Evaluation of USDA Interval Forecasts of Corn and Soybean Prices

USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) price forecasts are published as an interval, but are typically analyzed as point estimates. Thus, all information about uncertainty imbedded in the forecast is ignored. The purpose of this article is to evaluate the accuracy of WASDE corn and soybean price forecasts using methodology suitable for testing judgmental interval forecasts. Accuracy tests suggest that WASDE forecasts are not calibrated at the 95% confidence level for both commodities and generally not calibrated for corn, but calibrated for soybeans, at the implied confidence level elicited from the survey of forecast providers.     

Believing Facts in the Fog of War: Identity,Media and Hot Cognition in Ukraine’s 2014 Odesa Tragedy

ABSTRACT

How do people form beliefs about the factual content of major events when established geopolitical orders are violently challenged? Here, we address the tragic events of 2 May 2014, in Odesa, Ukraine. There, Euromaidan protest movement supporters and opponents clashed following Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the onset of the Donbas conflict, culminating in the worst civilian death toll the city had seen since World War II. Shortly after, we surveyed Ukraine’s population about who they thought had actually perpetrated the killings and relate people’s answers to alternative narratives (frames) that an original content analysis finds were available to Ukrainian citizens through different media. We find evidence, consistent with theories of hot cognition and motivated reasoning, that the Odesa violence triggered emotional responses linked to ethnic, regional, and partisan identity, which then activated attitudes associated with these identities that, in turn, led people to adopt very different (sometimes highly improbable) beliefs about who carried out the killings. Ethnic identity in particular is found to have strongly moderated the effects of television, with Ukrainian television greatly influencing Ukrainians but backfiring among Russians, and Russian television mainly impacting non-Ukrainians. Education and local information are found to reduce susceptibility to televised factual narratives.     

Employability and the psychological contract in European ICT sector SMEs

This article explores the employability of information and communication technology (ICT) professionals from the perspective of small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The first stage of analysis, based on over 100 interviews with managers of ICT supplier companies in seven European countries (Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland and the UK), showed most SMEs to have a generally ad hoc approach to managing the employability of their ICT professionals. Assessment and development plans were used primarily to keep skills current to business needs; however, the more developed northern European markets showed greater awareness of the ‘high commitment’ benefits of a more sophisticated approach towards career management (e.g. through mentoring or career planning). A second stage of analysis based only on UK interviews builds on this to propose a model of positive employer influence on psychological contracts through career and employability management practices.     

Volatility,growth and cycles

The paper investigates the factors affecting the equilibrium level of output in a panel of European countries. Output depends on factor inputs and on the technology and the efficiency with which those factors are used. Efficiency may be driven by international conditions and institutional changes such as the Single Market Programme in Europe. The technology indicators used in this study depend upon research and development and also include the level of labour efficiency which is indexed on skills data. The level of the capital stock depends upon the user cost of capital, which may depend upon risk and hence on the volatility of the economy. Recent literature suggests that real exchange rate volatility is important in determining investment and therefore has an impact on equilibrium output. A link of this form is uncovered for the European economies. If policy can reduce these volatilities then it can also raise equilibrium output.

New unit-consistent intermediate inequality indices

This paper introduces a class of intermediate inequality indices that is, at the same time, ray-invariant and unit-consistent. These measures allow us to make possible keeping some of the good properties of Krtscha’s (Models and measurement of welfare and inequality. Springer, Heidelberg, 1994) index while maintaining the “centrist” attitude no matter howmuch the income increases.By doing so, we approach the intermediate inequality concept suggested by Del Río and Ruiz-Castillo (Soc Choice Welfare 17:223–239, 2000) and generalize it in order to extend the range of income distributions that are comparable according to this ray-invariance criterion.     

Motivations to engage in last chance tourism in the Churchill Wildlife Management Area and Wapusk National Park: the role of place identity and nature relatedness

The threat that climate change impacts pose to rare and vulnerable destinations has given rise to a phenomenon known as last chance tourism. This travel behaviour involves tourists increasingly travelling to destinations they perceive to be critically threatened, while contributing to greenhouse gas emissions and climate change impacts in these very places. For last chance destinations to be managed effectively in the face of climate change, a clearer understanding of what drives this travel behaviour is needed. Drawing on the importance of place and nature to identity construction, this research uses a structural equation modelling approach to examine last chance tourism motivations in Churchill, Canada. Results provide evidence of a motivation to engage in a last chance experience. They also indicate that this motivation is related to a desire to share a connection to nature with similar individuals, and to become part of the local story. Beyond this, results show that visitors' sense of place identity and nature relatedness contribute significantly to their motivation to engage in last chance tourism. Findings from this research are important to the management of last chance destinations, including protected areas that are legislated to preserve significant natural and cultural features.     

Pioneers for Profit: St. Petersburg Entrepreneurs in Services

Russian private entrepreneurs in services are truly pioneering,because many services— especially trade, financial services,and most business and consumer services—are poorly developed.This article uses 1992 and 1993 survey data from St. Petersburgto assess the characteristics of these entrepreneurs, theirfirms, and the markets in which they deal. Evaluation of thefirms' performance establishes how well they are doing and providesinsight into the determinants of success. Their performancewas surprisingly good and can be attributed to several factors,including the existence of a substantial gap between the desiredand the actual levels of many services and the high level ofeducation and motivation of the entrepreneurs themselves. Policypriorities are to achieve macroeconomic stability, a transparentlegal framework and simplified regulations, a well-designedtax code, further privatization of real estate, and better accessto finance. Direct assistance programs would be useful in providinginformation, counseling, and financing to small and medium-sizefirms.     

Co-production: A viable consideration for developing nations

This paper presents the concept of co-production. Its potential and possible problems in dealing with international markets are explored. Models are used to illustrate the relationship of co-production with the life-cycle of products. The need for management awareness in the processes involved is also discussed.     

The Occupational Segregation of African American Women: Its Evolution from 1940 to 2010

Based on detailed occupation titles and making use of measures that do not require pair-wise comparisons, this paper shows that the occupational segregation of African American women declined dramatically in 1940–80, decreased slightly in 1980–2000, and remained stagnant in 2000–10. This paper quantifies the well-being losses that African American women derive from their occupational sorting. The reduction of segregation was indeed accompanied by well-being improvements, especially in the 1960s and 1970s. Regarding the role that education has played, this study highlights that it was only from 1990 onward that African American women with either some college or university degrees had lower segregation (as compared with their peers) than those with lower education. Nevertheless, the well-being loss that African American women with university degrees derived in 2010 for being segregated from their peers in education was not too different from that of African American women with lower education.     

Format effects in the understanding of motion from kinematic diagrams in engineering education

International Journal of Technology and Design Education - Understanding and constructing domain-specific external representations, such as kinematic diagrams, is an important goal of engineering...