The regime-switching risk premium in the gold futures market

A bivariate Markov-switching model identifies two regimes in the futures-price and risk-premium models. The persistent underlying states have very different implications for spot and risk-premium forecasts. In the “low” state, a positive bias predicts spot price appreciation. The “high” state is associated with lower spot appreciation and higher risk premiums. The regime-switching framework provides a new perspective on the intertemporal role of gold as a hedge or safe-haven asset. The gold spot-price appreciation regime is shown to be correlated with higher inflation rates and the complement regime is associated with high market returns and stock market risk premia. Since the state-space methodology procedure can be employed using only past data, forecasts of the persistent unobserved underlying state of the gold price appreciation regime will be augmented as more data becomes available.     

Regulation,Profit Variability and Beta

Many tests of the Peltzman hypothesis that regulation buffers the firm's cash flows examine the firm's equity beta. We model the asset beta and show that it (and the equity beta) are a function of several variables beyond those found in previous tests. Since these variables are also affected by regulation, tests of the Peltzman theory that do not hold these factors constant will be biased. The empirical tests in this paper hold other determinants of beta equal and find evidence consistent with the Peltzman buffering hypothesis and the model of beta.     

Boards of directors and substitution effects of alternative governance mechanisms

Research on the determinants and effects of various governance mechanisms typically assumes that these mechanisms operate independently. However, since a variety of mechanisms are used to achieve alignment of the interests of shareholders and managers, we propose that the level of a particular mechanism should be influenced by the levels of other mechanisms which simultaneously operate in the firm. We examine the substitution effects between alternative internal governance mechanisms for a sample of 81 bank holding companies in the postderegulation period. Specifically, we consider the relationship between monitoring by outside directors and the following mechanisms: monitoring by large outside shareholders, mutual monitoring by inside directors, and incentive effects of shareholdings by managers. Our results provide evidence consistent with the substitution hypothesis. We examine the implications of our findings for future research in the area of corporate governance.     

Modeling Foreign Bank Performance and Lending Behavior

This paper examines the profitability and commercial loan growth of foreign banks using a simultaneous‐equation framework. Maximizing behavior provides a two‐equation system in which bank profitability depends on variables related to expected returns, costs, and risks and in which loan growth is determined by risk and return variables. The model is tested to evaluate the determinants of foreign bank performace and lending behavior in the United States between 1987 and 1991. Overall the results indicate that factors such as capital strength, commercial and industrial loan growth, and assets composition were important in determining foreign banks' return‐on‐assets in the period under study. The role of capital appears to be particularly important in explaining foreign bank performance. The single significant determinant of loan growth was found to be previous period's loan growth.     

Heterogeneity in turnover: The effect of relative compensation dispersion of firms on the mobility and entrepreneurship of extreme performers

We explore the strategic implications of firm compensation dispersion on the heterogeneous turnover outcomes of employee mobility and entrepreneurship. We theorize that individuals' turnover decisions are affected by the interaction of individual performance with the firm's compensation dispersion relative to its competitors. We test our theory using linked employer-employee data from the legal services industry. We find that individuals with extreme high performance are less likely to leave firms that offer higher compensation dispersion than competitors, however, if they do leave these employers, they are more likely to create new ventures. In contrast, employees with extreme low performance are more likely to leave firms with more compensation dispersion than competitors, and these individuals are less likely to engage in new venture creation. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Returns after personal tax on UK equity and gilts, 1919–1998

This paper investigates whether personal tax could help explain the size of the historic equity premium in the UK measured before personal tax. If there has been a higher tax burden on equity, some of the premium could be viewed as compensation for tax. It is estimated here that personal tax reduces the arithmetic mean nominal return on equity from 13.3% to 11.1% pa during the period 1919–1998, and the mean return on gilts from 7.1% to 5.6% pa. Thus, personal tax accounts for a slightly higher proportion of the before-tax return on gilts than on equity, implying that the equity premium is not a compensation for a higher tax burden on equity.     

Changing the paradigm for telemedicine development and evaluation: a prospective model-based approach

Telemedicine is an application of information technology that provides the means to deliver healthcare services at a distance. Interest in telemedicine by the healthcare community has been highly variable since its beginnings in the early 1960s, in part due to the failure to quantitatively demonstrate its cost-effectiveness in delivering healthcare services. Although once again on the upswing, we argue that telemedicine will not fulfill its advertised promises unless the community adopts a new paradigm for its development and evaluation. The paper thus summarizes the prevailing approach—technology driven, retrospective evaluation, little planning—and describes a new one which is based on capability requirements and the use of models for prospective analysis and planning. A new program to develop structural models of the healthcare delivery system for this purpose is presented, including the program's modeling criteria, major components and processes of the healthcare system being considered, the development strategy being pursued, and the structure of specific models being developed.