Interne Revision &; Controlling — Instrumente moderner Unternehmensführung in Kooperation

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Credit Risk Models – Do They Deliver Their Promises? A Quantitative Assessment

We develop a framework to assess the statistical significance of expected default frequency calculated by credit risk models. This framework is then used to analyse the quality of two commercially available models that have become popular among practitioners: KMV Credit Monitor and RiskCalc from Moody's.
Using a unique database of expected default probability from both vendors, we study both the consistency of the prediction and its timeliness. We introduce the concept of cumulative accuracy profile (CAP) that allows to see in one curve the percentage of defaulting companies captured by the models one year in advance. We also use the Miller's information test to see if the models add information to the S&P rating.
The result of the analysis indicates that these models indeed add relevant information not accounted for by rating alone. Moreover, with respect to rating agencies, the models predict defaults more than ten months in advance on average.
(J.E.L.: C52).     

Constructing migration: Infrastructure,poverty and development in KwaZulu‐Natal

Migration and population movement are probably the most neglected of the significant dynamics behind rural poverty in South Africa. Little is known about how people move from place to place, and much of what we thought we knew may be incorrect. In KwaZulu‐Natal job search is no longer the single dominating reason given for migration. Instead, infrastructure ties with it for first place today, with land close behind. The first article in this two‐part report notes that as many as two thirds of the province's disadvantaged families have broken away from their communities of origin and moved at least once during their lifetimes. Perhaps three million have migrated in the last fifteen years. A second unexpected finding is the predominance of rural‐to‐rural migration. Three quarters of all moves recorded were rural to rural, with many orientated towards advantaged rural areas around small towns and secondary cities. Results show how streams are channelled towards poverty or opportunity, and argue for a review of prevailing concepts of rural‐urban relations which structure delivery efforts. The second article, to follow later, notes that recorded income levels are now higher in some rural destination areas than in the urban shack communities that accommodate rural‐to‐urban migrants. Results of various studies presented show how access to information affects migration patterns, and the article also explores the role of infrastructure as a determining force in the regional distribution of population and as a factor in people's own bootstrap anti‐poverty efforts.     

Governing cooperation hazards of outsourced municipal low contractibility transactions: An exploratory configuration approach

Increasingly, public sector organizations (PSOs) outsource the delivering of important welfare services. This gives rise to important questions of how PSOs can control their suppliers. The purpose of this paper is to show how PSOs manage cooperation hazards of low contractibility transactions, i.e., activities expected to be difficult to govern. The paper applies a taxonomic configuration approach which means we apply a holistic view on the governance of suppliers and search for internally congruent governance packages that also are adapted to the context of the transactions. We find indications of the importance of internal congruence in governance packages in order to effectively deal with cooperation hazards. We also notice that the intensity in and types of controls in inter-organizational relationships are affected by the amount of cooperation hazards. A conflict between a relational and a bureaucracy-based governance package in one of the configurations is argued to be the main driver behind lower expectations about positive behaviour from suppliers.     

Does trade integration alter monetary policy transmission?

This paper explores the role of trade integration—or openness—for monetary policy transmission in a medium-scale new Keynesian model. Allowing for strategic complementarities in price setting, we highlight a new dimension of the exchange rate channel by which monetary policy directly impacts domestic inflation: a monetary contraction which appreciates the exchange rate lowers the local currency price of imported goods; this, in turn, induces domestic producers to lower their prices too. We pin down key parameters of the model by matching impulse responses obtained from a vector autoregression on time series for the US relative to the euro area. Our estimation procedure yields plausible parameter values and suggests a strong role for strategic complementarities. Counterfactual simulations show that openness alters monetary transmission significantly. While the contractionary effect of a monetary policy shock on inflation and output tends to increase in openness, we find that monetary policy's control over inflation increases, as the output decline which is necessary to bring about a given reduction of inflation is smaller in more open economies.