Hierarchies of ambiguous beliefs

We present a theory of interactive beliefs analogous to Mertens and Zamir [Formulation of Bayesian analysis for games with incomplete information, Int. J. Game Theory 14 (1985) 1-29] and Brandenburger and Dekel [Hierarchies of beliefs and common knowledge, J. Econ. Theory 59 (1993) 189-198] that allows for hierarchies of ambiguity. Each agent is allowed a compact set of beliefs at each level, rather than just a single belief as in the standard model. We propose appropriate definitions of coherency and common knowledge for our types. Common knowledge of coherency closes the model, in the sense that each type homeomorphically encodes a compact set of beliefs over the others’ types. This space universally embeds every implicit type space of ambiguous beliefs in a beliefs-preserving manner. An extension to ambiguous conditional probability systems [P. Battigalli, M. Siniscalchi, Hierarchies of conditional beliefs and interactive epistemology in dynamic games, J. Econ. Theory 88 (1999) 188-230] is presented. The standard universal type space and the universal space of compact continuous possibility structures are epistemically identified as subsets.     

Incentive effects in the demand for health care: a bivariate panel count data estimation

This paper contributes in three dimensions to the literature on health care demand. First, it features the first application of a bivariate random effects estimator in a count data setting, to permit the efficient estimation of this type of model with panel data. Second, it provides an innovative test of adverse selection and confirms that high‐risk individuals are more likely to acquire supplemental add‐on insurance. Third, the estimations yield that in accordance with the theory of moral hazard, we observe a much lower frequency of doctor visits among the self‐employed, and among mothers of small children. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Leverage and investment in diversified firms

Within diversified firms, the negative impact of leverage on investment is significantly greater for high q than for low q segments and significantly greater for non-core than for core segments. This differs substantially from focused firms and is consistent with the view that diversified firms allocate a disproportionate share of their debt service burden to their higher q and non-core segments. We also find that, among low-growth firms, the positive relation between leverage and firm value is significantly weaker in diversified firms than in focused firms. We conclude that the disciplinary benefits of debt are partially offset by the additional managerial discretion in allocating debt service that is provided by the diversified organizational structure.     

Customer churn analysis: Churn determinants and mediation effects of partial defection in the Korean mobile telecommunications service industry

Retaining customers is one of the most critical challenges in the maturing mobile telecommunications service industry. Using customer transaction and billing data, this study investigates determinants of customer churn in the Korean mobile telecommunications service market. Results indicate that call quality-related factors influence customer churn; however, customers participating in membership card programs are also more likely to churn, which raises questions about program effectiveness. Furthermore, heavy users also tend to churn. In order to analyze partial and total defection, this study defines changes in a customer's status from active use (using the service on a regular basis) to non-use (deciding not to use it temporarily without having churned yet) or suspended (being suspended by the service provider) as partial defection and from active use to churn as total defection. Thus, mediating effects of a customer's partial defection on the relationship between the churn determinants and total defection are analyzed and their implications are discussed. Results indicate that some churn determinants influence customer churn, either directly or indirectly through a customer's status change, or both; therefore, a customer's status change explains the relationship between churn determinants and the probability of churn.     

Consequences of further opening of the Korean dairy market

This paper develops a simulation of Korean dairy policy that is tailored to the data, institutions, and policies in South Korea. It compares potential effects of changes in trade and domestic policy to baseline projections to 2015. Beverage milk continues to be supplied from domestic sources, implying imports compete in the manufacture of tradable products. We model manufactured dairy product supply, demand, and trade on a milk fat and non-fat-solid component basis reflecting product fungibility over the 10-year horizon used for our trade policy analysis. We find that if the domestic price support is removed with no change in trade policy, the market price of raw milk falls by about 2% and raw milk production declines by 4.5%. Under substantial tariff cuts of 30–40% with no effective change in domestic dairy policy, Korean fat and non-fat-solid prices fall by 7% and 11%, fat and non-fat-solid imports rise by 9% and 7% and Korea raw milk production falls by about 2% relative to the baseline. Prices of Korean farmer-owned dairy inputs, labor, and capital fall by about 1%.     

A dynamic multi-commodity model of the agricultural sector: A regional application in Brazil

This paper develops a dynamic model to analyze the development process in the agricultural sector. Formulated as a recursive linear programming model, it contains several commodities as outputs, farm and regional resource constraints on owned and purchased inputs-including working capital-and several farm sizes. The objective function is assumed to be separable for each farm size and additive for the region and measures for each year the net expected revenues from crop and livestock production less an investment charge. Prices are exogenous. The model is applied to a rapidly developing agricultural region in Southern Brazil and tested for its ability to trace regional farm sector development over a decade. It is then used to analyze the impact of alternative agricultural policies including price and credit subsidies.     

Ideology and the Balanced Scorecard: An Empirical Exploration of the Tension Between Shareholder Value Maximization and Corporate Social Responsibility

In a society where the ideology of shareholder value maximization (SVM) prevails, how do evaluators make appraisal and bonus decisions when corporate social responsibility (CSR) measures and financial measures in the balanced scorecard (BSC) point in different directions? To explore this question, we conducted two studies to develop and test a conceptual framework. Participants were asked to evaluate the performance of two managers, using a case we wrote about a commercial bank. We found that (1) evaluators are more willing to drop CSR performance measures than financial measures from the evaluations; (2) perceived CSR relevance is influenced by where evaluators stand in regard to CSR (“stakeholder view” in the “Perceptions of the Role of Ethics and Social Responsibility” or PRESOR scale) and also by where evaluators believe shareholders stand (shareholder support); and (3) there is a financial bias in appraisal and bonus decisions when CSR measures are used in the BSC, consistent with SVM ideology. We conclude by discussing the implications of the influence of SVM ideology on the use of CSR measures in terms of business research, practice, and education.     

Nachhaltigkeit in Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft

The scientific advisory board of the federal ministry of economic affairs and climate protection conducted a symposium on sustainability at its 500th meeting. The UN’s sustainable development goals play an increasingly important role in economic policy and regulation. This article gives a survey of the trade-offs and implementation problems that were discussed at the symposium, in particular the operationalisation of sustainability in welfare economics, the implementation of sustainability goals in economic law, the relationship between competition policy and sustainability, the impact of sustainability concerns on monetary policy, and finally, supply chain regulation and sustainability objectives.

     

Patterns of Welfare Dependence before and after a Reform: Evidence from First Generation Immigrants and Natives in Germany

This paper studies the patterns of welfare dependence among first generation immigrants and natives in Germany before and after a substantial recent reform of the welfare system. Using data from the German Socio‐Economic Panel Study, the analysis presents life cycle trajectories of transfer receipt for immigrants and natives and studies the correlation between contextual factors and transfer receipt. We find no statistically significant differences in the probability of transfer receipt between immigrants and natives once socioeconomic characteristics are taken into account. Being a single parent, labor market status, and human capital are most closely correlated with the incidence of transfer receipt for both natives and immigrants. Interestingly, recent welfare reforms did not reverse prior patterns of welfare dependence.