Corporate strategy and capital structure

The basic thesis of this exploratory investigation was that a corporate strategy perspective may complement the traditional financial paradigm in explaining capital structure in large U.S. corporations. Earlier fusion of strategic and financial literature led to a series of propositions antecedent to this work. Inclusion of Rumelt's diversification categories plus elsewhere validated financial contextual variables led to hypotheses for the present study. Results suggest a managerial choice perspective may help to explain the capital structure choice at the firm level of analysis.     

Economic Consequences of the Cancellation of Inner Reserves for Hong Kong Banks

Inner reserves, which allow banks to report a higher or lower earnings at managerial discretion, bring into focus the ability of the market to make an informed judgment of banks' performance. This study examines the market response to the disclosure and elimination of inner reserves by Hong Kong banks resulting from a change in the regulatory reporting system. Test results show that despite a significant increase in the variability of bank earnings in the post-compared to the pre-disclosure period, there is no evidence of a significant increase in banks' systematic risk in the post-disclosure period. Earnings-returns association is significantly stronger in the post- than in the pre-disclosure period, indicating an improvement in the value relevance of reported earnings. Disclosure of inner reserve transfer is found to provide incremental information over reported earnings over a short disclosure window. These results suggest that the increased value relevance of earnings outweighs the costs of inner reserve cancellation, thus supporting greater reporting transparency for Hong Kong banks.     

Older age underwriting: frisky vs frail

The speed of the aging process is variable. Some individuals remain exceptionally fit beyond age 90, while others become frail and fragile early. Survival is better predicted by biological age (state of health, status of reserves) rather than chronological age (age in years since date of birth). The frail group shows a higher mortality compared to the robust group. When assessing the elderly in underwriting, it is important to note the usual chronic diseases such as cardiovascular disease, COPD, cancer risk, and so on. But because of its strong impact on prognosis, it is also important to assess frailty. Key features of frailty are social isolation, dependency in managing life activities and self-care, cognitive decline, shrinking of bone and muscle mass, and slow weight loss.     

Basic needs or comprehensive development: Should the UNDP have a development strategy?

The basic needs strategy turns out, on examination, not to be a development strategy at all. Most versions neglect the most basic of all development needs–the need for structural transformation as well as a quantum jump in modern industry and modern technology. Considerations of equity, indispensable as they are, do not require that consumption goals be placed ahead of all others. A society is entitled to set its priorities for consumption as part of an overall programme for comprehensive change and development, recognizing that a choice may have to be made between the earliest possible attainment of minimum standards of living and a more rapid and secure advance in such standards in future. International agencies should not take strong positions on such matters, and should concentrate their efforts in the areas where their experience and competence lie.     

Pension roulette: have you bet too much on equities?

In the 1990s, funding pension obligations by investing in stocks looked smart. By 1999, the bull market had poured a collective $260 billion surplus into the pension coffers of the S&P 500, permitting the companies to record the year-to-year increases as additional income. But just two years later, the bear market had obliterated those gains, replacing them with a cavernous $240 billion deficit--which had to be offset by the unlucky firms' ongoing cash flows, wreaking havoc on their earnings, debt levels, and stock prices. Corporate executives may be blamed for this debacle. But they were only following the rules. Current accounting guidelines keep companies from recording pension liabilities and assets on their balance sheets, instead relegating them to the footnotes. That makes it hard to see the risk that market drops expose companies to. Board members and top executives need to look beyond distorted accounting numbers to the economic realities of pension plans. Once they do, they may be surprised to find that they would gain far greater value and flexibility by passively investing their pension funds entirely in bonds. A bond portfolio can be designed to meet precisely, and with virtual certainty, a company's pension obligation, thus eliminating the chance of a funding gap. The predictability of bond investments also stabilizes earnings and cash flow. The expanded corporate debt capacity that results can then be used to fuel growth or reduce the firm's overall cost of capital. Even without an overhaul of today's misguided accounting rules, there's little reason for companies' pension funds to hold anything other than bonds.     

A baseline model of industry evolution

The paper analyses some general dynamic properties of industries characterized by heterogeneous firms and continuing stochastic entry.After a brief critical assessment of some significant drawbacks of recent contributions to modeling of stochastic industrial dynamics, we propose a novel analytical apparatus able to derive some generic properties of the underlying competition process combining persistent technological heterogeneity, differential growth of individual firms and turnover. The basic model, we suggest, is indeed applicable with proper modifications to a large class of evolutionary processes, well beyond industrial dynamics.JEL Classification: L11, O30, C60Support to this research by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria; the Fujitsu Research Institute for Advanced Information (FRI), Japan; the Italian National Research Council (CNR), the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research (MIUR, prot. 2002132413 003) and the Free University of Bozen Bolzano, Italy, is gratefully acknowledged. Comments by Andrea Bassanini, Francesca Chiaromonte, Steven Klepper, Uwe Cantner, Drew Fudenberg and the anonymous referees helped in shaping the paper to its present form. Mariele Berté provided the computer simulations of the model. The usual caveats apply.Correspondence to: G. Dosi     

Testing the validity of responses to contingent valuation questioning

One way of assessing the validity of results generated through the application of the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) is through the analysis of response sensitivity to factors expected to have an influence. Scope testing involves presenting at least two alternative impact scenarios to population sub-samples and testing for differences between the estimates generated. Most applications of the CVM in Australia have not involved scope testing and those that have yielded mixed results. These studies are reviewed. The results of scope sensitivity and other validity tests are presented for a study aimed at estimating the value of environmental damage caused by dryland salinity in the Upper South East of South Australia.     

On tests concerning lines and planes in hyperspace

Summary As an application of tests of linear hypotheses methods are presented for determining confidence regions for intersections of several hyperplanes. These results constitute one generalization of Tocher’s method for point and interval estimates of a concurrent set of regression lines in the plane.