The Macroeconomic Effects of Shocks to Large Banks’ Capital

We propose a simple approach to quantifying the macroeconomic effects of shocks to large banks’ leverage. We first estimate a standard dynamic model of leverage targeting at the bank level and use it to derive an aggregate measure of the economic capital buffer of large US bank holding corporations. We then evaluate the response of key macro variables to a shock to this aggregate bank capital buffer using standard monetary VAR models. We find that shocks to the capital of large US banks explain a substantial share of the variance of credit to firms and real activity.     

Bounds analysis of competing risks: a non-parametric evaluation of the effect of unemployment benefits on migration

By reexamining the effect of unemployment benefits on reemployment probabilities we make two contributions to the literature: first, we estimate separate effects for reemployment in the local or a distant region. Second, we address the problem of incomplete duration within a competing risks model. Our results confirm that missing data problems at first preclude any meaningful result even though we have access to daily individual data on 50 % of the male workforce in Germany. When we impose additional assumptions, we obtain evidence that the treatment effect depends on the household context, the treatment intensity and the destination state.     

The evolution of morality and the end of economic man

1871 saw the publication of two major treatises in economics, with self-seeking economic man at their center. In the same year Darwin published The Descent of Man, which emphasized sympathy and cooperation as well as self-interest, and contained a powerful argument that morality has evolved in humans by natural selection. Essentially this stance is supported by modern research. This paper considers the nature of morality and how it has evolved. It reconciles Darwin’s notion that a developed morality requires language and deliberation (and is thus unique to humans), with his other view that moral feelings have a long-evolved and biologically-inherited basis. The social role of morality and its difference with altruism is illustrated by an agent-based simulation. The fact that humans combine both moral and selfish dispositions has major implications for the social sciences and obliges us to abandon the pre-eminent notion of selfish economic man. Economic policy must take account of our moral nature.     

OVERBIDDING AND HETEROGENEOUS BEHAVIOR IN CONTEST EXPERIMENTS: A COMMENT ON THE ENDOWMENT EFFECT

We revisit the meta-analysis of Sheremeta on overbidding in contest experiments and focus on the effect of endowment on overbidding. Sheremeta assumes, and finds evidence of, an increasing linear relationship between endowment and overbidding, Quantal Response Equilibrium (QRE) predicts an increasing concave relationship, while Baik and colleagues find an inverted U-shaped relationship in their analysis of a single experiment. We use the same data as in Sheremeta, but employ a different econometric model which leads to support for both QRE and the inverted U-shaped relationship. Following Baik and colleagues, we posit that the inverted-U relationship may be interpreted in terms of a wealth effect.     

Optimality results on orthogonal arrays plus <Emphasis Type="Italic">p</Emphasis> runs for <Emphasis Type="Italic">s</Emphasis><Superscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">m</Emphasis></Superscript> factorial experiments

The optimality of designs obtained by adding p runs to an orthogonal array is studied for experiments involving m factors each at s levels. The optimality criterion used here, is the Type 1 criterion due to Cheng (1978) which is an extension of Kiefer (1975) universal optimality criterion. Unlike what happens with orthogonal array plus one run designs, the behavior of designs obtained via augmentation of an orthogonal array by p runs depends on the particular runs added.     

Fitting room or selling room? Millennial female consumers’ dressing room experiences

As retail experiences have become more important to the modern consumer, the store environment has taken on greater significance. The store environment is especially of great significance to the millennial consumer. These consumers tend to spend more time in the fashion retail store, while their expenditure on fashion items increases on a yearly basis. The dressing room must be seen as the clothing retailer's selling room – the place where the retail environment plays an immense role with regard to a consumer's cognitions, emotions and purchasing behaviour. The purpose of this study was to explore and describe young millennial clothing consumers' Functional, aesthetic, emotional and symbolic dressing room experiences. A qualitative research strategy was followed. Two unstructured interviews were held with 15 participants. Participants had to take photos of retailers' dressing rooms before the second interview. A photo‐elicitation technique was employed during the second interview. Findings revealed that participants had specific expectations with regard to the functionality and aesthetics of the dressing room, as well as with regard to the symbolic messages and the emotions that they expected to experience. If the dressing room did not meet their expectations they got disappointed, experienced negative emotions and thoughts and the need to leave the dressing room. The behavioural response of avoidance strongly came to the forth. Findings of this research point to the importance of the dressing room as part of the retail experience and have implications for consumer specialists and retailers.     

Helping behavior in a virtual crisis situation: effects of safety awareness and crisis communication

Incident evaluations show that bystanders tend to help: they do not wait for professionals to arrive, but act as required by the situation at hand. In the present study, we investigated how safety awareness (induced before an accident happened) and providing a course of action by emergency services affect helping behavior after witnessing a virtual accident with two victims. The main task of the participants was to arrive at a job interview in time. Safety awareness was manipulated by the specific organization they went to: either promoting safe traffic or healthy living. The results show that all participants were inclined to help. Participants who were primed towards safe traffic more often called the emergency number, but talked to the victim less often. Participants who had received specific courses of action moved the victim less often. In all, the results clearly indicate the value of effective risk communication (before an event occurs) and crisis communication (after an event has occurred), as both types of information improve the quality of actual helping behavior at the scene.     

Rentenpaket: die Bundesregierung auf Irrwegen

In the summer of 2014 Germany will witness the most substantial expansion of pension expenditures since the 1950s. Yet, while this reform package was motivated mainly by the dismal prospect of rising old age poverty rates, it does little to alleviate this problem. On the contrary, its two central elements, an expansion of the pension claims of mothers whose children were born before 1992, and access to early retirement at age 63 for workers with a long insurance history, tend to benefit rather privileged groups of the insured. These measures endanger the sustainability of the German pension system and will necessitate future generations to work even longer than would have been the case otherwise.     

Nach der Wahl: Was sind die wichtigsten wirtschaftspolitischen Herausforderungen?

Even though Germany’s economy is currently going strong, the country still faces enormous challenges if it wants to maintain and increase this prosperity. The new government should take this opportunity to set the course for the future by encouraging the digitalisation of the economy and the society as well as by ensuring that the ongoing energy transition is sustainable and efficient. Other challenges include the adverse effects of globalisation on parts of society and the uneven distribution of income and wealth. But the actual magnitude of the government’s room to manoeuver is up for debate. The new government’s fiscal space might be more limited than it seems, since an automatic adjustment of the income tax to inflation and growth is required to end the bracket creep. Given that transfer programmes are being phased out, the federal income tax surcharge to finance German unification also needs to be abolished. Further budget pressure stems from the pension system and from demands by state and local as well as European governments. The new German government should use the next governing period to initiate fundamental reforms of economic and fiscal policy that will provide adequate answers to long-run challenges.     

Residents’ perceptions of the 2014 Sochi Olympic Games

This study examines the perceptions of local residents prior to the 2014 Sochi Olympic and Paralympic Games. A survey conducted amongst residents, 5 months prior to the Games opening, reveals a lower level of support for the Games during the preparation period compared to other Olympic host cities. Socio-demographic data about the residents help explain the varying attitudes towards the Games that were identified. The conclusions suggest that Sochi residents’ perceptions have been largely influenced by their thoughts regarding potential economic and socio-cultural impacts, whether positive or negative. When these opinions are analysed further, three main considerations were found: (1) impacts on urban development and quality of residential life; (2) positive impacts on tourism and the destination’s economy and (3) negative results of hosting the Games. The study also finds, using structural equation modelling, that residents of Sochi, who could receive some benefit from the Games, were involved in the decision-making process or had more information about the upcoming Games, demonstrated more positive attitudes towards hosting the Olympics.