Boom–Bust Cycles and the Forecasting Performance of Linear and Non-Linear Models of House Prices

The tremendous rise in house prices over the last decade has been both a national and a global phenomenon. The growth of secondary mortgage holdings and the increased impact of house prices on consumption and other components of economic activity imply ever-greater importance for accurate forecasts of home price changes. Given the boom–bust nature of housing markets, nonlinear techniques seem intuitively very well suited to forecasting prices, and better, for volatile markets, than linear models which impose symmetry of adjustment in both rising and falling price periods. Accordingly, Crawford and Fratantoni (Real Estate Economics 31:223–243, 2003) apply a Markov-switching model to U.S. home prices, and compare the performance with autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) models. While the switching model shows great promise with excellent in-sample fit, its out-of-sample forecasts are generally inferior to more standard forecasting techniques. Since these results were published, some researchers have discovered that the Markov-switching model is particularly ill-suited for forecasting. We thus consider other non-linear models besides the Markov switching, and after evaluating alternatives, employ the generalized autoregressive (GAR) model. We find the GAR does a better job at out-of-sample forecasting than ARMA and GARCH models in many cases, especially in those markets traditionally associated with high home-price volatility.     

External Auditor Reassessment of Client Business Risk Following the Issuance of a Comment Letter by the SEC

Abstract

Following Arthur Andersen's conviction for obstructing justice, auditors faced a one-time significant change in their regulatory environment because it was clear that (i) major audit partnerships could be closed and (ii) post Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX), regulators would take a far more attentive (aggressive) role. In response auditors considered whether the pricing of audits should be revised to take account of the increased risk of regulatory intervention and litigation. Obviously such re-pricing would need to be targeted at those firms for which the risks were greatest. One early warning signal of such events occurring is the issuance by the Security Exchange Commission (SEC) of a Comment Letter (CL). We investigate whether there is any evidence that if a client receives a CL this is used to re-price audit services. Specifically, we investigate whether issuance resulted in upward pressure on audit fees, and whether this effect was simply transient around the issuance period or alternatively persisted some years into the future. This research finds that after a client receives a CL, auditors adjust audit fees upwards in the period in which the CL is received. In addition it is shown that for subsequent periods in which the auditor does not spend time assisting the client respond to a specific CL, an initial rise in audit fee persists. This is consistent with the hypothesis that auditors reassess the reputation and litigation risk of the client on the basis of the SEC issuance of a Comment Letter.     

Socially Responsible Investment and Corporate Social and Environmental Reporting in the UK: An Exploratory Study

This exploratory study examines the relations between corporate social and environmental reporting (CSR) and the socially responsible investment (SRI) sector. The evidence presented, based upon the informed opinions of 14 experts within the SRI field, suggests that the field of CSR is on the verge of a major change towards a substantial and sustained improvement in quality and quantity. The SRI sector is undergoing radical changes. A wider social movement has already led to exponential growth, as more people become concerned with how their money is invested. Moreover, the Pensions Review has widened this concern to institutional investment. Representing 35% of the stock market, the potential impact of this regulation is anticipated to be significant. One possible outcome could be a marked increase in the size and power of the SRI sector, improving their ability to successfully influence corporate behaviour. Success is likely to increase further as corporations begin to see a business case, as well as, or as opposed to a moral case, for acting in a more responsible manner. The Turnbull report on the combined codes of corporate governance is a significant factor influencing this. For the first time, reputational risk, and hence how companies manage environmental, ethical and social reputations, is on the core corporate governance agenda. A more powerful outcome would be an increased interest from mainstream fund managers in SRI modes of corporate assessment. Preliminary evidence suggests that this will create a greater demand for CSR, and greater legitimacy of CSR within the accounting orthodoxy.     

A Comparison of Bond Ratings from Moody's S&P and Fitch IBCA

Previous research has found that the bond market values the ratings of Moody's and Standard & Poor's. This paper extends earlier research by comparing the ratings of Moody's, Standard and Poor's, and Fitch IBCA. The authors examine a very large database with monthly observations of bonds and bond ratings over a five‐year time period. The analysis focuses on comparing rating levels, rating changes, and the impact of ratings on bond yields. The results show that firms with publicly available Fitch IBCA ratings have higher ratings from Moody's and S&P than firms without Fitch IBCA ratings. The typical firm releasing a Fitch IBCA rating has a lower yield (controlling for Moody's and S&P rating), a more stable rating, and is more likely to receive an upgrade. For split‐rated bonds (Moody's vs. S&P), Fitch IBCA serves as a tiebreaker. This evidence is consistent with the bond market valuing the ratings of all three raters—Moody's, Standard & Poor's, and Fitch IBCA.     

SMEs and the environment: evaluating dissemination routes and handholding levels

The Better Business Pack (BBP), a toolkit intended to enable SMEs to develop plans and activities that would lead to environmental and financial benefits, is evaluated. It is found that in spite of high user evaluation of the toolkit in terms of design, user‐friendliness, being up to date and recognition that little effort was required before returns could be achieved, actual financial and environmental achievements were patchy. The BBP was designed as a stand‐alone package that would stimulate SMEs to embark on this path without further support. However, the nature of the dissemination route and the presence of ‘handholding’ support significantly affected success levels. Furthermore the nature of this support was crucial. The most effective support came from pre‐existing networks and opportunities to learn from fellow users, rather than traditional consultancy and other external agency support. Awards for best practice were also found to be of importance. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

The Challenges Faced by Reporting Entities on Their Transition to International Financial Reporting Standards: A Qualitative Study

Abstract

This study explores the challenges of implementing International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) at the organisational level. Based on interviews with experts with aggregated experience relating to the transition projects of over 170 reporting entities, this paper highlights the main challenges in delivering a successful implementation of IFRS. The findings show that the problems faced in implementation include lack of education and training, securing executive-level support, identifying and responding to the wider business-related implications of the transition, and issues with capturing the necessary information for reporting under IFRS.This paper complements the existing literature and offers a qualitative alternative to considering the transition to IFRS, offering insight into the organisational context of IFRS implementation. These insights are useful not only from a historic perspective, but also for organisations and regulators in the many jurisdictions where IFRS is permitted but not required, where more reporting entities will voluntarily move to IFRS-based reporting in the future. More broadly, they are also applicable to the challenges faced in implementing new and significantly revised IFRSs.     

Teaching Chain-Weight Real GDP Measures

In 1996, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) changed the method used to calculate measures of real GDP from a Laspeyres or Paasche index to a Fisher ideal index, also called a chain-weight index. Even though this is a significant change in approach and has resulted in extensive revisions of reported statistics, many authors of intermediate-level textbooks treat this topic casually, if at all. In this article, the author presents two applications in which this topic can be explored more thoroughly, with the help of spreadsheet software. One exercise introduces the concept of the chain-weight index by comparing it to Laspeyres, Paasche, and ideal indexes with the use of utility analysis. The second exercise is a step-by-step process to calculate chain-weight index statistics.