Doha Merchandise Trade Reform: What Is at Stake for Developing Countries?

The LINKAGE model of the global economy and the latest GlobalTrade Analysis Project (GTAP) database (version 6.05) are usedto examine the impact of current merchandise trade barriersand agricultural subsidies and possible reform outcomes of theWorld Trade Organization’s (WTO’s) Doha DevelopmentAgenda. The results suggest that moving to free global merchandisetrade would boost real incomes in Sub-Saharan Africa proportionatelymore than in other developing countries or in high-income countries,despite the terms of trade loss in parts of that region. Particularattention is given to agriculture, as farmers constitute thepoorest households in developing countries but the most assistedin rich countries. Net farm incomes would rise substantiallyin Sub-Saharan Africa and other developing country regions,alleviating rural poverty. Partial liberalization could movethe world some way toward those desirable outcomes, the moreso the more developing countries themselves cut applied tariffs,particularly on agricultural imports.     

Maternal employment,migration, and child development

We analyze the roles of and interrelationships among school inputs and parental inputs in affecting child development through the specification and estimation of a behavioral model of household migration and maternal employment decisions. We integrate information on these decisions with observations on child outcomes over a 13-year period from the National Longitudinal Study of Youth (NLSY). We find that the impact of our school quality measures diminishes by factors of 2 to 4 after accounting for the fact that families may choose where to live in part based on school characteristics and labor market opportunities. The positive statistical relationship between child outcomes and maternal employment reverses sign and remains statistically significant after controlling for its possible endogeneity. Our estimates imply that when parental responses are taken into account, policy changes in school quality end up having only minor impacts on child test scores.     

Credible expectations — The US Department of Energy's Hydrogen Program as enactor and selector of hydrogen technologies

There are many competing transition paths toward sustainability and even more competing visions and expectations, while only a limited of number of paths can be supported. In the literature so far, not much attention has been paid to the question: what makes one expectation more credible than another?On the basis of a case study on the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Hydrogen Program we show how credible expectations build on three arguments in favor of the promising option. First there is the technology's current level of performance and its historical progress toward that level. Second a path forward is constructed to argue that even higher levels of performance can be achieved. And third, an end target is constructed that relates to relevant societal needs. All three elements can, and often are, subject of contestation and competing options will provide the same type of arguments and relate to the same societal needs.Finally, a transition path needs promising enabling technologies to remain credible, and the ‘losers’ are dropped as soon as the credibility of the path is challenged.     

A new measurement method of investor overconfidence

We present an alternative measurement method of investor overconfidence, using unique survey data on stock market predictions of investors. We apply the Parkinson estimate based on extreme bounds around the stock forecast to deduce investor confidence. The results support overconfidence.     

Expert opinion versus actual transaction evidence in the valuation of non-market amenities

Actual property values are overwhelmingly employed as a dependent variable in hedonic pricing models. Yet, assessed property values are generally more readily available than actual sales values and have, in some studies, been used in lieu of market prices. In this study, we compare estimates of different non-market amenity values based on actual transactions and assessed values. We estimate a Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) model with two hedonic price equations, one with actual market values as the dependent variable and the other with assessed property values, and compare the resulting estimates of shadow prices for open space amenities. We also take into account spatial autocorrelation and combine Method of Moment estimates of the spatial parameters in both equations to create our test statistic. The results indicate that we cannot accept the hypothesis that the impacts of open space on property values are the same for actual sales and assessed values. Moreover, we do observe some differences between the distributions of assessed versus sales values, although the difference between the sizes of open space effects measured within the two equations is rather limited. Thus, while this one study is insufficient to enable one to draw definitive conclusions, there remains the possibility that policy makers cannot reliably base decisions on amenity values obtained from a hedonic model using assessed values.     

Large Scale Marine Protected Areas for Biodiversity Conservation Along a Linear Gradient: Cooperation, Strategic Behavior or Conservation Autarky?

In this paper we investigate effects of overlap in species between ecosystems along a linear gradient on the location of marine protected areas (MPAs) under full cooperation, strategic behavior and conservation autarky. Compared to the full cooperation outcome, both strategic behavior and conservation autarky lead to under-investment in biodiversity protection. Under strategic behavior, however, we observe the additional problem of ??location leakage?? i.e. countries invest less in species protected by others. Conservation autarky eliminates location leakage; in ecosystems with partly overlapping species compositions at country borders it even induces MPAs that are too large from a global perspective. We also find that, in our setting of a linear gradient without migrating species, countries focus their conservation efforts on species unique to their own country and that these species are relatively well protected compared to common species.     

“Managing” Corporate Community Involvement

In academic research, many attempts have been undertaken to legitimize corporate community involvement by showing a business case for it. However, much less attention has been devoted to building understanding about the actual dynamics and challenges of managing CCI in the business context. As an alternative to existing predominantly static and top-down approaches, this paper introduces a social movement framework for analyzing CCI management. Based on the analysis of qualitative case study data, we argue that the active role of employees pressuring for CCI policies and practices, as well as the organization audience responses to their efforts, are at the core of the challenges involved in managing CCI. These challenges also pose limits to how far CCI can be extended to a “business as usual” activity.