FINANCIAL LIBERALISATION, CONSUMPTION AND WEALTH EFFECTS IN SEVEN OECD COUNTRIES

We estimate the impact of financial liberalisation on consumption in seven major industrial countries, and find a marked shift in behaviour, notably a decline in short‐run income elasticities and a rise in short‐run wealth and interest rate elasticities. A corollary is that consumption equations estimated over both pre‐ and post‐liberalisation regimes may be misleading, and either a form of testing as presented here or a shortening of the sample period may be appropriate for accurate forecasting and simulation.     

Planning in the Dark: Why Major Engineering Projects Fail to Achieve Key Goals

The arguments, analysis and observations in this paper are based on 10 years of research with partners in the European and US aerospace and defence industries. During this period, the authors were part of a team of researchers who were seeking to develop a new methodology and tool set for project management, particularly aimed at large aerospace projects. The research was motivated by the seemingly ubiquitous reality of project failure, with large engineering projects apparently always late and over budget. Here the authors focus on aerospace and defence, but the problems are generic across all branches of engineering. In their view, aerospace and defence have more excuses than most, because not only are the projects huge, but also they are globally distributed and highly complex. As work progressed, a fundamental conundrum emerged. Through discussions with project managers and assessment of the teams that were undertaking the projects, it became obvious that they were well educated, intelligent, highly motivated and very capable people. So why were so many projects going wrong? And it was not just aerospace and defence, as projects were failing in many different sectors and in numerous geographic locations. Obviously the problems were not to do with incompetence, as they were clearly so generic. As a result, the authors focused their analysis on factors inherent in the way all major projects are undertaken. The ultimate finding has been that the very technology available for managing projects today is inadequate. As argued within the paper, modern, complex projects cannot be planned and executed using 50-year-old project management tools. The paper tells the story of what is wrong with the current technology and how and why it needs to change. The authors are well aware that there are also cultural problems in project management, but many of these are exacerbated by the use of inadequate tools.     

Is More Information Always Better? An Experimental Study of Charitable Giving and Hurricane Katrina

We report results of an experiment designed to assess the impact of Hurricane Katrina on the pattern and level of charitable contributions of donors. The study includes an experimental measure of charitable giving and targets three charities: the American Red Cross, the Salvation Army, and Oxfam International. In the experiment subjects make allocation decisions from three endowments ($10, $20, and $50) and with four different matching subsidies (0%, 25%, 50%, and 100%), with the matching amount provided by the experimenter. Two locations (Texas and Minnesota) and two information conditions are used. Survey measures of sympathy, risk perceptions, and perceptions of Katrina victims are also collected. The probability and amount of giving are responsive to the experimental design parameters—the endowment and match. We find evidence of “Katrina overload” as those closest to the disaster respond negatively to Katrina-related priming information. Perceptions of the psychological attitudes of the victims of the disaster have a significant effect on the amount given.     

Contesting rural recreation: the battle over access to Windermere

Different forms of recreation are competing increasingly for space to operate, and arbitrating between these competing claims can be fraught with difficulties. This paper examines the recent conflict over attempts to impose a speed limit, and hence prevent power boating and associated activities, on Windermere in the English Lake District. The competing arguments, as presented to a public inquiry, are assessed in the light of the Inspector's verdict on these issues, and the political responses to the verdict. The case is likely to have a much wider significance in terms of land use planning policy in Britain, both in National Parks and rural areas more generally.     

Economic implications of proposed accounting for stock-based compensation

This article examines the market expectations of the proposed accounting changes for stock-based compensation in the exposure draft that preceded the Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 123. The exposure draft made recommendations that significantly differed from current practice. Affected firms expressed concern that the proposed changes would drastically reduce their reported earnings. This could lead to firms becoming less attractive to capital sources (resulting in higher costs of capital) and firms refraining from using stock options to attract talented managers and entrepreneurs. The market test shows that affected firms experienced negative security market prices contemporaneous with issuance of the exposure draft. Cross-sectional analyses indicate that the magnitude of price decline is associated with measures of high risk and less mature firms.     

Cointegration Analysis of Seasonal Time Series

This paper reviews various recent approaches to cointegration analysis of seasonal time series. In addition to the usual decisions concerning data transformations and univariate time series properties, it is necessary to decide how seasonal variation is included in the multivariate model and how standard cointegration methods should accordingly be modified. Seasonal cointegration and periodic cointegration methods are discussed, as are some of their recent refinements. An overview of further research topics is also provided.     

The potential impact of abolishing company tax in Ciskei

The purpose of this paper is to examine the likely effect of the abolition of company tax on the Ciskeian economy. After considering the case for and against a corporate tax exemption, the issues involved are analysed on two levels. Using aggregate data, drawn from available census data, we find that most firms seem likely either to prefer the existing package of industrial concessions to the tax holiday, or to be indifferent to either option. Similarly, a recent survey of manufacturing enterprises in Ciskei indicated that the majority would prefer the incentive package. Firms that might be attracted by the tax‐free option are likely to be relatively profitable, subsidiaries of multinational companies, and enjoying a higher turnover per worker than firms opting for the incentive package.