Cognitive interviewing as tool for enhancing the accuracy of the interpretation of quantitative findings

This paper contrasts findings from a quantitative survey with those from a cognitive interviewing follow-up investigation on a subset of the same respondents. The data were gathered as part of a larger study to explore measurement error across three modes of data collection, but this paper focuses on the question format experiments rather than the mode effects part of the larger study. Three examples are presented which demonstrate how cognitive interviewing can cast new light on quantitative results by increasing the accuracy of the inferences made. These include instances where: (1) quantitative indicators of poor respondent behaviour (e.g., acquiescence bias on agree/disagree questions) are over-estimates, (2) similar quantitative response distributions across satisfaction and behavioural questions (from a fully-labelled versus end-labelled experiment) imply similar respondent satisficing behaviour, but cognitive interviews show that different response processes are at work and (3) unlikely quantitative findings (from an experiment comparing 3 vs. 7 or 8 response options) could easily be dismissed as due to chance but were instead the result of unforeseen respondent difficulties. The paper concludes with a discussion of the value of using a cognitive interviewing follow-up study as a tool in the interpretation of ambiguous quantitative findings.     

A comparison of alternative bankruptcy prediction models

Early models of bankruptcy prediction employed financial ratios drawn from pre-bankruptcy financial statements and performed well both in-sample and out-of-sample. Since then there has been an ongoing effort in the literature to develop models with even greater predictive performance. A significant innovation in the literature was the introduction into bankruptcy prediction models of capital market data such as excess stock returns and stock return volatility, along with the application of the Black–Scholes–Merton option-pricing model. In this note, we test five key bankruptcy models from the literature using an up-to-date data set and find that they each contain unique information regarding the probability of bankruptcy but that their performance varies over time. We build a new model comprising key variables from each of the five models and add a new variable that proxies for the degree of diversification within the firm. The degree of diversification is shown to be negatively associated with the risk of bankruptcy. This more general model outperforms the existing models in a variety of in-sample and out-of-sample tests.     

Acreage Response to Whole Farm Income Stabilisation Programmes

This article investigates whether Canadian whole farm programmes, which fall under the WTO category of Green Box subsidies, are truly production neutral. Theory suggests that with non‐constant risk aversion, risky decisions can be influenced by both the level of expected wealth (i.e. the wealth effect) and the variability of wealth (i.e. the insurance effect). Unlike previous approaches, this article is able to extend a framework developed by Chavas and Holt to formally incorporate the insurance effect into the acreage allocation decisions. By applying the theoretical model to acreage data in the Canadian Prairies, the results reveal that the whole farm income stabilisation programmes had large impacts on acreage choices through wealth and insurance effects. From a WTO perspective, the results underline the inherent difficulty in designing programmes that will reduce the risk faced by farmers without altering behaviour.     

Bi-Polar: College Education and Loans to Small Businesses Headed by Black Females

This paper uses the 1998 and 2003 Surveys of Small Business Finance (SSBF) to detail the recent experiences of black female headed small businesses (BFHBs) in the capital markets. It documents, a large disparity in the importance of a college education for black and non-black female headed businesses (NFHBs); that the race of a female headed business is an important factor in determining whether a loan is approved; and that although receiving a college education does not remove the cost BFHBs face due to their owner’s race, it is significantly lower than that faced by their peers without a college educated owner. Together, this paper provides striking evidence of taste-based and statistical discrimination , both in violation of the Equal Credit Opportunity Act.     

Environmental Regulation, Investment Timing, and Technology Choice

We test whether environmental regulation affects investment decisions, using Census data for individual paper mills. New mills in states with strict environmental regulations choose cleaner production technologies, with differences in air and water pollution regulation also influencing technology choice. Examining investment allocation across existing plants, we find that abatement and productive investment tend to be scheduled together. However, plants with high abatement investment over the entire period spend significantly less on productive capital. This seems to reflect both environmental investment 'crowding out' productive investment within a plant, and firms shifting investment towards plants facing less stringent abatement requirements.