中国失衡时代是否已终结

过去十年,全球性不均衡问题逐渐成为各国宏观经济政策的中心议题。本文重点分析了当前中国的外部失衡问题,研究了2008年后促使中国经常账户盈余下降的影响因素,预测了中国外部顺差的走向。本文认为,未来几年中国的经常账户盈余将保持适度。外部失衡不能反映当今中国国际收支的主要特征。随着中国国内经济越来越依赖投资的拉动,内部失衡问题将愈发明显。     

Risk bias and the link between motivation and new venture post-entry international growth

We link research in international entrepreneurship and on behavioral decision making with the international business literature on firm degree of internationalization to advance an integrative model of new venture post-entry international growth. We test this model on a sample of 286 new ventures. Results demonstrate that the extent to which entrepreneurs perceive internationalization choices more or less risky than an objective standard (i.e. internationalization risk bias) leads to variations in international growth rates, in particular international scope. Further, we show that the decision-maker's motivation leads to differences in both internationalization risk bias and international scope.     

Business Unethicality as an Impediment to Consumer Trust: The Moderating Role of Demographic and Cultural Characteristics

The article reports the findings of a study conducted among 387 consumers regarding their perceptions of the unethicality of business practices of firms and how these affect their response behavior, in terms of trust, satisfaction, and loyalty. The study confirmed that high levels of perceived corporate unethicality decrease consumer trust. This in turn reduces consumer satisfaction, which ultimately has negative effects on customer loyalty. It was also revealed that, although both consumer gender and urbanity have a moderating effect on the link between perceived unethicality and trust, the age group and level of education of the consumer did not exhibit such an effect. With regard to consumer cultural characteristics, both high uncertainty avoidance and low individualism were found to increase the negative impact of business unethicality on trust, as opposed to power distance and masculinity that did not have any moderating effect on this relationship. Implications for managers are extracted from the study findings, as well as directions for future research.     

The Journal of Advertising and the Development of Advertising Theory: Reflections and Directions for Future Research

In this article, I provide some thoughts that guided my decision making while I was editor of the Journal of Advertising (2003–2006). Specifically, I reflect on the definition of theory and how it has been and should be used in the advertising discipline. In particular, I attempt to distinguish between weaker (contextual) and stronger (universal) theories and present my views on how future research in advertising can proceed in developing useful theories within this domain.     

Emotional labor's impact in a retail environment

It is essential for organizations to understand and manage salespeople's emotions. By monitoring the effects of emotions on the job, management can promote and enhance its sales force. However, the literature on salespersons' emotions has been largely overlooked. This paper establishes an integrative emotional labor process model to better understand the emotional component of the sales force in a retail context. Specifically, the paper examines the impact of emotional labor and emotional exhaustion in relation to job satisfaction and organizational commitment. Findings suggest that emotional labor predicts both job satisfaction and organizational commitment, while emotional exhaustion only predicts job satisfaction.     

Capturing the Evolution of Customer–Firm Relationships: How Customers Become More (or Less) Valuable Over Time

Few studies have examined the influence of marketing activities while accounting for customer dynamics over time. The authors contribute to this growing literature by extending the hurdle model to capture customer dynamics using a hidden Markov chain. We find our dynamic model performs better than static and latent class models. Our results suggest the customer base can be segmented into four segments: Deal-prone, Dependable, Active, and Event-driven. Each segment reacts differentially to marketing activities. Although catalogs influence both purchase incidence and the number of orders, this marketing activity has the largest impact on purchase incidence across all four segments. In contrast, retail promotions are more likely to influence the number of orders a customer will make for all of the segments except for the Deal-prone segment. For this segment, retail promotions have the strongest impact on purchase incidence.     

Branding in the age of social media firestorms: how to create brand value by fighting back online

ABSTRACT

Leading research on social media firestorms typically advises managers to quickly quell the backlash by appeasing brand critics. Drawing on crisis communications and branding research, we offer a radically different perspective and argue that brands can benefit from fighting back online. Through a netnography of a moral-based firestorm, we contribute to the marketing and crisis communications literatures by identifying the escalation strategy as a way to build brand value; explaining how brands can activate supporters; and providing guidance on how to assess these morally steeped events. We advance branding research by identifying how managers can provoke consumer-generated brand stories; and uncovering the hidden benefits of negative consumer voices. Finally, we outline a new perspective on how brands are dialogically constructed through a process we call ‘flyting’.     

Threshold Cointegration in the Greek Milk Market

This article investigates the nonlinear adjustment between consumer and producer prices in the Greek milk sector using a threshold error correction autoregressive model. The results reject the null hypothesis of linear cointegration in favor of a 2-regime threshold cointegration model. A cointegrating relationship is expected only when equilibrium consumer price is decreased more than 24.12% or the equilibrium relative markup is squeezed more than 62.74%. In this case consumer prices have to increase faster than producer prices to restore the long-run equilibrium between consumer-producer milk prices.     

Bertrand under Uncertainty: Private and Common Costs*

Does asymmetric information about costs in a homogeneous-good Bertrand model soften competition? Earlier literature has shown that the answer (perhaps counter-intuitively) is “no,” while assuming (i) private (i.e., independent) cost draws and (ii) no drastic innovations. I first show, in a fairly general setting, that by relaxing (i) and instead allowing for sufficiently much common (interdependent) cost draws, asymmetric information indeed softens competition. I then study a specification that yields a closed-form solution and show that relaxing (ii) but not (i) does not alter the result in the earlier literature. While relying on specific functional forms, this specification is quite rich and might be useful in applications. It allows for any (positive) degree of interdependence between the cost draws, for any demand elasticity, and for any number of firms. The closed-form solution is simple and in pure strategies.