Social security for young people amidst high poverty and unemployment: Some policy options for South Africa

South African youth experience extremely high levels of unemployment and poverty. Currently there is no social assistance for low-income young adults in South Africa unless they are disabled. Interventions are needed that can achieve widespread poverty alleviation, as well as help facilitate economic participation to improve lifelong earnings. In this article, six examples of social security policy options are considered, including five grants ranging from an unconditional non-means-tested grant for young people to a conditional grant for young people in training or education, plus an ‘Opportunities voucher’ that is administered through the social security system but paid out to organisations offering youth education or work opportunities. Using a tax and benefit microsimulation model to simulate the five grants, we estimate the potential numbers reached and cost, as well as the impact of these six options on poverty.     

Works Councils,Collective Bargaining,and Apprenticeship Training – Evidence From German Firms

In this paper, we investigate the effects of works councils on apprenticeship training in Germany. The German law attributes works councils substantial information and co‐determination rights to training‐related issues. Thus, works councils may also have an impact on the cost‐benefit relation of workplace training. Using detailed firm‐level data containing information on the costs and benefits of apprenticeship training, we find that firms with works councils make a significantly higher net investment in training compared to firms without such an institution. We also find that the fraction of former trainees still employed with the same firm 5 years after training is significantly higher in the presence of works councils, thus enabling firms to recoup training investments over a longer time horizon. Furthermore, all works council effects are much more pronounced for firms covered by collective bargaining agreements.     

How Do Rural Households Cope with Economic Shocks? Insights from Global Data using Hierarchical Analysis

Unanticipated events can cause considerable economic hardship for poor rural households. Some types of negative shocks, for example weather‐related agricultural losses and vector‐borne diseases, are expected to occur more frequently as a result of climate change. In this paper we measure the role of household‐ and location‐specific characteristics in conditioning behavioural responses to a wide range of idiosyncratic and covariate shocks. We use data from 8,000 rural households in 25 developing countries, compiled in the global database of the Poverty Environment Network. We employ a hierarchical multinomial logit model to identify the importance of characteristics observed at different levels of aggregation on a set of strategies aimed at coping with economic shocks. Results indicate that in response to idiosyncratic shocks, households tend to deplete financial and durable assets, whereas covariate and thus often climate‐related shocks predominantly result in reduced consumption. Households in sites characterised by high asset wealth tend to cope with shocks in a more proactive way than those in sites with average or below average asset wealth, but the role of asset types in conditioning shock responses varies across regions. Our findings have implications for rural development and climate change adaptation strategies.     

A multi-agent model of a low income economy: simulating the distributional effects of natural disasters

This paper develops an agent-based model of a stylized low income region in order to study the impact of natural disasters on population displacement, income, prices, and consumption with a focus on distributions and coping strategies of low income groups. Key features of the model include the integration of decentralized markets into a full economy in a spatially explicit way and the analysis of short-run adjustment processes. The model is calibrated to a low income region of rural agrarian Pakistan that faced severe floods in 2010. Dynamic adaptation by agents in response to falling income includes migrating and running down savings. Despite these consumption smoothing strategies, some low income groups are vulnerable to starvation. The paper showcases two hypothetical policy scenarios, a cash and a food transfer program, and tracks their effects on the welfare of low income groups in the economy.     

Making EU Trade Agreements Work: The Role of Rules of Origin

A key element of the EU's free trade and preferential trade agreements is the extent to which they deliver improved market access and so contribute to the EU's foreign policy objectives towards developing countries and neighbouring countries in Europe, including the countries of the Balkans. Previous preferential trade schemes have been ineffective in delivering improved access to the EU market since only a small proportion of the available preferences have actually been utilised. The main reason for this is probably the very restrictive rules of origin that the EU imposes, coupled with the costs of proving consistency with these rules. If the EU wants the ‘Everything but Arms’ agreement and free trade agreements with countries in the Balkans to generate substantial improvements in access to the EU market for products from these countries then it will have to reconsider the current rules of origin and implement less restrictive rules backed up by a careful safeguards policy..     

Sovereign debt assistance and democratic decision-making

Organizational reforms stimulating democratic decision-making play a role in the economic effectiveness of concessional debt and debt relief. Effectiveness is defined as the increase in project approval produced by debt assistance. This claim is supported by a theoretic model illustrating the role of democratic decision-making in increasing lending as well as in determining the effectiveness of debt assistance. Using the framework of group decision-making in a fixed-size committee, we suggest a novel explanation to the advantage of conditioning debt assistance on organizational reforms that target the decision-making structure in organizations. The results imply that if the aid organization can affect the level of democratization in organizations, it can exploit its advantage and set the debt assistance that induces the maximal increase in project approval. We derive conditions under which organizational reforms that impose various forms of democratic norms in decision-making are important for increasing the effectiveness of debt assistance. We also point to the case where replacing an autocratic decision maker can cause debt assistance effectiveness to decline.