The High-Volume Return Premium

The idea that extreme trading activity contains information about the future evolution of stock prices is investigated. We find that stocks experiencing unusually high (low) trading volume over a day or a week tend to appreciate (depreciate) over the course of the following month. We argue that this high-volume return premium is consistent with the idea that shocks in the trading activity of a stock affect its visibility, and in turn the subsequent demand and price for that stock. Return autocorrelations, firm announcements, market risk, and liquidity do not seem to explain our results.     

More or Less Ambition in the Doha Round? Modeling the Development Impact of Recent Proposals

We analyse the impact on developing countries, whose economies depend heavily on agriculture, of a WTO Doha Development Round agreement based on greater or lesser levels of ambition. We present the results of an ambitious versus an unambitious Doha Round outcome, using the MIRAGE model of the global economy, with a special focus on developing countries. Our simulations are based on negotiating proposals from the run-up to the Hong Kong ministerial meeting but not agreed upon in December 2005. We compare those outcomes with the estimated effects of full global trade liberalization. The results for the two Doha scenarios demonstrate the high stakes of this negotiation given the positions of EU, US and the G-20 coalition. A successful round could deliver real gains both globally and for developing countries, but the magnitude of those gains depends on the shape of the agreement. A reform outcome based on the most ambitious components of the negotiating proposals of the US and EU delivers noticeably greater benefits than an unambitious outcome. Developing countries are exposed to very contrasting fortunes. The details matter in the differing proposals, such as the tariff and domestic support reduction formulae, tariff caps, and number of sensitive and special products. Negotiating commitment and diligence are needed in 2006 to avoid a hollow Doha outcome given the technical character of these details.     

AIDS is your business

If your company operates in a developing country, AIDS is your business. While Africa has received the most attention, AIDS is also spreading swiftly in other parts of the world. Russia and Ukraine had the fastest-growing epidemics last year, and many experts believe China and India will suffer the next tidal wave of infection. Why should executives be concerned about AIDS? Because it is destroying the twin rationales of globalization strategy-cheap labor and fast-growing markets--in countries where people are heavily affected by the epidemic. Fortunately, investments in programs that prevent infection and provide treatment for employees who have HIV/AIDS are profitable for many businesses--that is, they lead to savings that outweigh the programs' costs. Due to the long latency period between HIV infection and the onset of AIDS symptoms, a company is not likely to see any of the costs of HIV/AIDS until five to ten years after an employee is infected. But executives can calculate the present value of epidemic-related costs by using the discount rate to weigh each cost according to its expected timing. That allows companies to think about expenses on HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment programs as investments rather than merely as costs. The authors found that the annual cost of AIDS to six corporations in South Africa and Botswana ranged from 0.4% to 5.9% of the wage bill. All six companies would have earned positive returns on their investments if they had provided employees with free treatment for HIV/AIDS in the form of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), according to the mathematical model the authors used. The annual reduction in the AIDS "tax" would have been as much as 40.4%. The authors' conclusion? Fighting AIDS not only helps those infected; it also makes good business sense.     

Impact of telephone and satellite earth station installations on GDP : A model for rural areas of LDCs

Presents a method for estimating the impact on national development of installation of telecommunication facilities in rural areas of developing countries. A methodology developed by Hardy is applied to three groups of developing countries and a hypothetical rural region to estimate the impact on GDP per thin route satellite earth station installed over a ten year period. A logarithmic relationship between telephone density and impact on GDP per earth station is found, so that the impact per earth station increases with lower telephone densities. The model can be used to estimate the impact on national GDP of telephone installations and/or thin route earth stations in regions of low telephone density.     

Equally-distributed equivalent utility,ex post egalitarianism and utilitarianism

We provide an axiomatization of expected equally-distributed equivalent-utility social welfare functions in the context of Harsanyi?s impartial observer theorem. For this family of social welfare functions, we show what additional axiom is necessary and sufficient for the observer to exhibit aversion to ex post inequality. We also relate this axiomatization to our axiomatization in a companion paper of generalized utilitarian social welfare functions. Given certain richness assumptions, the only social welfare functions that belong to both families are the utilitarian.     

The effects of air quality regulations on the location decisions of pollution-intensive manufacturing plants

This research examines the effects of the 1977 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) on the location decisions of pollution-intensive manufacturing plants. We develop a panel data set to analyze plant births of polluting manufacturers over time as a function county-level attainment status of the federal standard for ozone pollution. We find that more stringent county-level environmental regulations impact pollution-intensive capital flows through deterring new plant births. We also find that the impact of stricter regulations varies by pollution-intensity of manufacturers, with results suggesting that federal guidelines have a greater impact on high pollution intensive manufacturers than more moderate polluters.      

A South African national economic and environmental policyframework

Most contemporary economic theories upon which conventional national accounting is based regard man‐made assets as productive capital to be depreciated against the value of production. Such production, without replenishment or renewal of the asset or capital stock, is not sustainable. Natural resource assets, however, are not valued in the same way. There is no accounting mechanism to reflect the decrease in potential future pro duction as the resource diminishes or deteriorates. In 1993, the United Nations adopted its guidelines for a ‘System of Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting’ (SEEA), which allows for the adjustment of the System of National Accounts (SNA) for natural asset stripping and degradation, providing a format for national accounting which assesses the viability and sustainability of economic growth. The concept of an SEEA for South Africa was pursued in 1994 as a pilot study. The framework to be devel oped was termed the South African National Economic Environmental Planning (SANEEP) model. The framework can be used to predict the environmental impact, in terms of natural resource use and degradation, of economic growth, both nationally and at the sectoral level. In addition, it can be used to test the sectoral economic impact, and thus the desirability of certain types of environmental economic instruments such as pol lution taxes, or the imposition of royalties on mineral extraction. Hence, the SANEEP framework has the potential to become a broad‐based, integrated environmental and economic planning tool. This article describes the SANEEP model, its information requirements and applications.