Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Long- and Short-Term Determinants

This article focuses on the determinants of the large portfolioflows from the United States to Latin American and Asian countriesduring 1988–92. Cointegration techniques reveal that bothdomestic and global factors explain bond and equity flows todeveloping countries and represent significant long-run determinantsof portfolio flows. The article also investigates the dynamicsof portfolio flows by estimating seemingly unrelated error-correctionmodels. Global and country-specific factors are equally importantin determining the long-run movements in equity flows for bothAsian and Latin American countries, while global factors aremuch more important than domestic factors in explaining thedynamics of bond flows. U.S. interest rates are a particularlyimportant determinant of the short-run dynamics of portfolio,especially bond, flows to developing countries.     

Explaining Insurance Policy Provisions via Adverse Selection

In this article, we show that common insurance policy provisions—namely, deductibles, coinsurance, and maximum limits–can arise as a result of adverse selection in a competitive insurance market. Research on adverse selection typically builds on the assumption that different risk types suffer the same size loss and differ only in their probability of loss. In this study, we allow the severity of the insurance loss to be random and, thus, generalize the results of Rothschild and Stiglitz [1976] and Wilson [1977]. We characterize the separating equilibrium contracts in a Rothschild-Stiglitz competitive market. By further assuming a Wilson competitive market, we show that an anticipatory equilibrium might be achieved by pooling, and we characterize the optimal pooling contract.     

Ethics as an integrating force in management

Ethics will not become part of the management decision-making process until it ceases to be viewed as an add-on; first you decide, then you assess the decision ethically. This essay focuses on one ethical concept, the good or the valuable, and shows how to incorporate it in an ethically and economically effective decision process. We focus on this concept because it uncovers a key fault in strategic thinking and generates questions central to any complex decision.The concept of the valuable is used to distinguish goals and purposes. A goal is a more or less specific target toward which one aims. A purpose is a way of being or functioning viewed as valuable in itself.Purposes make values operational. We look at values through a set of questions derived from the concept of the valuable. One question probes the range of individuals relevant to a decision. Participatory and dialectical decision approaches are critiqued. A second question probes the standards of rationality implicit in management decisions.We conclude by responding to two objections. The first is that justice in decision-making is insufficiently considered. The second is that there is little reason to think that the proposals made here would work if implemented. Mark Pastin is Director of the Center for Private and Public Sector Ethics and Professor of Philosophy, Business, and Public Affairs at Arizona State University. He was formerly Associate Professor of Philosophy, Indiana University, and had visiting appointments at Wayne State University, the University of Michigan, Harvard University, and the University of Maryland. He has been a National Endowment for the Humanities Fellow and Research Fellow of the Center for Metropolitan Research of John Hopkins University. His most important publications are: Strategic Planning for Science, The Research System in the 1980s, ed. by John Logsdon (Franklin Institute Press, 1982), Ethics and the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, Business Horizons (December 1980), The Multi-Perspectival Theory of Knowlegde, Midwest Studies in Philosophy: Volume V (University of Minnesota Press, 1980), and Meaning and Perception, Journal of Philosophy (October 1976).This began as a joint project with H. J. Zoffer of the University of Pittsburgh. We both were promoting the idea of integrating ethics in management decision-making, but were embarrassed that we had little to say about how to proceed. So we picked the ethical concept of the good and set to work. This final product is my responsibility, but it certainly profited from Zoffer's efforts. This paper was presented at the 16th Conference on Value Inquiry, entitled: Ethics and the Market Place: An Exercise in Bridge-Building or On the Slopes of the Interface.     

Ethics,public policy,and managing advanced technologies: The case of electronic surveillance

A vigorous debate has developed surrounding electronic surveillance in the workplace. This controversial practice is one element of the more general issues of employee dignity and management control, revolving around the use of polygraph and drug testing, integrity exams, and the like. Managers, under pressure from competitors, are making greater use of technologically advanced employee monitoring methods because they are available, and hold the promise of productivity improvement. In this paper, the context of electronic surveillance is described and analyzed from the perspectives of ethics, public policy, and managerial behavior.The future creeps in on small feet ... We do not awaken suddenly to a brave new world. (Zuboff, 1990) Edward J. Ottensmeyer is Assistant Professor of Management at Clark University's Graduate School of Management, where he conducts research in competitive strategy, technology management, and social issues. His research has been published in journals such as Academy of Management Review, Policy Studies Journal, Growth & Change, and Policy Studies Review, and in edited volumes, the most recent of which is Strategic Management in High Technology Firms from JAI Press. He holds MBA and Ph.D. degrees in Management from Indiana University. Mark A. Heroux is a software engineer at the Locus Computing Corporation, in Burlington, Massachusetts. His research interests include high-level security protocols in large-scale computer networks, and effectiveness in high technogy firms. He holds an undergraduate degree in Computer Science from Anna Maria College and an MBA from Clark University.     

Measurement Bias in the HICP: What do we know and What do we need to know?

Abstract. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is the primary measure of inflation in the euro area, and plays a central role in the policy deliberations of the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB defines its Treaty mandate of price stability as '… a year‐on‐year increase in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the euro area of below 2%[…] to be maintained over the medium term.' Among the rationales given for defining price stability as prevailing at some positive measured inflation rate is the possibility that the HICP as published incorporates measurement errors of one sort or another that may cause it to systematically overstate the true rate of inflation in the euro area. This paper reviews what currently is known about the scope of measurement error in the HICP. We conclude that given the vague conceptual framework of the HICP, the scant research on price measurement issues in the EU and the ongoing improvements in the HICP, there is very little scientific basis at this time for a point (or even an interval) estimate of a positive bias in the HICP.     

Re-exploring the relationship between flexibility and the external environment

The organizational structure literature has long posited that increases in uncertainty should lead to organic (adaptable) structures [T. Burnes, G.M. Stalker, The Management of Innovation, Tavistock Publications, London, 1961]. Similarly, the operations management literature has focused on the importance of flexibility as a competitive weapon [e.g., [De Meyer et al., 1989] Strategic Manage. J. 10 (1989) 135], and as a response to environmental uncertainty [Manage. Sci. 33 (1987) 509; Manage. Sci. 39 (1993) 395]. However, our recent attempts to empirically validate a relationship between environmental uncertainty and operational flexibility in manufacturing plants have failed to show a significant relationship [J. Operations Manage. 3 (1999) 307]. The present research attempts to rectify these contradictory findings by replicating and extending the works of [Manage. Sci. 33 (1987) 509] as well as [J. Operations Manage. 3 (1999) 307]. The results find no support for the proposition that firms that respond to increased uncertainty with increased flexibility will experience increased performance.     

The Fable of the Keiretsu

Central to so many accounts of post-war Japan, the keiretsu corporate groups lacked economic substance from the start. Conceived by Marxists committed to locating "domination" by "monopoly capital," they found an early audience among western scholars searching for evidence of culture-specific group behavior in Japan. By the 1990s, they had moved into mainstream economic studies, and keiretsu dummies appeared in virtually all econometric regressions of Japanese industrial or financial structure. Yet the keiretsu began as a figment of the academic imagination, and they remain that today. Regardless of the keiretsu definition used, cross-shareholdings within the "groups" were trivial, even during the years when keiretsu ties were supposedly strongest. Neither does membership proxy for "main bank" ties. Econometric studies basing "keiretsu dummies" on the available rosters produce predictably haphazard and unstable results. In the end, the only reliably robust results are the artifacts of the sample biases created by the definitions themselves.     

Regulatory Compliance with Costly and Uncertain Litigation

Harrington (1988) and more recent papers by Heyes and Rickman (1999), Livernois and McKenna (1999), and Heyes (1996) have attempted to explain how a relatively large fraction of firms are thought to be in compliance with environmental regulations despite the fact that expected penalties for these violations are deemed rather low. This paper offers an alternative explanation for the interesting paradox by incorporating costly and uncertain litigation.     

Mutually Destructive Bidding: The FCC Auction Design Problem

In general, synergies across license valuations complicate the auction design process. Theory suggests that a simple (i.e., non-combinatorial) auction will have difficulty in assigning licenses efficiently in such an environment. This difficulty increases with increases in fitting complexity. In some environments, bidding may become mutually destructive. Experiments indicate that a properly designed combinatorial auction is superior to a simple auction in terms of economic efficiency and revenue generation in bidding environments with a low amount of fitting complexity. Concerns that a combinatorial auction will cause a threshold problem are not borne out when bidders for small packages can communicate.