A nonparametric approach to identifying a subset of forecasters that outperforms the simple average

Empirical studies in the forecast combination literature have shown that it is notoriously difficult to improve upon the simple average despite the availability of optimal combination weights. In particular, historical performance-based combination approaches do not select forecasters that improve upon the simple average going forward. This paper shows that this is due to the high correlation among forecasters, which only by chance causes some individuals to have lower root-mean-squared error (RMSE) than the simple average. We introduce a new nonparametric approach to eliminate forecasters who perform well based on chance as well as poor performers. This leaves a subset of forecasters with better performance in subsequent periods. The average of this group improves upon the simple average in the SPF particularly for bond yields where some forecasters may be more likely to have superior forecasting ability.     

A system of equations model of UK tourism demand in neighbouring countries

This paper uses a system of equations model to examine tourism demand during periods of destination country transition and integration into the wider international community. The Almost Ideal Demand System model is applied to the UK demand for tourism in the neighbouring destinations, France, Spain and Portugal. Spain and Portugal are interesting cases as, during the period under consideration, they experienced a process of transition from economies with characteristics typical of developing countries, only entering the World Bank's industrialized countries classification in the 1980s. The paper examines the evolution of tourism demand during these countries' transition from ‘developing’ to ‘developed’ status. Consideration of France as a neighbouring destination also allows the behaviour of tourism demand to be compared between relatively rich and poor countries. The results show the extent to which the cross-country behaviour of demand becomes more or less similar over time with respect to changes in expenditure and effective prices. The expenditure elasticities are greater for Spain than France during the initial period, indicating that tourism can assist countries to ‘catch-up’ with their richer neighbours. However, this outcome is not always the case and may not persist, as Portugal had a low initial expenditure elasticity and Spain's relatively high expenditure elasticity decreased over time. Destinations' sensitivity to changes in their own and competitors' prices can also change over time, as indicated by the increases in the own- and cross-price elasticities for Spain, compared with the decreases for France and Portugal. The cross-price elasticity estimates indicate substitutability between the immediate neighbours, Portugal and Spain, and France and Spain.     

Small business and online training in Australia: who is willing to participate?

This paper investigates small business employers' willingness to participate in online training based on survey of 716 Western Australian small business employers. The results indicate that those small business employers with aspirations towards business growth and who are existing Internet users are more likely to participate in online training than those without growth aspirations.     

Indigenous Human Resource Practices in Australian Mining Companies: Towards an Ethical Model

Mining companies in Australia are increasingly required to interact with Indigenous groups as stakeholders following Native Title legislation in the early 1990s. A study of five mining companies in Australia reveals that they now undertake a range of programs involving Indigenous communities, to assist with access to land, and to enhance their public profile. However, most of these initiatives emanate from carefully quarantined sections of mining companies. Drawing upon cross-cultural and diversity research in particular, this paper contends that only initiatives that strive towards power sharing with Indigenous groups and strategies for broadening the organizational interface with Indigenous groups, will contribute to more ethical practices in mining and other companies.     

The accountability information needs of key charity funders

Government and philanthropic funders are key charity stakeholders, yet we know little about their accountability information needs. This New Zealand study captures these stakeholders’ perceptions of the background, financial and non-financial performance information they need from charities. It also reveals how, in addition to imposing reporting requirements, these key funders engage in ‘institutional work’ to ensure they receive appropriate accountability information.     

Taking technology to task: The skill content of technological change in early twentieth century United States

This paper uses new data on the task content of occupations to present a new picture of the labor market effects of technological change in pre-WWII United States. I show that, similar to the recent computerization episode, the electrification of the manufacturing sector led to a “hollowing out” of the skill distribution whereby workers in the middle of the distribution lost out to those at the extremes. OLS estimates show that electrification increased the demand for clerical, numerical, planning and people skills relative to manual skills while simultaneously reducing relative demand for the dexterity-intensive jobs which comprised the middle of the skill distribution. Thus, early twentieth century technological change was unskill-biased for blue collar tasks but skill-biased on aggregate. These results are in line with the downward trend in wage differentials within U.S. manufacturing up to 1950.     

Victorian’s economy in the long run

Annual estimates of the GDP of Victoria for the period 1861–1976/77 are here presented and used as a basis for an analysis of Victoria’s long–run economic growth. Victoria is represented as having fallen behind the per capita GDP of Australia as a whole in the 1870s but to have out–paced the national growth rate from the early twentieth century until the late 1950s. The changing importance of natural resources and of the scope for manufacturing development are seen as the basis for an explanation of the Victorian divergence. The article carries the implication of a need for regional disaggregation in the analysis of Australian economic growth.