Regime-switching and interest rates in the European monetary system

This paper examines the impact that a currency target zone has on short-term interest rates. For a number of countries in the European Monetary System, we characterize the short rate using a regime-switching model that allows for a differently parameterized mean-reverting square-root process in each regime. We find that the volatility, the level, and the speed-of-adjustment are all higher in the regime that is operative during speculative attacks and currency crises. Moreover, we allow the conditional probability of being in each regime to be state-dependent so the model can be used to examine questions relating to the likelihood of realignments and the stability of the target zone system.     

Thirty years of social accounting,reporting and auditing: what (if anything) have we learnt?

In an increasingly complex world with increasingly powerful organisations it seems inevitable that society – or groups in society – would become anxious about whether these organisations could be encouraged to match that power with an appropriate responsibility. This is the function of accountability – to require individuals and organisations to present an account of those actions for which society holds them – or would wish to hold them – responsible. And the history of social accounting, at its most fundamental, is a history of attempts to develop this accountability. It seems to me that the widespread and systematic practice of social and environmental accounting is a deeply essential element in any well‐functioning, complex democracy. The corollary is that the absence of such mechanisms raises fundamental questions about the nature of modern democracies. This article briefly outlines what I believe to be the three strands of social accounting. It then identifies a few of the lessons that we may be able to learn from current experience and, in particular, how social accounting is related to accountability, democracy and sustainability. The central issue of the tension between accountability and control is touched upon: I then illustrate how the stakeholder model can be used to help define the social account, and conclude with a few words on attestation.     

Using Limited Information to Support the Decision to Launch a New Product in the Fruit Juice Market: A Teaching Case Study

Fresh Juice Incorporated (FJI) is in the process of determining whether it should launch a new fruit juice, Genetically Enhanced (GE) Juice. The GE Juice meets consumers' demands for a tasty, nutritious product and it would be the first new juice product in the last fifteen years. Before FJI decides to launch GE Juice, it must analyze the uncertainty surrounding market size, market share, and price of GE Juice. Finally, if FJI decides to launch GE Juice, then they must decide if they will bottle the juice themselves or outsource this process. This case teaches students how to discuss the strategic implications of launching a new product and develop a net present value and financial feasibility simulation model given limited information.     

Reviews

“THE POLL TAX” Flannery, Kate, 1987: More than Just a Poll Tax. Centre for Local Economic Strategies, £5.00. MacGregor, Susanne, 1988: The Poll Tax and the Enterprise Culture. Manchester: Centre for Local Economic Strategies, £3.95.

“ECONOMIC THEORY AND THE LOCAL ECONOMY” Smith, D., 1987: The Rise and Fall of Monetarism: The Theory and Politics of an Economic Experiment. Penguin, £3.95.

Holland, S., 1987: The Market Economy: From Micro to Mesoeconomics and The Global Economy: From Meso to Macroeconomics, Weidenfeld, £12.95 each.

Green, F. and Sutcliffe, B., 1987: The Profit System: The Economics of Capitalism. Penguin, £5.95.

“THE SERVICES REVOLUTION?” Rajan, A., 1987: Services: The Second Industrial Revolution? London: Butterworths, £27.50.

“ENVIRONMENT AND ECONOMY IN EUROPE” Joyce, F. E. and Schneider, G. (editors), 1988: Environment and Economic Development in the Regions of the European Community. Aldershot: Avebury/Gower, £18.50 hb.

“POLITICS OF PRIVATISATION” Ascher, K., 1987: The Politics of Privatisation: Contracting Out Public Services. London: Macmillan Education Ltd. £30.00 cloth, £8.95 paper.

“RECRUITMENT AND TRAINING POLICY” Davies, T. and Mason, C., 1986: Shutting out the Inner City Worker. University of Bristol, School for Advanced Urban Studies, £4.30.

Chapman, P. G. and Tooze, M. J., 1987: The Youth Training Scheme in the United Kingdom. Avebury: Gower Publishing Company, £22.50.

“JOB GENERATION RESEARCH” Storey, D. J. and Johnson, S., 1987: Job Generation and Labour Market Change. London: Macmillan.