鲜活的鱼、虾、牛蛙甚至甲鱼;西方--在另一边不远的冷藏柜里,又能看到真空包装的烟熏咸肉和意大利腊肠.这个来自法国的超级零售商运用现代的模式,结合当地人的口味,在中国经营着他们的零售帝国.     

On the Role of Weight Restrictions in Data Envelopment Analysis

This paper examines the role that weight restrictions play in Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). It is argued that the decision to include a factor (input or output) in a DEA model represents an implicit judgement that the factor has a non-trivial weight. It therefore seems perverse to allow DEA to assign a trivial weight to that factor in assessing the efficiency of a unit. There is therefore a strong case for imposing restrictions on factor weights. However, many existing methods of weight restriction are in practice unwieldy. This paper proposes an alternative approach we term contingent weight restriction which is both practical and intellectually consistent with the DEA philosophy. The paper explores the implications of alternative methods of weight restriction using simulated data from a well known production process.