Introducing intertemporal and open economy features in applied general equilibrium models

Summary This paper discusses the importance to tax policy analysis of intertemporal decisions and international capital flows and indicates how these elements can be incorporated in applied general equilibrium models. The paper emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between physical and financial capital as well as between the mobility and substitutability of financial capital. A specific model based on intertemporal optimizing behavior illustrates these issues. This intertemporal model allows for imperfect mobility of physical capital by considering adjustment costs in the investment process, and incorporates imperfect substitution of financial capital by integrating portfolio choice with utility maximization.This paper was prepared for the Symposium on Applied General Equilibrium Models for Open Economies, Noordwijk, The Netherlands, December 3–5, 1989. We are very grateful to Symposium participants for helpful comments. The views expressed in this paper are strictly personal and do not necessarily reflect the official position of the International Monetary Fund.     

Management ownership and corporate value

Existing literature on the relation between management ownership and firm value has provided competing hypotheses and conflicting evidence. Using samples of Fortune 500-sized firms in 1976, 1980 and 1984, we find that corporate value measured by Tobin's q is a function of management ownership. Specifically, the q rises when management ownership is between 0% and 5-7%, and falls as the ownership increases to 10-12%. Beyond this range, we find that the q continues to fall in the 1976 sample, and starts to rise in the 1980 and 1984 samples. The evidence supports the hypothesis that there is a nonmonotonic relation between management ownership and corporate value.     

OVER-THE-COUNTER FIRMS,ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION,AND FINANCING PREFERENCES

A puzzling empirical finding is that firms often seem to follow a pecking-order hierarchy of financing. Asymmetric information has been hypothesized as one possible explanation for the pecking-order hierarchy. A survey of Fortune 500 firms found strong support for the pecking-order model. This study surveys over-the-counter firms which seem more likely to experience asymmetric information than the Fortune 500. The findings of this study provide empirical support for the asymmetric information hypothesis by demonstrating that managers of firms with greater asymmetric information are more likely to believe their stock is mispriced leading them to follow the pecking-order model of financing.     

Postauditing capital assets and firm performance: An empirical investigation

The argument presented in this paper is that the adoption of sophisticated postaudit procedures should be associated with improved firm performance. Based on a matched-pair experimental design, utilizing the Wilcoxon matched-pairs signed-ranks test and a newly developed statistic to test for a change point, empirical evidence is provided to support this argument.     

Optimal maintenance center inventories for fault-tolerant repairable systems

In many military and commercial contexts, complex equipment which is expected to perform very reliably is often designed to be fault-tolerant, that is, able to function although some of the parts have failed. A popular fault-tolerant design is the m-out-of-n system, where there are n identical parts, at least m of which must be functional for machine operation. Complex equipment of this type often undergoes scheduled maintenance overhauls at regular intervals during which all failed components are replaced. Failure to have replacements on hand for failed parts requires emergency measures at premium cost. When repairable parts are highly reliable and expensive, both holding and shortage costs are high. A reasonable objective is to choose initial spares inventory to minimize the sum of holding costs and expected shortage costs.We first develop a model to determine the optimal repairable parts inventory for a maintenance center servicing machines containing a single m-out-of-n system. The model is then extended to handle a related problem, finding optimal maintenance center inventories for machines containing several m-out-of-n systems of different parts, minimizing total expected costs subject to a constraint on total inventory investment.We assume that there is a fleet of machines, which experience identical workloads. There is a cycle time of T days between overhauls for an individual machine. A machine arrives at the maintenance center for overhaul each day. At the overhaul, all failed parts are removed and sent to a repair shop, from which they eventually return to the maintenance center to be used again as spares. The total number of spares undergoing repair and on hand is a constant. There are no backorders; if the number on-hand spares is insufficient to meet demand at an overhaul, a shortage penalty is assessed which depends on the number and type of spares required.While computing holding costs is straightforward, computing expected shortage costs is more complex. Expected shortage costs are dependent upon several factors, including component failure rates, the values of m and n, part repair rates, and the initial number of spares on hand. We assume that the system of interest is well specified, so that the parameters of the model are known except for the number of initial spares of each type, which are the decision variables. We model the on-hand inventory of each type of part as a Markov chain with the number of spares on hand at the end of each day as the states, under the assumptions that failure rates are constant and repair times follow independent exponential distributions. We then calculate the steady-state probabilities of stockout of various numbers of spares, as a function of the initial spares inventory. The expected shortage costs for a given type of spare may then be calculated by finding the product of the penalty cost for lacking p spares and the probability of lacking p spares and summing over all possible p values.Solutions to the problem of finding optimal initial inventory level for a machine containing a single m-out-of-n system may be found easily by enumeration. Solutions to the constrained problem where the machine contains several independent m-out-of-n systems, may be found by dynamic programming. Sensitivity analysis of costs to changes in the inventory investment constraint is clear, and computational effort is reasonable. A simple example is included to illustrate the solution method for both problems.     

The assessment of the expected value of information in the binary decision model

The expected value of information represents the maximum amount the decision maker should spend on inquiry before making a decision. This amount depends upon the accuracy of the information. In many cases of inquiry, prior objective knowledge of the accuracy is not available. This paper presents and compares two methods of subjectively assessing the value of imperfect information in the binary decision model. In the first method, the decision maker provides a likelihood function for the inquiry and hence the probabilities of error. The second method is the preposterior approach, in which the decision maker provides the prior distribution for the posterior probability.     

Technology profiles and export marketing strategies

This paper defines four different profiles which reflect the nature and level of a firm's technological involvement in exporting and foreign sales. It is also possible to characterize a firm's export marketing strategy along a reactive-proactive continuum. Technology profiles and marketing strategies are then linked together to suggest the optimal approach to developing overseas markets for a given type of firm. A number of essential requirements for successful export marketing are also described. It is suggested that success requires a combination of innovation, adaptation, and an appropriately selected marketing strategy.     

The relationship of strategic planning to financial performance

The relationship between financial performance and characteristics of corporate planning systems was investigated/Planning systems that combined an external focus with a long-term perspective were found to be associated with superior 10-year total return to stockholders. A lagged relationship between such systems and 4-year average annual returns to investors also was identified.     

Vested Interests Oppose Consumers

Earlier attempts to overhaul the funding of education foundered in the face opposition from vested interests. Lawrence Norcross, Headmaster of Highbury Grove School in North London, warns that the educators will themselves require education if change is to be effective.