A social forecast revisited

In 1971, the authors produced a 30-year forecast of leisure in the UK. In 2001 they obtained survey data for comparison with the forecasts. The paper presents the original forecasts and describes the methods used to produce them, assesses their accuracy in the light of the survey data, and concludes with some reflections on the underlying forecasting methodology and on changes in leisure patterns.     

The co‐evolution of capabilities and transaction costs: explaining the institutional structure of production

This paper proposes that transaction costs and capabilities are fundamentally intertwined in the determination of vertical scope, and identifies the key mechanisms of their co‐evolution. Specifically, we argue that capability differences are a necessary condition for vertical specialization; and that transaction cost reductions only lead to specialization when capabilities along the value chain are heterogeneous. Furthermore, we argue that there are four evolutionary mechanisms that shape vertical scope over time. First, the selection process, itself driven by capability differences, dynamically shapes vertical scope; second, transaction costs are endogenously changed by firms that try to reshape the transactional environment to increase their profit and market share; third, changes in vertical scope affect the nature of the capability development process, i.e., the way in which firms improve their operations over time; and finally, the changes in the capability development process reshape the capability pool in the industry, changing the roster of qualified participants. These dynamics of capability and transaction cost co‐evolution are illustrated through two contrasting examples: the mortgage banking industry in the United States, which shows the shift from integrated to disintegrated production; and the Swiss watch‐manufacturing industry, which went from disintegration to integration. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Determinants of Geographic Differentials in the Voter Participation Rate

Voter participation rates vary widely across the 50 states. This empirical study seeks, within the context of a broadened version of the ‘rational voter model,’ to identify determinants of this interstate variation. Using the 2004 general election as the study period, it is found that the voter participation rate in a state is positively related to the percent of the state's adult population with at least a high school education, the state's unemployment rate, the percent of the state's population age 65 and older, and the female labor force participation rate in the state. In addition, it is found that voter turnout in a state is negatively related to the state's median family income and the percentage of its population that is Hispanic.     

Universities,Localities and Regional Development: The Emergence of the ‘Mode 2’ University?

There has long been a tension between the roles of the university in servicing the needs of sub‐national economies and civil societies, those of the national state and those of learning and the pursuit of knowledge in an abstract sense. The position in liberal democracies through much of the twentieth century can be accurately characterized by a significant degree of separation and segregation between the university, the state and the market. Recently, however, it has been posited that the balance is shifting away from relative autonomy towards a new ‘mode of knowledge production’ in which the growing engagement of universities with their regions and localities is an important aspect. The first part of this article explores the knowledge economy rhetorics which have come to dominate public policy rationales in many liberal democracies and interrelationships with questions of territory and scale. Second, the implications for universities are considered as they are confronted by a number of challenges and choices in navigating the waters of increasing societal expectations. Finally, the article highlights key questions that emerge from our preliminary overview of these issues within a wider research agenda around universities, the knowledge economy and regional development. Depuis longtemps, une tension existant entre les rôles qu'a l'université dans la satisfaction des besoins des économies sub‐nationales et des sociétés civiles, de ceux de l'État ou de ceux de l'enseignement, et la quête du savoir au sens abstrait du terme. Pendant une bonne partie du vingtième siècle, dans les démocraties libérales, la situation a pu se définir par un degré très net de séparation entre université, État et marché. Toutefois, récemment, certains ont suggéré que l'équilibre se décalait, d'une autonomie relative vers un nouveau ‘mode de production du savoir’ dans lequel l'intervention croissante des universités vis‐à‐vis de leur région et sites locaux constitue un aspect important. La première partie de l'article explore le discours de l'économie du savoir, lequel a envahi la logique de la politique publique dans nombre de démocraties libérales, ainsi que les inter‐relations avec les questions de territoire et d'échelle. La deuxième partie s'intéresse aux implications pour les universités, celles‐ci étant confrontées à de multiples défis et choix en parcourant l'océan des attentes sociétales croissantes. Pour finir, sont présentées les questions‐clés qui émergent de l'étude préalable de ces problèmes effectuée dans le cadre d'un programme de recherches plus vaste autour des universités, de l'économie du savoir et du développement régional.     

A microeconometric evaluation of rehabilitation of long‐term sickness in Sweden

In this study the effects of various types of rehabilitation programmes on labour market outcomes are estimated. A main feature of this study is that it jointly evaluates multiple treatments by nonparametric matching estimators. The study is based on a large sample of persons in western Sweden who are long‐term sick and could participate in rehabilitation programmes. Our results suggest that workplace training is superior to the other rehabilitation programmes with respect to labour market outcomes, but compared to non‐participation no positive effects are found. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sources of Durable Competitive Advantage in New Products

In this article, Michael Lawless and Robert Fisher propose a conceptual framework for analyzing durable sources of competitive advantage for new products. They assess various components of new product introduction strategies in terms of their degrees of competitive "imitability" (i.e., the ease with which competitors can imitate). The less imitable the component, the more durable the profits it generates. The authors identify seven strategic components based on bodies of research in strategy and promotion, distribution and firm characteristics. By selectively managing these components, an innovating firm can affect a new product's imitability and the duration of returns. Using a "resource mobility" perspective, the authors develop propositions that should lead to a more systematic focus on long-term profits in new product introductions.