Deutschland haftet — aber warum umsonst?

State guarantees have been proven instruments of economic policy in Germany for decades. Since the beginning of the global financial crisis, the sum of contractual, statutory and implied guarantees reached nearly 6 trillion euros. For the German government, the outstanding guarantees become ever riskier as the huge amounts of liability for banks and instable euro-states grows. Therefore it is suggested to require risk-based guarantee fees wherever possible. With the exception of Greece, most of the indebted countries and financial institutions certainly would be able to pay risk-orientated guarantee fees to avoid being cut off from capital markets. A European debt agency which earns money by giving guarantees would enhance the acceptance of the euro stabilization policy in the donor countries.     

Are Earnings Forecasts Informed by Proxy Statement Compensation Disclosures?

We investigate the extent to which market participants use compensation payouts released in the DEF 14A proxy statement (DEF14A) to assess future firm performance by examining sell-side analysts' earnings forecasts. Consistent with prior work, we confirm that CEO compensation unexplained by current observable economic factors is positively associated with future firm performance. We find that both the likelihood that analysts revise their forecasts following release of the DEF14A and the magnitude and direction of analysts' forecast revisions are positively associated with unexplained CEO compensation. These associations are stronger after the SEC required additional compensation-related disclosures in late 2006 but lower if the firm has weak corporate governance or more precise other information. Analysts' reactions are not complete, however. Analysts' forecast errors measured months after the DEF14A release are associated with past unexplained compensation, especially in the pre-2006 period and for analysts who do not revise at the DEF14A release. Taken together, our results suggest that compensation payouts released in the DEF14A contain useful forward-looking information that is recognized by at least some sophisticated market participants and that the increased disclosure regulations assisted market participants in incorporating this information.     

Workfare: Eine wirksame Alternative zum Kombilohn

Die hohe Arbeitslosigkeit von Geringqualifizierten ist Gegenstand zahlreicher Vorschl?gen zur L?sung dieses Problems. Worauf beziehen sich die Vorschl?ge im Einzelnen? Welche Besch?ftigungs- und Einkommenseffekte sind mit ihnen verbunden? Wie schneidet das Workfare-Modell im Vergleich dazu ab? Dr. Hilmar Schneider, 49, ist Direktor für Arbeitsmarktpolitik am Institut zur Zukunft der Arbeit in Bonn; Holger Bonin, 38, Dipl.-Volkswirt, ist dort wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter.     

Empirical analysis of the illiquidity premia of German real estate securities

Financial Markets and Portfolio Management - In this study, we analyze illiquidity premia and their effect on the expected returns of German real estate securities. To this end, we use a unique...     

Another pragmatic loss reserving method or Bornhuetter-Ferguson revisited

Abstract

The efficiency of an approximate credibility method for predicting outstanding claims in reinsurance, is analysed. The advantage of the approximate method is, that it does not require exact knowledge of the model's second order moments.     

Eine Lanze für die Einheit von Wirtschafts- und Finanzpolitik

Seit langem strebt die Finanzpolitik das Ziel eines ausgeglichenen Haushalts an. Ist dies jeweils mit den übrigen gesamtwirtschaftlichen Zielen vereinbar? Hat es in Deutschland in der Vergangenheit eine Makropolitik aus einem Guss gegeben? Wie sollte eine solche verzahnte Finanzpolitik aussehen? Dr. Walther Otremba, 56, ist Staatssekret?r im Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Technologie. Der Beitrag gibt die pers?nliche Auffassung des Autors wieder.