项目集成控制中不确定参数挣值法研究

针对传统挣值方法没有考虑计划指标不确定性的问题,文章将挣值法与统计学的一般理论相结合,将不确定信息的处理方法引入挣值分析,提出不确定性参数挣值法。该方法通过分析工序作业成本一进度的统计规律性,建立项目成本一进度计划的控制区间,根据项目实际执行情况得到更客观的评价信息,在拓展了挣值分析的功能的同时,改善了计划实施的可靠度。     

后金融危机时代京津冀区域经济合作发展趋势与河北战略选择

本文首先介绍了京津冀地区区域经济合作的现状和存在的问题。通过分析金融危机后京津冀地区产业体系的变化,在此基础上探讨后金融危机时期京津冀区域经济合作发展的趋势。最后,有针对性地提出了河北省参与京津冀区域经济合作的战略对策。     

河北省县域农业旅游发展研究

农业旅游是县域经济的重要组成部分。河北省发展县域农业旅游取得了一定的成果,但也存在诸多问题。为了解决这些弊端,获得更大的经济效益,河北省各县域应充分利用现有农业资源,谨慎处理多种关系,采用适宜的开发模式,进行科学合理的规划。     

西藏非物质文化遗产法律保护的实证分析

《保护非物质文化遗产公约》的通过是传统文化由传统方法保护转变为特殊权利方法保护的例证,也为西藏传统文化的保护提供了全新的范式。《非物质文化遗产保护法》无疑将成为西藏非物质文化遗产保护最基本的国内法依据,而包括宪法、民族区域自治法在内的规范性法律文件构成保护西藏非物质文化遗产的其他国内法渊源。当下,对于西藏非物质文化遗产的保护,我们在欢庆《非物质文化遗产保护法》出台的同时,应积极推进地方立法的工作。     

An Empirical Analysis of the Demand for Imports in Three CARICOM Member Countries: An Application of the Bounds Test for Cointegration

This paper provides fresh estimates of income and price elasticities of import demand in Guyana, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago using a bounds test for cointegration. In addition, the paper also provides estimates of the consumption, investment, and exports elasticities of import demand. These latter elasticities were all found to be positive and statistically significant with values ranging from 0.16 to 0.55 in the long-run.     

The Valuation Effect of Accounting Standard 158 on Firms with High and Low Financial Risk

SFAS 158 mandated balance sheet disclosure of the funded status of firms’ Defined Benefit Pension Plan using the Projected Benefit Obligation (PBO) to estimate the pension liability. SFAS 158 caused a market phenomenon because the use of the PBO engendered dramatically higher estimates of pension liability and hence the perception of risk. Our work focuses on two aspects of this change in pension accounting: first, how will industry firms change their accounting strategy in light of the new rules, and second, how will firms’ stock prices be affected by the new allegedly better estimate of pension liability? Our research suggests that firms’ accounting strategies changed in that they use higher discount rates to estimate pension liability which offset the dramatic impact of using the PBO. In addition, we find that high financial risk firms’ tendencies to use higher discount rates increase with the firms’ leverage and decrease with liquidity. To test the market reaction we utilize standard event study methodology to investigate the effects of SFAS 158 on stock returns. Our findings suggest that firms with high (low) financial risk earn negative (positive) abnormal returns on and around relevant event dates preceding the implementation of SFAS 158.     

Small and Medium Enterprise Financing in Transition Economies

This paper studies the financing status of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in transition economies. Factors causing financing obstacles are indentified and further analyzed to determine their influence over financing patterns. Bank regulatory practices relevant to SMEs’ access to bank loans and their influence over loan structures are identified. This study contributes to the existing body of knowledge by exploring the impact of specific bank regulatory practices on credit lending to SMEs in transition economies.     

Financial Globalization and Banking Crises in Emerging Markets

Bank crises in emerging economies have been a feature of the recent global crisis, and their incidence has increased in the post-Bretton Woods era. This paper investigates the impact of financial globalization on the incidence of systemic bank crises in 20 emerging markets over the years 1976–2002 using measures of de facto and de jure financial openness. An increase in foreign debt liabilities contributes to an increase in the incidence of crises, but foreign direct investment and portfolio equity liabilities have the opposite effect. A more liberal de jure capital regime lowers the incidence of banking crises, while a regime of fixed exchange rates increases their frequency. The results of the econometric analysis is consistent with the experience of East European and central Asian emerging markets, which attracted a relatively large proportion of capital flows in the form of debt in recent years and have been particularly hard hit by the global financial crisis.     

Inflation and Welfare in Latin America

This paper follows Bailey (J Polit Econ 64:93–110, 1956) and Lucas (Econometrica 68:247–274, 2000) and estimates the welfare cost of inflation for 17 Latin American economies. We use annual data, from 1955 to 2000, and recent advances in the field of applied econometrics to estimate the inflation rate elasticity of money demand and report significantly high and differential welfare cost estimates for these economies.