Impact of macroeconomic news on metal futures

This paper uses intra-day data for the period 2002 through 2008 to examine the intensity, direction, and speed of impact of US macroeconomic news announcements on the return, volatility and trading volume of three important commodities - gold, silver and copper futures. We find that the response of metal futures to economic news surprises is both swift and significant, with the 8:30 am set of announcements - in particular, nonfarm payrolls and durable goods orders - having the largest impact. Furthermore, announcements that reflect an unexpected improvement in the economy tend to have a negative impact on gold and silver prices; however, they tend to have a positive effect on copper prices. In comparison, realized volatility and volume for all three metals are positively influenced by economic news. Finally, there is evidence that several news announcements exert an asymmetric impact on market activity variables.     

HAS WORLD POVERTY REALLY FALLEN?

We evaluate the claim that world consumption poverty has fallen since 1990 in light of alternative assumptions about the extent of initial poverty and the rate of subsequent poverty reduction in China, India, and the rest of the developing world. We use two poverty indicators: the aggregate headcount and the headcount ratio, and consider two widely-used international poverty lines ($1/day and $2/day). We conclude that, because of uncertainties in relation to the extent and trend of poverty in China, India, and the rest of the developing world, global poverty may or may not have increased. The extent of the estimated increase or decrease in world poverty is critically dependent on the assumptions made. Our conclusions highlight the importance of improving the quality of global poverty statistics.     

Undominated Nash Implementation in Bounded Mechanisms

We study implementation in undominated Nash equilibrium by bounded mechanisms. (An undominated Nash equilibrium is a Nash equilibrium in which no agent uses a weakly dominated strategy. A mechanism is bounded if every dominated strategy is dominated by some undominated strategy.) We identify necessary conditions and sufficient conditions for such implementation. These conditions are satisfied in virtually all economic environments, and are also satisfied by interesting correspondences from the social choice literature. For economic settings, we provide a particularly simple implementing mechanism for which the undominated equilibrium outcomes coincide with those obtained from the iterative elimination of weakly dominated strategies. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: 022, 025, 026.     

Stakeholder influences on sustainability practices in the Canadian forest products industry

We examined how managers' perceptions of different types of stakeholder influences in the Canadian forestry industry affect the types of sustainability practices that their firms adopt. Both influences involving withholding of resources by social and ecological stakeholders and those involving directed usage of resources from economic stakeholders were found to drive such practices. We found that the industry and its stakeholders have moved beyond a focus on early stages of sustainability performance such as pollution control and eco‐efficiency. However, more advanced practices, such as those involving the redefinition of business and industrial ecosystems where firms locate in a region so that they can exchange and utilize wastes generated by other firms, are in their infancy. Stakeholders and firms in the industry are focused on the intermediate sustainability phases involving recirculation of materials and redesign of processes including sustainable harvesting of lumber. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estes' stimulus sampling theory and massed versus spaced advertising schedules

Few studies offer a theoretical explanation of the differential effects of massed and spaced advertising. Consequently, conclusions have been mixed. The authors introduce the stimulus sampling model of spacing effects based on Estes' mathematical learning theory. The model posits that massed repetition generates superior memory at short retention intervals, whereas spaced repetition produces superior memory at longer retention intervals. Data from various studies are analyzed, and implications and potential applications of the model in the advertising context are explored.     

Global Volatility and Forex Returns in East Asia*

During 2001–2010, increases in mature market volatility were associated with declines in forex returns for East Asian economies, consistent with an overall ‘flight to safety’ effect. Estimates from GARCH models suggest that a 10 percentage point increase in mature market equity volatility generated an exchange rate depreciation of up to 3/4 percent. This sensitivity rose during a more tranquil subsample for some countries, reflecting their greater integration with global financial markets. Long‐run forex volatility increased in Asian economies after 2008, reflecting the global reach of the financial crisis in mature markets. Unconditional standard deviations estimated from these models provide operational measures of ‘long‐term’ and ‘excess’ volatility in forex markets.     

Relationship Marketing at the Service Encounter: the Case of Life Insurance

This article details empirical evidence to suggest that, by and large, UK life insurance salespeople fail to be client-driven in their approach to customer service. Furthermore, there is insufficient attention given to the nature of exchanges between service provider and purchaser by these staffs. Therefore, by implication, there is a deficit in relationship marketing implementation at the service encounter and workbench level.     

Development aid and economic growth: A positive long-run relation

We analyze the growth impact of official development assistance to developing countries. Our approach is different from that of previous studies in two major ways. First, we disentangle the effects of two kinds of aid: developmental and non-developmental. Second, our specifications allow for the effect of aid on economic growth to occur over long periods. Our results indicate that developmental aid promotes long-run growth. The effect is significant, large and robust to different specifications and estimation techniques.     

Rent a womb: Surrogate selection,investment incentives and contracting

We develop a model of gestational surrogacy, in which a childless couple faces heterogeneous prospective surrogates. High-type surrogates add more value but also have higher outside options. Surrogates can make specific investments for the overall well-being (care) of the unborn child. We show that, under noncontractibility, surrogates invest less (take less care) than the first-best. Couples are also more likely to choose low-type surrogates, who need less compensation for foregoing cheaper outside options. Hence the popular practice of making surrogacy contracts unenforceable might put the unborn child at risk.     

Does the price of crude oil respond to macroeconomic news?

In a recent study, Kilian L. and Vega C. (2011) indicate that the daily price of crude oil is mostly unresponsive to macroeconomic news, and at times exhibits response‐coefficients that are counterintuitive. The authors conclude that the price of crude oil is predetermined to macro aggregates, and hence determined in a flow demand/supply framework. We make the argument that inferences on commodity price determination should be drawn from news responses only after the standard tests are subject to inventory (or stock) controls. Using daily and intraday price data and proxies for inventory levels, we reexamine the responsiveness of crude prices to macroeconomic news. Our evidence suggests a very limited role for stock levels in the responsiveness of crude oil. The prior conclusion that crude oil is priced primarily in a flow‐environment is supported by our data. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 32:536–559, 2012